✦ Wind at 6%: The Recovery Plan Cut in HalfThin moat

GE Vernova (GEV) — the future bets

GE Vernova cut its 2028 wind margin target to 6% from 10%, and the first half of 2026 lost more than the full-year guide allows.

GE Vernova's plan for Wind is to make it smaller and profitable. The 2028 target is a 6% EBITDA margin, cut from 10% in the December 2025 update1. For 2026 the company expects Wind organic revenue to fall by a low double-digit percentage and a Wind EBITDA loss of about $400 million2.

Wind EBITDA margin (%)-10.5%2023-6.1%2024-6.6%2025-13.6%Q2 2026+6%2028 targetGE Vernova Form 10-K FY2025, Q2 2026 and Q4 2025 releases; losses as magnitudes
Still negative, with a positive target two years out.

The route is to sell fewer, simpler turbines. About 75% of Wind equipment backlog is in workhorse products3, and Offshore is being run off.

There are wins to point to. The SunZia project in New Mexico, built with GE Vernova's 3.8-megawatt turbines, became operational, "the largest renewable energy infrastructure project in U.S. history" in the company's words4.

The losses have not stopped. Wind EBITDA was minus $275 million in the second quarter of 2026, a margin of minus 13.6%5, and minus $657 million in the first half6.

Onshore revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was $1,721 million and offshore $305 million7, and Wind orders were down 40% organically8. The segment is getting smaller faster than the losses are shrinking.

The quarterly Wind EBITDA is the measure. The 2026 guide implies a loss of about $400 million for the year, yet the first half alone lost $657 million; a full year worse than 2025's minus $598 million would make the 6% target for 2028 look like the next promise to be cut.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Wind EBITDA -$598M (2025); -$657M in H1 2026 against a full-year guide of about -$400M.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Wind segment EBITDA, latest quarter
-$275M (Q2 2026), a -13.6% margin

Progress toward a 6% margin in 2028; a 2026 loss larger than 2025 would put the target in doubt.

Source: GE Vernova Q2 2026 results release ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe 2028 target is a 6% EBITDA margin, cut from 10% in the December 2025 update.
    GE Vernova 2025 Investor Update press release - multi-year outlook raised, dividend doubled, buyback authorization raised to $10 billion, backlog target of about $200 billion by 2028 and Electrification backlog doubling. — December 2025 · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedFor 2026 the company expects Wind organic revenue to fall by a low double-digit percentage and a Wind EBITDA loss of about $400 million.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - raised 2026 guidance. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAbout 75% of Wind equipment backlog is in workhorse products, and Offshore is being run off.
    GE Vernova Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: products, installed base, competitors and employees. — FY2025 · publ. 29 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe SunZia project in New Mexico, built with GE Vernova's 3.8-megawatt turbines, became operational, "the largest renewable energy infrastructure project in U.S. history" in the company's words.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results, orders, backlog and gas turbine slots. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedWind EBITDA was minus $275 million in the second quarter of 2026, a margin of minus 13.6%, and minus $657 million in the first half.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results, orders, backlog and gas turbine slots. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedWind EBITDA was minus $275 million in the second quarter of 2026, a margin of minus 13.6%, and minus $657 million in the first half.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results, orders, backlog and gas turbine slots. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedOnshore revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was $1,721 million and offshore $305 million, and Wind orders were down 40% organically.
    GE Vernova Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - the balance sheet, contract liabilities, borrowings, remaining performance obligations, orders and sales in units, business-unit revenue and the Prolec GE acquisition. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedOnshore revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was $1,721 million and offshore $305 million, and Wind orders were down 40% organically.
    GE Vernova second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K exhibit) - orders, revenue, segment EBITDA, free cash flow, the gas turbine backlog and slot reservations, data-centre orders and raised 2026 guidance - second-quarter results, orders, backlog and gas turbine slots. — Q2 2026 · publ. 22 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026