⚠ Memory Prices Shrink the PC MarketModerate threat

Intel (INTC) — threat to the moat

Rising memory prices make PCs more expensive and fewer, and Intel's client business shrinks with them.

Intel's client business depends on a market it does not set the price of. Its 10-K warns that industry-wide shortages of substrates, memory and other critical components may further limit its ability to meet customer demand in 20261, and in July 2026 management said it expected the client market to decline this year, impacted by rising memory prices2.

Client business, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025 (%)+27%Average selling price-8%Unit volumeIntel Form 10-Q, Q2 2026
Higher prices, fewer chips.

Memory is a large part of a PC's cost. When it rises, PC makers either raise prices and sell fewer machines, or cut costs elsewhere, including on the processor. Neither helps Intel.

So far Intel has offset lower volume with higher prices: client average selling prices rose 27% in the second quarter while volume fell 8%3. That works while chips are scarce.

The shortage in memory is one Intel cannot fix, because it no longer makes memory. It completed the sale of its NAND business to SK hynix in 2025, receiving $1.8 billion of cash at the second closing4. The components that now constrain PC makers come from suppliers Intel does not control.

Client unit volume is the sign to watch. Another year of declines once Intel's own supply is no longer the constraint would say the market is shrinking under it.

References
  1. ReportedIts 10-K warns that industry-wide shortages of substrates, memory and other critical components may further limit its ability to meet customer demand in 2026, and in July 2026 management said it expected the client market to decline this year, impacted by rising memory prices.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIts 10-K warns that industry-wide shortages of substrates, memory and other critical components may further limit its ability to meet customer demand in 2026, and in July 2026 management said it expected the client market to decline this year, impacted by rising memory prices.
    Intel Q2 2026 earnings call prepared remarks (CEO and CFO). — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedSo far Intel has offset lower volume with higher prices: client average selling prices rose 27% in the second quarter while volume fell 8%.
    Intel Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 - segments, the Ireland SCIP repurchase, escrowed shares, Intel 14A, customer deposits and debt. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt completed the sale of its NAND business to SK hynix in 2025, receiving $1.8 billion of cash at the second closing.
    Intel Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 27 December 2025) - Item 1 business: products, process technology, competition, manufacturing and customers. — FY2025 · publ. 23 January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 25, 2026