⚠ AMD Has Nearly Half of Server RevenueHigh threat

Intel (INTC) — threat to the moat

By the value of chips sold, AMD now has nearly half of the x86 server market.

Unit share flatters Intel's server position. Mercury Research estimated AMD at 34.5% of server processor units in the second quarter of 20261, but at 46.2% of x86 server processor revenue in the first quarter2. The difference means AMD's server chips sell for considerably more on average than Intel's.

x86 server CPU revenue share, Q1 2026 (%)53.8%Intel46.2%AMDMercury Research via Tom's Hardware; Intel share calculated
Almost an even split by value.

The largest buyers are the ones moving. Intel's 10-K notes that industry changes have increased the purchasing power of certain customers, particularly hyperscalers3, and the cloud companies are also building their own processors.

Intel's current profits come from a shortage that lifts everyone's prices. When supply loosens, customers will choose on performance per dollar, and a revenue share near parity says AMD already wins that contest often.

Intel's own numbers are consistent with that. Data Center and AI revenue was $15,980 million in 2023, $16,125 million in 2024 and $16,919 million in 20254, barely growing through years in which server spending rose sharply. The spending went to AMD, to Nvidia's accelerators and to the cloud companies' own chips.

The next Mercury revenue estimate is the one to read. If AMD passes 50% of server revenue, the franchise Intel built in the data center will have changed hands.

References
  1. Third-party estimateMercury Research estimated AMD at 34.5% of server processor units in the second quarter of 2026, but at 46.2% of x86 server processor revenue in the first quarter.
    HotHardware, Mercury Research Q2 2026: AMD 34.5% of server CPU units, Intel 65.5%. — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateMercury Research estimated AMD at 34.5% of server processor units in the second quarter of 2026, but at 46.2% of x86 server processor revenue in the first quarter.
    Tom's Hardware, Mercury Research Q1 2026: AMD at 46.2% of x86 server CPU revenue and 38.1% of all x86 CPU market value. — Q1 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIntel's 10-K notes that industry changes have increased the purchasing power of certain customers, particularly hyperscalers, and the cloud companies are also building their own processors.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedData Center and AI revenue was $15,980 million in 2023, $16,125 million in 2024 and $16,919 million in 2025, barely growing through years in which server spending rose sharply.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026