⚠ Small Accounts Cost the Same to ServeModerate threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

Two point eight million accounts holding 15 300 złoty each is a great deal of fixed cost per złoty of revenue.

Every account carries a fixed cost regardless of size: onboarding checks, anti-money-laundering monitoring, statements, tax reporting, support, and a contribution to the investor compensation scheme calculated on client assets. XTB's contributions to that scheme rose from 17,9 million złoty to 24,0 million during 2025 and to 28,3 million six months later, growing with the asset base rather than with the revenue it produces.1

Fixed costs that scale with accounts, not with revenue17,9m złCompensationscheme 202424,0m złCompensationscheme 202528,3m złCompensationscheme Jun 260,9k złRev peractive Q1 260,7k złRev per active Q2 26Contributions are calculated on client assets, which grew 59 per cent in six months
The compensation levy grows with the assets, not with what they earn.

The economics of a savings platform are therefore the reverse of the economics of a market-making book. A leveraged trader with a small balance generates revenue out of all proportion to their assets. A saver with a monthly contribution generates almost none until the balance is large, which takes years. XTB currently has 2 825 700 clients holding an average of about 15 300 złoty of instruments each, and it is adding them at roughly 700 000 a half-year, which means the average is being pulled down by new arrivals as fast as it is pushed up by contributions.2

The route to profitability on that base is fees on assets, and XTB has deliberately chosen not to charge them: no commission on shares and funds up to 100 000 euros of turnover, no withdrawal fee, no custody charge disclosed.3 The revenue has to come from currency conversion, from interest retained on cash, or from the same clients occasionally trading a contract for difference.

Average operating revenue per active client was 700 złoty in the second quarter of 2026 against 900 in the first.4 On a base growing this fast, that figure falls before it rises.

