Buybacks: ¥400 Billion Plus the Berkshire OffsetNarrow moat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — moat facet

Tokio Marine plans to return nearly as much as it earns this year, funded by selling its client shares.

1. ReportedTokio Marine plans ¥400.0 billion of share buybacks in the current year, excluding a further buyback of up to ¥287.4 billion to offset the shares it sold to Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity.
   Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - adjusted net income, strategic equity sales, shareholder returns and the FY2026 plan. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
2. ReportedTokio Marine plans ¥400.0 billion of share buybacks in the current year, excluding a further buyback of up to ¥287.4 billion to offset the shares it sold to Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity.
   Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
3. ReportedIn May 2026 it authorised a buyback of up to 130 million shares or ¥200 billion, running to December 2026.
   Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
4. ReportedTotal distributions, dividends plus buybacks, were ¥652.4 billion in the year to March 2026 and are planned at ¥860.6 billion, 3.2 times the ¥267.6 billion of the year to March 2018.
   Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - capital, strategic equities, shareholder returns, the ten-year key statistics and the 2035 aspiration. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
5. Moat Explorer calcTotal distributions, dividends plus buybacks, were ¥652.4 billion in the year to March 2026 and are planned at ¥860.6 billion, 3.2 times the ¥267.6 billion of the year to March 2018.
   Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
   Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
6. ReportedThe company notes that as its share price rose, a larger buyback might be needed to offset the NICO sale fully.
   Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results conference call script, 20 May 2026 - the new CFO, the dividend policy, the Greensill cases and the buyback. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 20 May 2026 · source ↗
7. ReportedBuybacks were ¥150 billion in the year to March 2018, ¥50 billion a year around 2020, ¥220 billion in 2025, ¥240 billion in 2026 and ¥400 billion planned.
   Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
8. Reported¥860.6 billion is close to the ¥950.0 billion guided, which leaves little for acquisitions without the equity sales.
   Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, adjusted net income by segment and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗

• Tokio Marine Japanese GAAP results, year to March 2026