⚠ Belize Is a Jurisdiction, Not a StrategyModerate threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

Latin American revenue fell 39 per cent in the half-year, in the region the offshore subsidiary exists to serve.

Serving European-quality volumes from light-touch jurisdictions works until one of three things happens, and all three have precedent in this industry.

Latin American operating income, PLN m202320242025H1 2025 x2H1 2026 x2H1 2026 was 60,1m against 98,7m a year earlier, a fall of 39 per cent
The region the offshore subsidiary exists to serve is going backwards.

The first is that the jurisdiction changes. Small international financial centres compete for licensing revenue and periodically lose the argument with larger regulators or with international standard-setters; a firm whose product depends on a leverage regime not available in Europe is exposed to any tightening in the place that permits it. XTB's own group has a Turkish entity in liquidation and a Cypriot entity that was wound up in September 2025, which is what the ordinary churn of that map looks like.1

The second is that the clients turn out to be worse. Higher leverage produces faster account depletion, and a client who loses everything in a fortnight is not a customer for the second year. XTB does not disclose retention by region, but the direction of Latin American revenue is not encouraging: 148 million złoty in 2023, 118 million in 2024, 128 million in 2025 and then 60 million in the first half of 2026 against 99 million a year earlier, a fall of 39 per cent in the region the offshore entity exists to serve.2

The third is reputational. A Warsaw-listed company with nine regulators and a European brand cannot afford to have its offshore arm become the story.3

What would confirm the concern is Latin American revenue continuing to fall while marketing spend in the region does not.

References
  1. ReportedXTB's own group has a Turkish entity in liquidation and a Cypriot entity that was wound up in September 2025, which is what the ordinary churn of that map looks like.
    XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, balance sheet, off-balance-sheet items, employment, capital and shareholders - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 31 December 2025 and 31 December 2024: Index CFDs 3 933 252 and 3 766 277; Commodity CFDs 6 216 958 and 3 705 548; Currency CFDs 3 284 496 and 2 952 168; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 615 397 and 1 169 077; Bond CFDs 1 553 and 11 126; total 15 051 656 and 11 604 196, of which transactions with brokers represent 16% at 31 December 2025 and 14% at 31 December 2024; clients' financial instruments held in brokerage accounts: listed stocks and rights to stocks 15 138 542 and 7 907 437; ETFs 12 144 808 and 5 773 953; other securities 207 and 207; total 27 283 557 and 13 681 597; contributions made to the compensation scheme with an opening balance of 17 923 and a closing balance of 23 981; total employment in the Group at 31 December 2025 of 1 516 people against 1 245 at 31 December 2024, including persons under employment contract and other forms of civil law contract including B2B; the Parent Company supervised by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority under a permit dated 8 November 2005, No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005, registered in the National Court Register under KRS 0000217580 with its seat at ul. Prosta 67, 00-838 Warszawa; foreign branches in the Czech Republic, Spain, Slovakia, Romania, Germany, France and Portugal; subsidiaries including XTB International Ltd (Belize), XTB MENA Limited and XTB Financial Services L.L.C (United Arab Emirates), PT XTB Indonesia Berjangka (90%), XTB Agente de Valores SpA (Chile), XTB Services Limited (Cyprus), X Open Hub Sp. z o.o. (Poland), XTB S.C. Limited (Seychelles), XTB Africa (PTY) Ltd (South Africa) and a Turkish entity in liquidation, with XTB Digital Ltd of Cyprus liquidated in September 2025; share capital of 117 383 635 series A shares and 185 616 series B shares of nominal value PLN 0,05, each carrying one vote with no preference; XXZW Investment Group S.A. of Luxembourg, controlled by Jakub Zablocki, holding 51 472 869 shares or 43,78% at 1 January 2025 and 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 31 December 2025, which gives the company control even though it holds less than 50%; dividends of 640 753 thousand złoty paid during 2025 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedXTB does not disclose retention by region, but the direction of Latin American revenue is not encouraging: 148 million złoty in 2023, 118 million in 2024, 128 million in 2025 and then 60 million in the first half of 2026 against 99 million a year earlier, a fall of 39 per cent in the region the offshore entity exists to serve.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, operational data - quarterly series for Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025, Q2 2025, Q1 2025, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 in that order: total operating income 992 558, 1 094 018, 609 344, 375 821, 580 597, 580 294, 465 416 and 470 234 thousand złoty; transaction volume in CFD instruments in nominal value 1 029 179, 1 333 410, 1 605 005, 1 118 278, 1 144 554, 937 867, 727 854 and 695 315 million dollars; profitability for USD 1 million of transaction volume 238, 216, 93, 84, 128, 144, 147 and 167 dollars; transaction volume in CFD instruments 1 831 627, 2 323 204, 2 542 526, 2 094 296, 2 321 584, 1 907 974, 1 657 390 and 1 627 978 lots; profitability per lot 484, 439, 208, 152, 229, 277, 253 and 272 złoty; marketing expenses 200 081, 235 429, 179 195, 141 495, 123 322, 141 034, 116 855 and 71 613 thousand złoty with client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,9, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7 and 0,6 thousand złoty; structure of the gross result in H1 2026 Commodity CFDs 75,3%, Index CFDs 13,9%, Currency CFDs 5,0% and other 5,8%, against H1 2025 Index CFDs 46,3%, Commodity CFDs 33,1%, Currency CFDs 15,6% and other 5,0%; share of CFD turnover by trading platform for the same eight quarters: xStation 30, 29, 29, 27, 35, 37, 36 and 38 per cent, xStation Mobile 61, 60, 64, 62, 59, 56, 56 and 57 per cent and MT4 9, 11, 7, 11, 6, 7, 9 and 8 per cent; own cash 2 934 090 at 30 June 2026 against 1 994 027 at 31 December 2025, up 47,1%, with no bonds; dividend per share of 1,5 for 2021, 4,86 for 2022, 5,02 for 2023, 5,45 for 2024 and 4,07 for 2025, the 2025 dividend being PLN 478,5 million or 75% of standalone net profit with a record date of 15 June 2026 and payment on 24 June 2026 — Q3 2024 - Q2 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedA Warsaw-listed company with nine regulators and a European brand cannot afford to have its offshore arm become the story.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026