China: Half What It Was in 2021Thin moat

Intel (INTC) — moat facet

Intel billed $23 billion in China in 2021 and $12.7 billion in 2025.

Intel reports revenue by the location where it bills customers, and one country has changed more than any other. Revenue billed in China was $22,961 million in 20211, $14,854 million in 2023, $15,532 million in 2024 and $12,694 million in 20252. It was about 24.0% of revenue in 2025, down from about 29.2% in 20243.

Revenue billed in China ($M)22,961202114,854202315,532202412,6942025Intel Forms 10-K FY2023 and FY2025
Down 45% in four years.

The United States became the largest billing region in 2025, at $15,757 million4. Singapore was $9,535 million and Taiwan $7,672 million5, both largely hubs where PC and server makers are invoiced.

Billing location is not the same as where chips end up. But the decline tracks two real pressures: export restrictions on advanced chips, and Chinese customers buying from domestic suppliers. Intel's 10-K lists rising tensions between mainland China and Taiwan among the risks to its business6.

China remains Intel's second-largest billing region. A market that still buys $12.7 billion a year is too large to lose quietly.

The exposure matters beyond revenue. Intel's 10-K notes that China is the primary source of global supply for certain materials and products7, and it relies on Asian sites for assembly and test. A deterioration in relations would affect both what Intel sells there and what it buys.

This is a customer relationship shaped by governments. The number to watch is China billings in 2026; a further fall below $10 billion would say the market is being closed rather than merely shrinking.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

China billings fell again in 2025 after a brief rise in 2024.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue billed in China
$12,694M (2025); $15,532M in 2024

The largest market being closed by policy; a fall below $10bn would say it is closing faster.

Source: Intel Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedRevenue billed in China was $22,961 million in 2021, $14,854 million in 2023, $15,532 million in 2024 and $12,694 million in 2025.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - customer concentration naming Dell, Lenovo and HP, headcount, and revenue by billing region including China in 2021. — FY2023 · publ. January 2024 · source ↗
  2. ReportedRevenue billed in China was $22,961 million in 2021, $14,854 million in 2023, $15,532 million in 2024 and $12,694 million in 2025.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcIt was about 24.0% of revenue in 2025, down from about 29.2% in 2024.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Intel's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment margins 2025: Client Computing 9,317 / 32,228 = 28.9% (2024: 11,594 / 33,346 = 34.8%; Q2 2026: 2,343 / 8,877 = 26.4%); Data Center and AI 945 / 15,980 = 5.9% (2023), 1,414 / 16,125 = 8.8% (2024), 3,422 / 16,919 = 20.2% (2025), 2,474 / 6,262 = 39.5% (Q2 2026); Intel Products 12,739 / 49,147 = 25.9%. Revenue shares 2025: client 32,228 / 52,853 = 61.0%; data center 16,919 / 52,853 = 32.0%; together 49,147 / 52,853 = 93.0%. Client growth Q2 2026: 8,877 / 7,871 - 1 = 12.8%. Foundry: internal revenue 17,826 - 307 = 17,519, 17,519 / 17,826 = 98.3%; external share 307 / 17,826 = 1.7%; operating losses 7,083 + 13,291 + 10,318 = 30,692. Intel share of x86 server revenue Q1 2026: 100 - 46.2 = 53.8%. Revenue 2025 against 2021: 52,853 / 79,024 - 1 = -33.1%. Headcount 82.3 / 124.8 - 1 = -34%. Government stake 433.3M x $127.39 = about 55.2 bn; purchase funds 5.7 + 3.2 = 8.9 bn. Warrants 241M x (127.39 - 20.00) = about 25.9 bn. Nvidia stake 215M x 127.39 = about 27.4 bn; 215 / 4,994 = 4.3%. Backers 11.0 + 8.9 + 5.0 + 2.0 = 26.9 bn. Apollo 14.2 - 11.0 = 3.2 bn. Mobileye 100% - 23% = 77%. Net debt end-2025: (2,499 + 44,086) - (14,265 + 23,151) = 46,585 - 37,416 = 9,169; 27 June 2026: (1,988 + 48,549) - (12,874 + 16,853) = 50,537 - 29,727 = 20,810. Shares: diluted 4,530 / 4,090 - 1 = 10.8% (2021-2025); outstanding June 2026 5,043 against 4,090 diluted in 2021 = 23% more. China share of revenue 12,694 / 52,853 = 24.0% (2025); 15,532 / 53,101 = 29.2% (2024); China 12,694 / 22,961 - 1 = -44.7% (2021-2025). Gross margin 43,815 / 79,024 = 55.4% (2021); 21,711 / 54,228 = 40.0% (2023). R&D 16,546 - 13,774 = 2,772; R&D share of revenue 13,774 / 52,853 = 26.1% (2025), 16,546 / 53,101 = 31.2% (2024). Operating cash flow to gross capital spending 9,697 / 17,672 = 0.55. All Other external revenue: 54,228 - 32,305 - 15,980 - 547 = 5,396 (2023); 53,101 - 33,346 - 16,125 - 159 = 3,471 (2024); 52,853 - 32,228 - 16,919 - 307 = 3,399 (2025). Trailing EPS to June 2026: -0.06 - (-0.19 - 0.67) + (-0.73 - 2.16) = -2.09. Market value 669.37 / 86.48 = 7.7 times end-2024; share price 127.39 / 29.23 = 4.4 times the 52-week low - segment margins, revenue mix and market shares. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Intel's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, prepared remarks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedThe United States became the largest billing region in 2025, at $15,757 million.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedSingapore was $9,535 million and Taiwan $7,672 million, both largely hubs where PC and server makers are invoiced.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 7 MD&A and Note 3: segment revenue, operating income and drivers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIntel's 10-K lists rising tensions between mainland China and Taiwan among the risks to its business.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIntel's 10-K notes that China is the primary source of global supply for certain materials and products, and it relies on Asian sites for assembly and test.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026