◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — the variant view

Berkshire bought 2.49% of Tokio Marine and signed up to share its non-life risks for ten years.

📈 8766 valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

On 23 March 2026 Tokio Marine's board resolved a comprehensive strategic partnership with Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity1. On 13 April it sold National Indemnity 48,207,200 treasury shares at ¥5,962 each, ¥287,411,326,400 in total2, 2.49% of its issued shares3. National Indemnity agreed not to buy more than 9.9% without the board's approval4, and the partnership runs for a decade with five years of exclusivity5. Tokio Marine said it would buy back an equal amount of shares so the sale has no effect on its capital ratio67.

Tokio Marine share price (¥)5,962NICO purchase price, Apr 20267,932Close, 24 Sep 20268,46852-week highTokio Marine IFRS results; stockanalysis
A third above Berkshire's price.

Berkshire's vice chairman for insurance, Ajit Jain, described Tokio Marine as a company with "a strong underwriting franchise and an exceptional management team"8.

The shares were ¥7,932 on 24 September 20269, about a third above Berkshire's price10. They trade at 16.90 times forward earnings and 1.87 times book11.

What may not be priced is the reinsurance. National Indemnity takes a share of Tokio Marine's non-life premiums, losses and expenses for ten years12, a commitment Berkshire makes only to underwriters it trusts. The equity stake can be sold; the reinsurance ties Berkshire's capital to Tokio Marine's underwriting for a decade.

The shares have risen about 26% over the past year13. The twelve analysts who cover them have an average target of ¥8,65314, about 9% above the September price15.

The measure is Berkshire's stake. Any move toward the 9.9% ceiling on the open market16 would show the investor that knows the underwriting best buying more.

References
  1. ReportedOn 23 March 2026 Tokio Marine's board resolved a comprehensive strategic partnership with Berkshire Hathaway's National Indemnity.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOn 13 April it sold National Indemnity 48,207,200 treasury shares at ¥5,962 each, ¥287,411,326,400 in total, 2.49% of its issued shares.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedOn 13 April it sold National Indemnity 48,207,200 treasury shares at ¥5,962 each, ¥287,411,326,400 in total, 2.49% of its issued shares.
    Reinsurance News - Berkshire Hathaway's NICO to acquire a 2.49% stake in Tokio Marine, with a comment from Ajit Jain. — March 2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedNational Indemnity agreed not to buy more than 9.9% without the board's approval, and the partnership runs for a decade with five years of exclusivity.
    Business Insurance (Reuters) - National Indemnity will agree not to buy more than 9.9% of Tokio Marine without prior approval. — March 2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedNational Indemnity agreed not to buy more than 9.9% without the board's approval, and the partnership runs for a decade with five years of exclusivity.
    Claims Journal (Bloomberg), 24 March 2026 - the partnership lasts a decade, with five years of exclusivity. — March 2026 · publ. 24 March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedTokio Marine said it would buy back an equal amount of shares so the sale has no effect on its capital ratio.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedTokio Marine said it would buy back an equal amount of shares so the sale has no effect on its capital ratio.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, risk factors page. — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedBerkshire's vice chairman for insurance, Ajit Jain, described Tokio Marine as a company with "a strong underwriting franchise and an exceptional management team".
    Reinsurance News - Berkshire Hathaway's NICO to acquire a 2.49% stake in Tokio Marine, with a comment from Ajit Jain. — March 2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe shares were ¥7,932 on 24 September 2026, about a third above Berkshire's price.
    Tokio Marine Holdings (TYO: 8766) market data - share price ¥7,932, 52-week range ¥5,300-8,468, analysts' target ¥8,653, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  10. Moat Explorer calcThe shares were ¥7,932 on 24 September 2026, about a third above Berkshire's price.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  11. ReportedThey trade at 16.90 times forward earnings and 1.87 times book.
    Tokio Marine Holdings (TYO: 8766) statistics - trailing P/E 28.90, forward P/E 16.90, price-to-book 1.87, dividend yield 3.09%, 52-week price change +26.43%. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedNational Indemnity takes a share of Tokio Marine's non-life premiums, losses and expenses for ten years, a commitment Berkshire makes only to underwriters it trusts.
    Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 - NICO's quota-share reinsurance of Tokio Marine's net non-life premiums over a ten-year term from April 1, 2026. — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe shares have risen about 26% over the past year.
    Tokio Marine Holdings (TYO: 8766) statistics - trailing P/E 28.90, forward P/E 16.90, price-to-book 1.87, dividend yield 3.09%, 52-week price change +26.43%. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe twelve analysts who cover them have an average target of ¥8,653, about 9% above the September price.
    Tokio Marine Holdings (TYO: 8766) market data - share price ¥7,932, 52-week range ¥5,300-8,468, analysts' target ¥8,653, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  15. Moat Explorer calcThe twelve analysts who cover them have an average target of ¥8,653, about 9% above the September price.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  16. ReportedAny move toward the 9.9% ceiling on the open market would show the investor that knows the underwriting best buying more.
    Business Insurance (Reuters) - National Indemnity will agree not to buy more than 9.9% of Tokio Marine without prior approval. — March 2026 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026