Ninety-Two Per Cent Stays on the BookNarrow moat

XTB (XTB) — moat facet

The hedge halved in the six months that produced record profit, which is the same sentence read two ways.

The off-balance-sheet note is the most revealing disclosure XTB makes, and almost nobody reads it. Total derivative notional was 15 052 million złoty at the end of 2025 and 11 712 million at the end of June 2026, and the proportion of it transacted with outside brokers rather than with clients went from 16 per cent to 8.1

Commodities: a smaller book, four times the gain6 217m złNotional 31 Dec 253 968m złNotional 30 Jun 26380m złGross gain H1 20251 555m złGross gain H1 2026Broker share of total notional fell from 16 per cent to 8 over the same period
Less exposure carried, far more earned on it. That is an unhedged book.

That number is the hedge. When XTB lays a client position off with an institutional counterparty it stops being exposed to the outcome and keeps only the spread; when it does not, it holds the other side. Halving the proportion means the company chose to retain more of its clients' exposure in the six months when commodities went from a third of gross gain to three quarters.2

The composition moved with it. Commodity notional fell from 6 217 million złoty to 3 968 million while commodity gross gain rose more than fourfold to 1 555 million: XTB earned far more from a much smaller book.3 That is what a market maker looks like when the clients are wrong and the house is not hedged.

There is nothing improper here. XTB discloses a limit framework covering maximum open position per instrument, currency exposure limits and maximum single order size, monitored by a trading department and reviewed by risk control, with hedges entered when limits are exceeded.4 The limits are internal, which means the appetite is a management decision.

Across eighteen months the broker share of notional has ranged from 8 to 16 per cent.5 The low end is where the earnings and the risk are both largest, and it is where the company sits now.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Hedging halved in the half-year when commodity exposure went from a third of gross gain to three quarters. The decision was profitable and it is the same decision that would have magnified a loss, disclosed after the fact as a single percentage.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Commodity derivative notional
3 968m zł at 30 June 2026, from 6 217m zł, while commodity gross gain quadrupled

Commodity notional fell from 6 217 million złoty at the end of 2025 to 3 968 million six months later while gross gain on commodity contracts rose more than fourfold to 1 555 million. XTB earned far more from a much smaller book, which is what a market maker looks like when clients are wrong and the position is not laid off. Watch the two together rather than either alone.

Source: XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
The Clients Can Be Right
Twenty-six per cent of accounts make money, and their gains are not capped the way their losses are.
References
  1. ReportedTotal derivative notional was 15 052 million złoty at the end of 2025 and 11 712 million at the end of June 2026, and the proportion of it transacted with outside brokers rather than with clients went from 16 per cent to 8.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedHalving the proportion means the company chose to retain more of its clients' exposure in the six months when commodities went from a third of gross gain to three quarters.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCommodity notional fell from 6 217 million złoty to 3 968 million while commodity gross gain rose more than fourfold to 1 555 million: XTB earned far more from a much smaller book.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, operational data - quarterly series for Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025, Q2 2025, Q1 2025, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 in that order: total operating income 992 558, 1 094 018, 609 344, 375 821, 580 597, 580 294, 465 416 and 470 234 thousand złoty; transaction volume in CFD instruments in nominal value 1 029 179, 1 333 410, 1 605 005, 1 118 278, 1 144 554, 937 867, 727 854 and 695 315 million dollars; profitability for USD 1 million of transaction volume 238, 216, 93, 84, 128, 144, 147 and 167 dollars; transaction volume in CFD instruments 1 831 627, 2 323 204, 2 542 526, 2 094 296, 2 321 584, 1 907 974, 1 657 390 and 1 627 978 lots; profitability per lot 484, 439, 208, 152, 229, 277, 253 and 272 złoty; marketing expenses 200 081, 235 429, 179 195, 141 495, 123 322, 141 034, 116 855 and 71 613 thousand złoty with client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,9, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7 and 0,6 thousand złoty; structure of the gross result in H1 2026 Commodity CFDs 75,3%, Index CFDs 13,9%, Currency CFDs 5,0% and other 5,8%, against H1 2025 Index CFDs 46,3%, Commodity CFDs 33,1%, Currency CFDs 15,6% and other 5,0%; share of CFD turnover by trading platform for the same eight quarters: xStation 30, 29, 29, 27, 35, 37, 36 and 38 per cent, xStation Mobile 61, 60, 64, 62, 59, 56, 56 and 57 per cent and MT4 9, 11, 7, 11, 6, 7, 9 and 8 per cent; own cash 2 934 090 at 30 June 2026 against 1 994 027 at 31 December 2025, up 47,1%, with no bonds; dividend per share of 1,5 for 2021, 4,86 for 2022, 5,02 for 2023, 5,45 for 2024 and 4,07 for 2025, the 2025 dividend being PLN 478,5 million or 75% of standalone net profit with a record date of 15 June 2026 and payment on 24 June 2026 — Q3 2024 - Q2 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedXTB discloses a limit framework covering maximum open position per instrument, currency exposure limits and maximum single order size, monitored by a trading department and reviewed by risk control, with hedges entered when limits are exceeded.
    XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, risk management - the Group's key market risk management objective is to mitigate the impact of such risk on the profitability of its operations; as part of the internal procedures the Group applies limits to mitigate market risk connected with maintaining open positions on financial instruments, in particular a maximum open position on a given instrument, currency exposure limits and a maximum value of a single instruction; the Trading Department monitors open positions subject to limits on a current basis and, in case of excesses, enters into appropriate hedging transactions, while the Risk Control Department reviews limit usage on a regular basis and controls the hedges entered into; currency risk arises because the Group enters into transactions principally in instruments bearing currency risk, offers instruments priced in foreign currencies, and holds assets in foreign currencies including the brokerage's own funds held for settling transactions in foreign markets; the Legal and Compliance Department is responsible for legal and compliance risks with a Compliance Officer proactively managing compliance risk and supporting business units in interpreting the regulatory environment including the requirements of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority and the European Securities and Markets Authority — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAcross eighteen months the broker share of notional has ranged from 8 to 16 per cent.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026