⚠ Three Point Two Times, and Nobody Forecasts ItHigh threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

Management guides on client count because that is the only variable it controls; the one that decides revenue is not modelled by anybody.

XTB guides on one thing: how many new clients it intends to acquire. Its 2026 ambition is at least 250 000 to 290 000 a quarter, and beyond that roughly 30 per cent annual growth in new clients through 2029 at an acquisition cost similar to recent years.1 There is no guidance on revenue, on margin per contract, or on anything that would let an outsider translate clients into money.

Two quarters that make the point2 543kQ4 2025 lots609m złQ4 2025 income1 832kQ2 2026 lots993m złQ2 2026 incomeThe busiest quarter in the series earned 609m zł; the quietest of 2026 earned 993m zł
Busiest quarter, worst result. Quietest quarter, best result.

That is not evasion. It is an accurate reflection of what management can and cannot influence. The client count is bought with a marketing budget the board sets. Profitability per lot is produced by the volatility of gold and the American indices, the direction retail traders happen to take, and how much of the resulting exposure the trading desk chose to keep. None of the three is forecastable a quarter ahead, and the first two are not forecastable at all.

The consequence is that the analyst consensus for this company is an estimate of an unmodellable variable dressed as an earnings number. Four analysts cover it. Their 2026 revenue estimates run from 3,5 billion złoty to 4,0 billion, a spread of 14 per cent, on a business whose quarterly revenue has moved by a factor of 2,9 inside two years.2

The practical effect is on the multiple. A business whose earnings cannot be projected does not earn a projection-based valuation, which is most of why a company growing operating income at 15 per cent a year trades at 14 times earnings.3

The falsifying number is a run of four consecutive quarters with profitability per lot inside a narrow band. It has never happened.

References
  1. ReportedIts 2026 ambition is at least 250 000 to 290 000 a quarter, and beyond that roughly 30 per cent annual growth in new clients through 2029 at an acquisition cost similar to recent years.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, client assets and acquisition targets - at the end of 2025 the value of XTB clients' cash exceeded PLN 5,8 billion, up 56,3%, and the nominal value of instruments deposited by clients increased by 99,4% to PLN 27,3 billion, while the nominal value of derivative instruments rose PLN 2,6 billion; client assets by category were clients' funds 5 864, instruments held in brokerage accounts 27 284 and notional value of clients' derivative transactions 12 654, a total of 45 802 million złoty at 31 December 2025 against 27 460 at 31 December 2024 and 17 326 in 2023; in 2025 the Management Board intended to acquire an average of at least 150 000 to 210 000 new clients per quarter and the number of new clients by quarter was 194 304, 167 339, 221 762 and 280 881 against 129 747, 102 569, 108 104 and 158 018 in 2024; in 2026 the Management Board's ambition is to acquire an average of at least 250 000 to 290 000 new clients per quarter, with 246 438 acquired in January and February 2026; in the medium term, 2027 to 2029, the Board will strive for an increase in new clients of approximately 30% year on year while assuming average client acquisition cost at a similar level to 2023-2026; the Board's ambition is for XTB to be associated with the leading all-in-one investment application in Europe; business goals are strengthening the position in Western and Central and Eastern European markets, further geographic expansion into new markets including Latin America and Asia, further development of the institutional client segment through X Open Hub, and expanding the product and service offering; the ESG Strategy for 2024-2027 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. Third-party estimateTheir 2026 revenue estimates run from 3,5 billion złoty to 4,0 billion, a spread of 14 per cent, on a business whose quarterly revenue has moved by a factor of 2,9 inside two years.
    Analyst consensus for XTB S.A. compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence and published by stockanalysis.com - four analysts covering the stock, with a consensus rating of Buy and an average price target of 163,19 złoty against a low of 155,00, a median of 159,50 and a high of 178,75; forecast revenue of 3,69 billion złoty for 2026, up 73,64%, with a high estimate of 4,0 billion and a low of 3,5 billion, and 3,85 billion for 2027, up 4,42%; forecast operating income of 1,95 billion and net income of 1,66 billion for 2026; earnings per share of 15,03 for 2026 and 16,02 for 2027, up 6,53%; dividend per share of 6,96 for 2026, up 71,08%; forward price-earnings of 9,60. Earnings per share and forward price-earnings are based on non-GAAP adjusted numbers — FY2026-FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcA business whose earnings cannot be projected does not earn a projection-based valuation, which is most of why a company growing operating income at 15 per cent a year trades at 14 times earnings.
    Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026