✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

XTB (XTB) — the future bets

Four attempts to earn money when nobody is trading, and a Polish tax reform that could deliver the customers.

1. Moat Explorer calcThe derivative business produced 96 per cent of gross gain in 2025 and has been narrowed by regulation once already; average operating revenue per active client has fallen from 7 400 złoty in 2020 to 1 800; and the market values the whole company at 14 times a trailing twelve months that contains the two best quarters in its history.
   Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
2. ReportedThe first is a Polish tax wrapper the state is creating in 2026, aimed at exactly the money XTB wants.
   XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
3. ReportedThe second is a product roadmap that keeps adding things which are not contracts for difference: spot cryptocurrency, options, extended hours, a Cash ISA, investment plans.
   XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, activities and products - the Cash ISA for United Kingdom residents launched in Q1 2026 with flexible tax-free interest compounding, a GBP 20 000 annual contribution limit, the option to withdraw and re-deposit funds without losing the allowance, fee-free transactions and FSCS protection up to GBP 120 000; spot crypto trading launched for clients in Cyprus based on a CySEC licence and MiCA standards and expanded to Chile with access to 46 of the most popular cryptocurrencies; extended trading hours for nearly 1 000 key European stocks and ETFs from 7:30 AM to 10:00 PM; an AI module for analyzing media sentiment; self-selection and closing of individual stock and ETF positions as an alternative to the automatic FIFO rule; full access to and management of IKE and IKZE retirement accounts from desktop computers; additional regulatory licences in the United Arab Emirates; the incorporation of XTB Lithuania UAB in Vilnius on 1 June 2026; a securities agent licence for the Chilean subsidiary; a global partnership with the International Basketball Federation (FIBA) as official sponsor of the men's and women's World Cups and title sponsor of the European Qualifiers; a partnership with SSC Napoli, XTB's first with a football club from Europe's top five leagues, running to the end of the 2026/2027 season and aimed at the Italian market; tennis player sponsorships at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; and a product roadmap with cryptoassets, an OKI account for clients in Poland, long-term investment products and margin trading in progress, and options, expansion of the pension account offering in other European countries and Investment Plans 2,0 planned — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
4. ReportedShares and funds produced 78 million złoty of gross gain in 2025 and net interest 78 million more, together 7 per cent of revenue.
   XTB Group consolidated financial statements for 2025, comprehensive income statement and revenue notes - total operating income 2 146 056 against 1 873 436; income from fees and charges 20 287 against 12 291; other income 3 198; marketing (584 898) against (344 808); salaries and employee benefits (413 019) against (311 574); commission expenses (107 415) against (97 289); other external services (132 846) against (79 226); amortisation and depreciation (25 405) against (19 905); taxes and fees (15 955) against (13 109); costs of maintenance and lease of buildings (10 559) against (7 999); other costs (23 580) against (12 791); total operating expenses (1 313 677) against (886 701); profit on operating activities 832 379 against 986 735; finance income 39 603 against 62 845 including interest income on financial instruments at amortized cost 26 538 and income on bonds 12 744 against 26 138 and foreign exchange gains of nil against 10 307; finance costs (94 594) against (1 129), of which foreign exchange losses (93 125) against nil, relating to unrealised differences on the measurement of balance sheet items denominated in a currency other than the functional currency; profit before tax 777 388 against 1 048 451; income tax (133 189) against (191 595); net profit 644 199 against 856 856; basic earnings per share 5,48 against 7,29. Result of operations in financial instruments by class for 2025 and 2024: Commodity CFDs 923 714 and 896 672; Index CFDs 760 736 and 622 728; Currency CFDs 290 408 and 272 276; Stock and ETP CFDs 60 047 and 44 762; Bond CFDs 101 and 735; total CFDs 2 035 006 and 1 837 173; Stocks and ETPs 78 310 and 30 654; gross gain on transactions in financial instruments 2 113 316 and 1 867 827; bonuses and discounts paid to customers (17 328) and (12 629); commission paid to cooperating brokers (51 406) and (54 623); net gain on transactions in financial instruments 2 044 582 and 1 800 575; interest income on client funds 140 129 and interest paid to clients (62 140), giving net interest income of 77 989 and 58 989 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
5. Moat Explorer calcThe measure across all four is the same one: the ratio of gross gain on shares and funds to gross gain on contracts for difference, 3,8 per cent in 2025 against 0,7 per cent two years earlier.
   Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗

• XTB Group consolidated annual report for 2025
• XTB results presentation for H1 2026