⚠ A $670 Billion Valuation With No EarningsHigh threat

Intel (INTC) — threat to the moat

Intel is valued at $670 billion, more than seven times its value at the end of 2024, on a turnaround that has not yet produced a profitable year.

Intel's market value is the largest risk on these pages. The shares closed at $127.39 on 24 September 2026, a market value of $669.37 billion1, against a 52-week low of $29.232. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful because Intel lost money: trailing twelve-month revenue was $57.03 billion and losses $11.29 billion3. The price is 11.74 times sales and 75.65 times forward earnings4.

Market value at year end ($bn)2092021109202221220238620241762025669Sep 2026stockanalysis market-cap history
More than seven times its end-2024 value.

For comparison, Intel was worth $86.48 billion at the end of 2024 and $176.01 billion at the end of 20255. The market has priced in a transformation: a foundry that wins outside customers, a data center business that keeps its 2026 margins, and a government that will not let it fail.

Some of that has happened. Revenue grew 25% in the second quarter of 20266 and operating income turned positive7. But analysts' average price target was $116.37, below the share price8, and the company's 10-K still says it has no significant external foundry customer9.

The risk is that the price assumes the best case for every open question at once. Data Center and AI margins at 40%10 came from a shortage; 14A has no named customer; the foundry lost $10,318 million in 202511.

The valuation also depends on profits other shareholders will share. Intel guided net income attributable to non-controlling interests at about $250 million in each of the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and about $1.1 billion a year in 2027 and 202812, much of it the partners' share of factory profits. Enterprise value was $689.93 billion13, and price to book 7.3414, for a company whose equity fell to $87,542 million in June 202615.

What would reprice the shares is a year of results that show the transformation in earnings rather than in expectations. The number is non-GAAP earnings per share: $0.42 in the second quarter of 202616, and a forward multiple near 76 needs it to keep rising for years.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
Price-to-sales ratio
11.74 (24 September 2026); about 1.6 at end-2024

What the market pays for each dollar of revenue; a fall back toward 3-4 would mean the turnaround premium has gone.

Source: INTC statistics (stockanalysis) ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe shares closed at $127.39 on 24 September 2026, a market value of $669.37 billion, against a 52-week low of $29.23.
    Intel (INTC) market data - $127.39 a share at the close on 24 September 2026, market cap $669.37B, 52-week range 29.23-142.35, analyst target $116.37. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe shares closed at $127.39 on 24 September 2026, a market value of $669.37 billion, against a 52-week low of $29.23.
    Intel (INTC) market data - $127.39 a share at the close on 24 September 2026, market cap $669.37B, 52-week range 29.23-142.35, analyst target $116.37. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe trailing price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful because Intel lost money: trailing twelve-month revenue was $57.03 billion and losses $11.29 billion.
    Intel (INTC) statistics - no trailing P/E, forward P/E 75.65, P/S 11.74, P/B 7.34, 5.25 billion shares outstanding, trailing revenue $57.03 billion and losses of $11.29 billion. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe price is 11.74 times sales and 75.65 times forward earnings.
    Intel (INTC) statistics - no trailing P/E, forward P/E 75.65, P/S 11.74, P/B 7.34, 5.25 billion shares outstanding, trailing revenue $57.03 billion and losses of $11.29 billion. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFor comparison, Intel was worth $86.48 billion at the end of 2024 and $176.01 billion at the end of 2025.
    Intel market capitalisation history - year-end values 2015-2025 ($162.57B in 2015, $86.48B in 2024, $176.01B in 2025). — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedRevenue grew 25% in the second quarter of 2026 and operating income turned positive.
    Intel second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedRevenue grew 25% in the second quarter of 2026 and operating income turned positive.
    Intel second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedBut analysts' average price target was $116.37, below the share price, and the company's 10-K still says it has no significant external foundry customer.
    Intel (INTC) market data - $127.39 a share at the close on 24 September 2026, market cap $669.37B, 52-week range 29.23-142.35, analyst target $116.37. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedBut analysts' average price target was $116.37, below the share price, and the company's 10-K still says it has no significant external foundry customer.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedData Center and AI margins at 40% came from a shortage; 14A has no named customer; the foundry lost $10,318 million in 2025.
    Intel Q2 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (CEO and CFO). — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedData Center and AI margins at 40% came from a shortage; 14A has no named customer; the foundry lost $10,318 million in 2025.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedIntel guided net income attributable to non-controlling interests at about $250 million in each of the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and about $1.1 billion a year in 2027 and 2028, much of it the partners' share of factory profits.
    Intel Q2 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (CEO and CFO). — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedEnterprise value was $689.93 billion, and price to book 7.34, for a company whose equity fell to $87,542 million in June 2026.
    Intel (INTC) statistics - no trailing P/E, forward P/E 75.65, P/S 11.74, P/B 7.34, 5.25 billion shares outstanding, trailing revenue $57.03 billion and losses of $11.29 billion. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedEnterprise value was $689.93 billion, and price to book 7.34, for a company whose equity fell to $87,542 million in June 2026.
    Intel (INTC) statistics - no trailing P/E, forward P/E 75.65, P/S 11.74, P/B 7.34, 5.25 billion shares outstanding, trailing revenue $57.03 billion and losses of $11.29 billion. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedEnterprise value was $689.93 billion, and price to book 7.34, for a company whose equity fell to $87,542 million in June 2026.
    Intel second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedThe number is non-GAAP earnings per share: $0.42 in the second quarter of 2026, and a forward multiple near 76 needs it to keep rising for years.
    Intel second-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026