⚠ Surplus Capital Earns a Surplus ReturnLow threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

Equity did not grow at all in 2025, because a buffer this large has nowhere useful to go.

The uncomfortable arithmetic of a 186 per cent capital ratio is that shareholders are funding a buffer the business does not use.1 Equity was 2 000 million złoty at the end of 2025 and 2 004 million a year earlier: it did not grow at all, because everything earned was paid out.2 That is a sensible answer to having too much capital, and it also means the company has no retained earnings to deploy against anything except the marketing budget.

Shareholders equity, PLN m4912019888202091620211 50620221 73520232 00420242 0012025Equity fell 0,2 per cent in 2025 because everything earned was distributed
A buffer this large has nowhere useful to go, so it is paid out instead.

The deeper issue is what the buffer is protecting against, because the risk it insures is not the one most investors are watching. A market maker's capital is consumed by a disorderly move in an instrument where its clients are all positioned the same way, and XTB's exposure to that has been rising: transactions with outside brokers fell from 16 per cent of derivative notional at the end of 2025 to 8 per cent at the end of June 2026, in a half-year when commodities went from a third of gross gain to three quarters.3 The buffer got larger and so did the reason for it.

Capital also cannot be used competitively. It cannot buy a client, a licence in a new market, or a product a rival already has. In a business where the marginal spend that produces growth is advertising, a balance sheet is not a weapon.

What to watch is whether equity ever grows again. If XTB starts retaining earnings, it has found something to do with them, and the payout ratio will say so first.

References
  1. ReportedThe uncomfortable arithmetic of a 186 per cent capital ratio is that shareholders are funding a buffer the business does not use.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, synthetic summary of data for 2019-2025 (values for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 in that order): market value of the Company's shares at period end 71,8, 70,4, 37,8, 31,0, 16,8, 17,9 and 4,0 złoty; earnings per share 5,5, 7,3, 6,7, 6,5, 2,0, 3,4 and 0,5; equity 2 000,5, 2 003,6, 1 734,7, 1 506,1, 915,6, 888,3 and 490,7 million złoty; group total capital ratio 186,0, 192,3, 188,7, 218,1, 200,1, 200,1 and 165,8 per cent; EBITDA 857,8, 1 006,6, 941,4, 897,7, 285,7, 523,5 and 72,2 million złoty; EBITDA margin 40,0, 53,7, 58,2, 62,2, 45,7, 65,6 and 30,2 per cent; net profit margin 30,0, 45,7, 48,9, 53,0, 38,0, 50,4 and 24,1 per cent; return on equity 32,2, 45,8, 48,8, 63,3, 26,4, 58,3 and 12,2 per cent; return on assets 8,2, 15,1, 18,0, 21,1, 8,8, 23,5 and 5,5 per cent; new clients 864,3, 498,4, 312,0, 196,9, 189,2, 112,0 and 36,6 thousand; total clients 2 164,9, 1 361,6, 897,6, 614,9, 429,2, 255,8 and 149,3 thousand; active clients 1 189,4, 701,1, 418,4, 270,6, 193,2, 108,3 and 49,6 thousand; net deposits 14 672,3, 8 607,3, 3 793,7, 3 423,2, 2 933,4, 1 961,2 and 409,4 million złoty; average operating revenue per active client 1,8, 2,7, 3,9, 5,4, 3,2, 7,4 and 5,1 thousand złoty; average client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,7, 0,8, 1,1, 0,6, 0,8 and 1,0 thousand złoty; turnover in CFD derivative instruments 8 866,4, 6 274,2, 6 779,8, 6 592,9, 4 045,9, 3 113,4 and 1 638,6 thousand lots; profitability per lot 215, 275, 227, 212, 144, 249 and 140 złoty; stock and ETF volume in nominal value 21 812,5, 9 574,1, 4 512,7, 3 336,3, 4 437,3, 1 643,3 and 178,8 million dollars; turnover in CFD derivatives in notional value 4 805,7, 2 626,6, 2 285,9, 2 259,6, 1 737,4, 1 021,8 and 541,5 million dollars; standalone operating income 1 908,4 and net profit 638,9 million złoty; balance sheet total 9 086,7 million złoty — FY2019-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedEquity was 2 000 million złoty at the end of 2025 and 2 004 million a year earlier: it did not grow at all, because everything earned was paid out.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, synthetic summary of data for 2019-2025 (values for 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019 in that order): market value of the Company's shares at period end 71,8, 70,4, 37,8, 31,0, 16,8, 17,9 and 4,0 złoty; earnings per share 5,5, 7,3, 6,7, 6,5, 2,0, 3,4 and 0,5; equity 2 000,5, 2 003,6, 1 734,7, 1 506,1, 915,6, 888,3 and 490,7 million złoty; group total capital ratio 186,0, 192,3, 188,7, 218,1, 200,1, 200,1 and 165,8 per cent; EBITDA 857,8, 1 006,6, 941,4, 897,7, 285,7, 523,5 and 72,2 million złoty; EBITDA margin 40,0, 53,7, 58,2, 62,2, 45,7, 65,6 and 30,2 per cent; net profit margin 30,0, 45,7, 48,9, 53,0, 38,0, 50,4 and 24,1 per cent; return on equity 32,2, 45,8, 48,8, 63,3, 26,4, 58,3 and 12,2 per cent; return on assets 8,2, 15,1, 18,0, 21,1, 8,8, 23,5 and 5,5 per cent; new clients 864,3, 498,4, 312,0, 196,9, 189,2, 112,0 and 36,6 thousand; total clients 2 164,9, 1 361,6, 897,6, 614,9, 429,2, 255,8 and 149,3 thousand; active clients 1 189,4, 701,1, 418,4, 270,6, 193,2, 108,3 and 49,6 thousand; net deposits 14 672,3, 8 607,3, 3 793,7, 3 423,2, 2 933,4, 1 961,2 and 409,4 million złoty; average operating revenue per active client 1,8, 2,7, 3,9, 5,4, 3,2, 7,4 and 5,1 thousand złoty; average client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,7, 0,8, 1,1, 0,6, 0,8 and 1,0 thousand złoty; turnover in CFD derivative instruments 8 866,4, 6 274,2, 6 779,8, 6 592,9, 4 045,9, 3 113,4 and 1 638,6 thousand lots; profitability per lot 215, 275, 227, 212, 144, 249 and 140 złoty; stock and ETF volume in nominal value 21 812,5, 9 574,1, 4 512,7, 3 336,3, 4 437,3, 1 643,3 and 178,8 million dollars; turnover in CFD derivatives in notional value 4 805,7, 2 626,6, 2 285,9, 2 259,6, 1 737,4, 1 021,8 and 541,5 million dollars; standalone operating income 1 908,4 and net profit 638,9 million złoty; balance sheet total 9 086,7 million złoty — FY2019-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedA market maker's capital is consumed by a disorderly move in an instrument where its clients are all positioned the same way, and XTB's exposure to that has been rising: transactions with outside brokers fell from 16 per cent of derivative notional at the end of 2025 to 8 per cent at the end of June 2026, in a half-year when commodities went from a third of gross gain to three quarters.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026