References
  1. ReportedXTB's contributions to that scheme rose from 17,9 million złoty to 24,0 million during 2025 and to 28,3 million six months later, growing with the asset base rather than with the revenue it produces.
    XTB Group half-year report for the first half of 2026, notes - nominal value of derivative financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: Index CFDs 3 642 905 and 3 933 252; Commodity CFDs 3 967 775 and 6 216 958; Currency CFDs 2 204 780 and 3 284 496; Stock and ETF CFDs 1 767 315 and 1 615 397; Bond CFDs 4 118 and 1 553; Options 125 478 and nil; total 11 712 371 and 15 051 656, and as at 30 June 2026 transactions with brokers represent 8% of the total nominal value of instruments against 16% at 31 December 2025; clients' financial instruments at 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2025: listed stocks and rights to stocks 23 345 382 and 15 138 542; ETFs 20 018 050 and 12 144 808; other securities 207 and 207; total 43 363 639 and 27 283 557; amounts due to clients: retail 7 023 586 and 6 428 875, institutional 100 955 and 99 348, total 7 124 541 and 6 528 223; contributions to the compensation scheme with a closing balance of 28 338 against 23 981; total employment at 30 June 2026 of 1 548 people against 1 516 at 31 December 2025; XXZW Investment Group S.A. holding 42 067 329 shares or 35,78% at 30 June 2026; XTB Lithuania UAB incorporated with no operations yet; dividends of 478 507 thousand złoty paid in the period — H1 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcXTB currently has 2 825 700 clients holding an average of about 15 300 złoty of instruments each, and it is adding them at roughly 700 000 a half-year, which means the average is being pulled down by new arrivals as fast as it is pushed up by contributions.
    Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe route to profitability on that base is fees on assets, and XTB has deliberately chosen not to charge them: no commission on shares and funds up to 100 000 euros of turnover, no withdrawal fee, no custody charge disclosed.
    XTB Group Management Board report on activities in 2025, business model and competitive landscape - the model "combines the features of an agency model with a market maker model, in which the Company is a party to transactions concluded and initiated by clients"; "XTB operates as a market-maker, meaning it is the counterparty to a client's transaction"; "XTB executes all transactions in shares, ETFs, and CFDs based on these assets directly on regulated markets or alternative trading systems. XTB is not a market maker for this class of instruments"; the competitive environment divided into trading platform providers (eToro, Trading 212, Robinhood), fintech companies (Trade Republic, Scalable Capital, Revolut) and CFD-only brokers (Plus500, IG Group, CMC Markets, Saxo Bank), with Polish bank-affiliated brokerages named as mBank Biuro Maklerskie, Santander Biuro Maklerskie, Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Srodowiska (BOSSA), PKO BP Biuro Maklerskie, ING Securities and Bank Pekao S.A. Biuro Maklerskie, and XTB described as a market leader in Poland; the planned European ban on the payment-for-order-flow model from 2026; key competitive advantages listed as a wide product range including stocks, ETFs, Investment Plans and CFDs plus interest on free funds, an eWallet with a multi-currency card and long-term savings accounts IKE (Poland), ISA (United Kingdom) and PEA (France); the proprietary xStation platform and XTB mobile app; no commissions up to EUR 100 000 turnover on stocks and ETFs and no withdrawal fees; operations in over 15 countries; regulation by nine financial authorities including the FCA and KNF; client fund segregation; 24/5 support; and the XTB Academy. Brand ambassadors Mads Mikkelsen (2016-2018), Conor McGregor and Iker Casillas (2022-2024) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (2024-2026); nearly PLN 585 million allocated to marketing in 2025, up 69,6%, including the largest campaign in the group's history launched in September 2025 across 13 markets including Poland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Chile, the Middle East and Indonesia, and sponsorship at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; the XTB brand dating from 2009 and the word "trading" replaced by "investing" in 2023 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcAverage operating revenue per active client was 700 złoty in the second quarter of 2026 against 900 in the first.
    Moat Explorer calculations from XTB's published figures. Correlations across the eight quarters from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026 between operating income (470 234, 465 416, 580 294, 580 597, 375 821, 609 344, 1 094 018 and 992 558 thousand złoty) and, first, CFD turnover in lots (1 627 978, 1 657 390, 1 907 974, 2 321 584, 2 094 296, 2 542 526, 2 323 204 and 1 831 627) giving 0,25, second, CFD notional in dollars (695 315, 727 854, 937 867, 1 144 554, 1 118 278, 1 605 005, 1 333 410 and 1 029 179 million) giving 0,37, and third, profitability per lot (272, 253, 277, 229, 152, 208, 439 and 484 złoty) giving 0,92; the ranges over those quarters are 1,56 times for lots, 2,31 times for notional, 3,18 times for profitability per lot and 2,91 times for operating income. Annually from 2019 to 2025 the correlation between CFD turnover in lots and operating income is 0,96. Market capitalisation of 16 970 million złoty is 144,34 złoty multiplied by 117 569 251 shares, which against trailing twelve-month revenue of 3 071,5 million złoty (2 146,056 less 1 160,891 plus 2 086,324) gives 5,53 times sales, and against trailing net profit of 1 261,4 million (644,199 less 410,052 plus 1 027,240) gives 13,45 times earnings and earnings per share of 10,73. Historic price-earnings ratios are year-end share price multiplied by 117,569 million shares divided by net profit: 8,15, 5,23, 8,31, 4,76, 5,62, 9,66 and 13,10 for 2019 to 2025, with price-to-sales of 1,97, 2,64, 3,16, 2,51, 2,75, 4,42 and 3,93. XTB's 2025 operating income of 2 146,056 million złoty converts to 570,9 million dollars at the National Bank of Poland's 2025 average rate of 3,7588, giving 480 dollars per active client across 1 189 397 active clients against Plus500's 3 268 dollars across 242 440, a ratio of 6,8 times, while Plus500's revenue of 792,4 million dollars is 39 per cent more than XTB's. Client instruments of 43 363 639 thousand złoty across 2 825 700 clients is 15 346 złoty each, against 12 603 at 31 December 2025 and 10 048 at 31 December 2024; 43 363 639 thousand złoty converts to 8,6 billion pounds at 5,03 złoty to the pound, or 3 051 pounds a client, against Trading 212's 25 billion pounds across 4,5 million funded accounts, or 5 556 each. Gross gain on stocks and ETPs as a share of gross gain on CFDs is 0,7 per cent for 2023 (11 050 over 1 622 633), 1,7 per cent for 2024 (30 654 over 1 837 173) and 3,8 per cent for 2025 (78 310 over 2 035 006); as a share of client instruments held, 78 310 over 27 283 557 is 29 basis points. Marketing divided by salaries is 0,44 in 2019 (37 716 over 86 024), 1,42 in 2025 (584 898 over 413 019) and 1,76 in the first half of 2026 (435 510 over 246 964). Revenue per employee is 1,54 million złoty for 2023 (1 618 385 over 1 054), 1,51 million for 2024 (1 873 436 over 1 245), 1,42 million for 2025 (2 146 056 over 1 516) and 2,70 million annualised for the first half of 2026 (4 172 648 over 1 548). Poland's share of operating income is 46,7 per cent in 2023, 52,7 in 2024, 54,4 in 2025 and 57,4 per cent in the first half of 2026 (1 197 033 over 2 086 324). Net interest income is 3,1 per cent of 2024 revenue and 3,6 per cent of 2025 revenue; the share of interest kept is 78 per cent of 140,1 million less 62,1 million, or 56 per cent. Institutional revenue is 2,0 per cent of 2025 operating income (42 524 over 2 146 056) and was 8,7 per cent in 2019 (20 847 over 239 304). Second-quarter 2026 net profit of 1 027 240 less 535 042 is 492 198 against 216 129 a year earlier, a rise of 127,7 per cent, while the sequential fall from 535 042 is 8,0 per cent. The 2018 to 2019 declines are 17,0 per cent in operating income and 43,1 per cent in net profit — FY2019-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026