✦ The 2028 Plan: $56 Billion at a 20% MarginNarrow moat

GE Vernova (GEV) — the future bets

GE Vernova has promised to more than double its margin to 20% by 2028, and most of the revenue to do it is already in the backlog.

GE Vernova has promised a much more profitable company by 2028. The outlook set in January 2026, including Prolec GE, is $56 billion of revenue, a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin and at least $24 billion of cumulative free cash flow over 2025 to 20281. By segment, it expects Power and Electrification at 22% and Wind at 6%2.

Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)2.4%20235.8%20248.4%202511.3%Q2 202620%2028 targetGE Vernova Form 10-K FY2025, Q2 2026 and Q4 2025 releases; 2023-24 calculated
Halfway there in margin terms.

The starting point is far below that. Adjusted EBITDA was $3,196 million in 2025, an 8.4% margin3, and $1,250 million in the second quarter of 2026, 11.3%4. The 2026 guide is 12% to 14%5.

The target was raised in stages: a December 2025 investor update had moved 2028 revenue to $52 billion from $45 billion and the margin to 20% from 14%6. Each raise followed more orders at better prices.

Most of the path is already in the backlog. Equipment backlog was $87,821 million at June 20267, and much of it will be delivered before the end of 20288.

The plan also sets segment targets that show where the money is expected. By 2028 Power should earn 22%, Electrification 22% and Wind 6%9, against 14.7%, 14.9% and minus 6.6% in 202510. Power, the largest segment, has the smallest gap to close; Electrification has already reached 18.4% in a quarter11.

The plan has moved in one direction so far. The 2028 revenue outlook rose from $45 billion to $52 billion in December 2025 and to $56 billion in January 2026, with Prolec GE1213; the cumulative free cash flow outlook rose from at least $14 billion to at least $24 billion over the same two months1415.

The quarterly margin is the check. It was 11.3% in the second quarter of 2026; the plan needs it near 20% within two and a half years, and a 2026 result below the 12% floor of guidance would put the whole target in doubt.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Adjusted EBITDA margin 8.4% (2025) to 11.3% (Q2 2026); target 20% in 2028.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Adjusted EBITDA margin, latest quarter
11.3% (Q2 2026: $1,250M)

Progress toward the 20% target for 2028; a 2026 result below 12% would put the target in doubt.

Source: GE Vernova Q2 2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe outlook set in January 2026, including Prolec GE, is $56 billion of revenue, a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin and at least $24 billion of cumulative free cash flow over 2025 to 2028.
    GE Vernova fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, free cash flow, capital returns, credit upgrades, the gas turbine backlog and the outlook through 2028 including Prolec GE. — Q4 2025 · publ. 28 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedBy segment, it expects Power and Electrification at 22% and Wind at 6%.
    GE Vernova fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, free cash flow, capital returns, credit upgrades, the gas turbine backlog and the outlook through 2028 including Prolec GE. — Q4 2025 · publ. 28 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAdjusted EBITDA was $3,196 million in 2025, an 8.4% margin, and $1,250 million in the second quarter of 2026, 11.3%.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedAdjusted EBITDA was $3,196 million in 2025, an 8.4% margin, and $1,250 million in the second quarter of 2026, 11.3%.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results, orders, backlog and gas turbine slots. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe 2026 guide is 12% to 14%.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe target was raised in stages: a December 2025 investor update had moved 2028 revenue to $52 billion from $45 billion and the margin to 20% from 14%.
    GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update press release - multi-year outlook raised, dividend doubled, buyback authorization raised to $10 billion, backlog target of about $200 billion by 2028 and Electrification backlog doubling. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedEquipment backlog was $87,821 million at June 2026, and much of it will be delivered before the end of 2028.
    GE Vernova Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - the balance sheet, contract liabilities, borrowings, remaining performance obligations, orders and sales in units, business-unit revenue and the Prolec GE acquisition. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedEquipment backlog was $87,821 million at June 2026, and much of it will be delivered before the end of 2028.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - remaining performance obligations note. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedBy 2028 Power should earn 22%, Electrification 22% and Wind 6%, against 14.7%, 14.9% and minus 6.6% in 2025.
    GE Vernova fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, free cash flow, capital returns, credit upgrades, the gas turbine backlog and the outlook through 2028 including Prolec GE. — Q4 2025 · publ. 28 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedBy 2028 Power should earn 22%, Electrification 22% and Wind 6%, against 14.7%, 14.9% and minus 6.6% in 2025.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - segment revenue, segment EBITDA and the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedPower, the largest segment, has the smallest gap to close; Electrification has already reached 18.4% in a quarter.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results, orders, backlog and gas turbine slots. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe 2028 revenue outlook rose from $45 billion to $52 billion in December 2025 and to $56 billion in January 2026, with Prolec GE; the cumulative free cash flow outlook rose from at least $14 billion to at least $24 billion over the same two months.
    GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update press release - multi-year outlook raised, dividend doubled, buyback authorization raised to $10 billion, backlog target of about $200 billion by 2028 and Electrification backlog doubling. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe 2028 revenue outlook rose from $45 billion to $52 billion in December 2025 and to $56 billion in January 2026, with Prolec GE; the cumulative free cash flow outlook rose from at least $14 billion to at least $24 billion over the same two months.
    GE Vernova fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, free cash flow, capital returns, credit upgrades, the gas turbine backlog and the outlook through 2028 including Prolec GE. — Q4 2025 · publ. 28 January 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe 2028 revenue outlook rose from $45 billion to $52 billion in December 2025 and to $56 billion in January 2026, with Prolec GE; the cumulative free cash flow outlook rose from at least $14 billion to at least $24 billion over the same two months.
    GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update press release - multi-year outlook raised, dividend doubled, buyback authorization raised to $10 billion, backlog target of about $200 billion by 2028 and Electrification backlog doubling. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  15. ReportedThe 2028 revenue outlook rose from $45 billion to $52 billion in December 2025 and to $56 billion in January 2026, with Prolec GE; the cumulative free cash flow outlook rose from at least $14 billion to at least $24 billion over the same two months.
    GE Vernova fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, free cash flow, capital returns, credit upgrades, the gas turbine backlog and the outlook through 2028 including Prolec GE. — Q4 2025 · publ. 28 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026