⚠ The Clients Can Be RightHigh threat

XTB (XTB) — threat to the moat

Twenty-six per cent of accounts make money, and their gains are not capped the way their losses are.

The mirror image of a 484 złoty profit per lot is a quarter in which the clients are collectively positioned correctly and the house pays them. XTB's own mandatory disclosure says 74 per cent of retail accounts lose money trading contracts for difference with it, which also says that 26 per cent do not, and the distribution matters more than the average.1 Losses are capped at the account balance; gains are not.

Profitability per lot, PLNQ3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26Q3 2025 produced the worst margin of the series on the second-highest volume
The quarter when the clients were not wrong looks like the third of 2025.

The exposure is concentrated by construction. Retail clients crowd into the same handful of instruments — gold, the American indices, the euro against the dollar — and they tend to be positioned the same way at the same time, because they are reading the same headlines. A market maker facing a correlated book is not running a diversified portfolio of small bets; it is running one large bet in the opposite direction to its customers, sized by whatever the hedge ratio happens to be that week.

XTB has already shown what this looks like at a smaller scale. The third quarter of 2025 produced 375,8 million złoty of operating income on the second-highest contract volume of the year and a profitability of 152 złoty a lot, the worst figure in the series, in a quarter when nothing went wrong operationally.2 Clients traded plenty; the house simply did not win much of it.

The most dangerous version is a gap: a weekend event that reopens the market well beyond every stop level, leaving XTB owing on positions it cannot close at the price it assumed.

Profitability per lot bottomed at 140 złoty in 2019 and at 152 in the third quarter of 2025.3 Anything below that would be new territory for this company.

References
  1. ReportedXTB's own mandatory disclosure says 74 per cent of retail accounts lose money trading contracts for difference with it, which also says that 26 per cent do not, and the distribution matters more than the average.
    XTB mandatory risk disclosure on xtb.com - "74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider." and "CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage." — September 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe third quarter of 2025 produced 375,8 million złoty of operating income on the second-highest contract volume of the year and a profitability of 152 złoty a lot, the worst figure in the series, in a quarter when nothing went wrong operationally.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, operational data - quarterly series for Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025, Q2 2025, Q1 2025, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 in that order: total operating income 992 558, 1 094 018, 609 344, 375 821, 580 597, 580 294, 465 416 and 470 234 thousand złoty; transaction volume in CFD instruments in nominal value 1 029 179, 1 333 410, 1 605 005, 1 118 278, 1 144 554, 937 867, 727 854 and 695 315 million dollars; profitability for USD 1 million of transaction volume 238, 216, 93, 84, 128, 144, 147 and 167 dollars; transaction volume in CFD instruments 1 831 627, 2 323 204, 2 542 526, 2 094 296, 2 321 584, 1 907 974, 1 657 390 and 1 627 978 lots; profitability per lot 484, 439, 208, 152, 229, 277, 253 and 272 złoty; marketing expenses 200 081, 235 429, 179 195, 141 495, 123 322, 141 034, 116 855 and 71 613 thousand złoty with client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,9, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7 and 0,6 thousand złoty; structure of the gross result in H1 2026 Commodity CFDs 75,3%, Index CFDs 13,9%, Currency CFDs 5,0% and other 5,8%, against H1 2025 Index CFDs 46,3%, Commodity CFDs 33,1%, Currency CFDs 15,6% and other 5,0%; share of CFD turnover by trading platform for the same eight quarters: xStation 30, 29, 29, 27, 35, 37, 36 and 38 per cent, xStation Mobile 61, 60, 64, 62, 59, 56, 56 and 57 per cent and MT4 9, 11, 7, 11, 6, 7, 9 and 8 per cent; own cash 2 934 090 at 30 June 2026 against 1 994 027 at 31 December 2025, up 47,1%, with no bonds; dividend per share of 1,5 for 2021, 4,86 for 2022, 5,02 for 2023, 5,45 for 2024 and 4,07 for 2025, the 2025 dividend being PLN 478,5 million or 75% of standalone net profit with a record date of 15 June 2026 and payment on 24 June 2026 — Q3 2024 - Q2 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedProfitability per lot bottomed at 140 złoty in 2019 and at 152 in the third quarter of 2025.
    XTB results presentation for the first half of 2026, operational data - quarterly series for Q2 2026, Q1 2026, Q4 2025, Q3 2025, Q2 2025, Q1 2025, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 in that order: total operating income 992 558, 1 094 018, 609 344, 375 821, 580 597, 580 294, 465 416 and 470 234 thousand złoty; transaction volume in CFD instruments in nominal value 1 029 179, 1 333 410, 1 605 005, 1 118 278, 1 144 554, 937 867, 727 854 and 695 315 million dollars; profitability for USD 1 million of transaction volume 238, 216, 93, 84, 128, 144, 147 and 167 dollars; transaction volume in CFD instruments 1 831 627, 2 323 204, 2 542 526, 2 094 296, 2 321 584, 1 907 974, 1 657 390 and 1 627 978 lots; profitability per lot 484, 439, 208, 152, 229, 277, 253 and 272 złoty; marketing expenses 200 081, 235 429, 179 195, 141 495, 123 322, 141 034, 116 855 and 71 613 thousand złoty with client acquisition cost 0,7, 0,9, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7, 0,7 and 0,6 thousand złoty; structure of the gross result in H1 2026 Commodity CFDs 75,3%, Index CFDs 13,9%, Currency CFDs 5,0% and other 5,8%, against H1 2025 Index CFDs 46,3%, Commodity CFDs 33,1%, Currency CFDs 15,6% and other 5,0%; share of CFD turnover by trading platform for the same eight quarters: xStation 30, 29, 29, 27, 35, 37, 36 and 38 per cent, xStation Mobile 61, 60, 64, 62, 59, 56, 56 and 57 per cent and MT4 9, 11, 7, 11, 6, 7, 9 and 8 per cent; own cash 2 934 090 at 30 June 2026 against 1 994 027 at 31 December 2025, up 47,1%, with no bonds; dividend per share of 1,5 for 2021, 4,86 for 2022, 5,02 for 2023, 5,45 for 2024 and 4,07 for 2025, the 2025 dividend being PLN 478,5 million or 75% of standalone net profit with a record date of 15 June 2026 and payment on 24 June 2026 — Q3 2024 - Q2 2026 · publ. 28 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026