✦ Nvidia Inside: x86 Designed With the AI WinnerThin moat

Intel (INTC) — the future bets

Intel's answer to losing the AI market to Nvidia is to build chips with Nvidia.

The most surprising of Intel's bets is a partnership with the company that beat it. Intel and Nvidia agreed a strategic partnership to co-develop custom client and data center products combining Intel's x86 processors with Nvidia's AI technology1, and Nvidia bought 215 million Intel shares for $5.0 billion2.

Intel and NvidiaNvidia purchase215M shares at $23.28, $5.0bnCompleted26 December 2025Partnershipco-developed client and data center productsXeon 6host CPU in DGX Rubin NVL8Stakeabout 4.3%Intel Form 10-K FY2025; Q1 2026 results release
The rival that became a partner.

For Intel the logic is access. Nvidia's GPU systems have experienced the highest demand in the data center3; a place inside them, as the host processor, is worth more than competing against them. Intel's Xeon 6 is already the host CPU in Nvidia's DGX Rubin NVL84.

For Nvidia the logic is optionality: an x86 partner for PCs and servers, and a second manufacturer in the United States.

The risk is dependence. A product line that exists because Nvidia chose to partner can end if Nvidia chooses another partner, and Nvidia works with AMD and Arm designers too.

The partnership also supports Intel's share price, which in turn supports its ability to raise money. Nvidia's 215 million shares5 were worth about $27 billion at September 2026 prices6, a large gain on the $5.0 billion it paid. A partner sitting on a large paper profit has an interest in the partnership continuing.

This bet converts a rival into a customer. The number that would prove it is revenue from the co-developed products once they ship; until Intel discloses them, the $5.0 billion investment is the only figure in the partnership.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Partnership and investment completed; Xeon 6 inside DGX Rubin NVL8.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Server average selling price change, latest quarter
+48% year on year (Q2 2026)

The price of the host CPU inside AI systems; a fall after the shortage would show how much of the partnership's value is scarcity.

Source: Intel Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIntel and Nvidia agreed a strategic partnership to co-develop custom client and data center products combining Intel's x86 processors with Nvidia's AI technology, and Nvidia bought 215 million Intel shares for $5.0 billion.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - financial statements and notes: results, capital, government and partner transactions, restructuring and tax. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIntel and Nvidia agreed a strategic partnership to co-develop custom client and data center products combining Intel's x86 processors with Nvidia's AI technology, and Nvidia bought 215 million Intel shares for $5.0 billion.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - financial statements and notes: results, capital, government and partner transactions, restructuring and tax. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedNvidia's GPU systems have experienced the highest demand in the data center; a place inside them, as the host processor, is worth more than competing against them.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - financial statements and notes: results, capital, government and partner transactions, restructuring and tax. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIntel's Xeon 6 is already the host CPU in Nvidia's DGX Rubin NVL8.
    Intel first-quarter 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1. — Q1 2026 · publ. 23 April 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedNvidia's 215 million shares were worth about $27 billion at September 2026 prices, a large gain on the $5.0 billion it paid.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - financial statements and notes: results, capital, government and partner transactions, restructuring and tax. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcNvidia's 215 million shares were worth about $27 billion at September 2026 prices, a large gain on the $5.0 billion it paid.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Intel's reported figures ($ millions unless stated). Segment margins 2025: Client Computing 9,317 / 32,228 = 28.9% (2024: 11,594 / 33,346 = 34.8%; Q2 2026: 2,343 / 8,877 = 26.4%); Data Center and AI 945 / 15,980 = 5.9% (2023), 1,414 / 16,125 = 8.8% (2024), 3,422 / 16,919 = 20.2% (2025), 2,474 / 6,262 = 39.5% (Q2 2026); Intel Products 12,739 / 49,147 = 25.9%. Revenue shares 2025: client 32,228 / 52,853 = 61.0%; data center 16,919 / 52,853 = 32.0%; together 49,147 / 52,853 = 93.0%. Client growth Q2 2026: 8,877 / 7,871 - 1 = 12.8%. Foundry: internal revenue 17,826 - 307 = 17,519, 17,519 / 17,826 = 98.3%; external share 307 / 17,826 = 1.7%; operating losses 7,083 + 13,291 + 10,318 = 30,692. Intel share of x86 server revenue Q1 2026: 100 - 46.2 = 53.8%. Revenue 2025 against 2021: 52,853 / 79,024 - 1 = -33.1%. Headcount 82.3 / 124.8 - 1 = -34%. Government stake 433.3M x $127.39 = about 55.2 bn; purchase funds 5.7 + 3.2 = 8.9 bn. Warrants 241M x (127.39 - 20.00) = about 25.9 bn. Nvidia stake 215M x 127.39 = about 27.4 bn; 215 / 4,994 = 4.3%. Backers 11.0 + 8.9 + 5.0 + 2.0 = 26.9 bn. Apollo 14.2 - 11.0 = 3.2 bn. Mobileye 100% - 23% = 77%. Net debt end-2025: (2,499 + 44,086) - (14,265 + 23,151) = 46,585 - 37,416 = 9,169; 27 June 2026: (1,988 + 48,549) - (12,874 + 16,853) = 50,537 - 29,727 = 20,810. Shares: diluted 4,530 / 4,090 - 1 = 10.8% (2021-2025); outstanding June 2026 5,043 against 4,090 diluted in 2021 = 23% more. China share of revenue 12,694 / 52,853 = 24.0% (2025); 15,532 / 53,101 = 29.2% (2024); China 12,694 / 22,961 - 1 = -44.7% (2021-2025). Gross margin 43,815 / 79,024 = 55.4% (2021); 21,711 / 54,228 = 40.0% (2023). R&D 16,546 - 13,774 = 2,772; R&D share of revenue 13,774 / 52,853 = 26.1% (2025), 16,546 / 53,101 = 31.2% (2024). Operating cash flow to gross capital spending 9,697 / 17,672 = 0.55. All Other external revenue: 54,228 - 32,305 - 15,980 - 547 = 5,396 (2023); 53,101 - 33,346 - 16,125 - 159 = 3,471 (2024); 52,853 - 32,228 - 16,919 - 307 = 3,399 (2025). Trailing EPS to June 2026: -0.06 - (-0.19 - 0.67) + (-0.73 - 2.16) = -2.09. Market value 669.37 / 86.48 = 7.7 times end-2024; share price 127.39 / 29.23 = 4.4 times the 52-week low - capital, ownership and valuation. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Intel's Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, prepared remarks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026