⚠ Priced on Earnings That Changed Their DefinitionModerate threat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — threat to the moat

Tokio Marine's profit roughly halved when it changed accounting standards, and the market now has to price the smaller number.

Tokio Marine's reported profit for the year to March 2026 is ¥980.4 billion under Japanese GAAP and ¥531.3 billion under IFRS12. The main difference is that IFRS sends gains on selling strategic equities to other comprehensive income rather than to profit, and that the IFRS Japan Life segment recorded a large investment loss3.

Net income, year to March 2026 (¥ bn)980.4Japanese GAAP531.3IFRS881.5IFRS adjustedTokio Marine results, 2026
One year, three profits.

The market sees both numbers. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio on IFRS earnings is 28.90, and the forward ratio 16.904. On the company's own adjusted measure the shares trade at about 15.9 times the ¥950.0 billion guided for the current year5.

The switch is honest: IFRS excludes one-off gains that were never going to last. But it means that the earnings history investors know, including the ¥1,055.3 billion peak under Japanese GAAP6, is not the basis on which the company will now be judged.

The Japanese GAAP history includes a sharp dip: net income fell to ¥161.8 billion in the year to March 20217. The company's three-for-one share split of October 20228 also means that per-share figures before it have to be adjusted, adding a further complication to comparing past and present.

The number that tests this threat is IFRS adjusted net income. Reaching ¥950.0 billion9 would show the business earning its valuation without the gains; missing it would expose how much of the old profit was liquidation.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
IFRS net income, latest year
¥531.3bn against ¥980.4bn under Japanese GAAP

The same year on two bases; the IFRS figure excludes equity-sale gains.

Source: Tokio Marine IFRS results, year to March 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedTokio Marine's reported profit for the year to March 2026 is ¥980.4 billion under Japanese GAAP and ¥531.3 billion under IFRS.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (Japanese GAAP) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - ordinary income, net income, segment profit, dividends, cash flows and securities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 20 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTokio Marine's reported profit for the year to March 2026 is ¥980.4 billion under Japanese GAAP and ¥531.3 billion under IFRS.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe main difference is that IFRS sends gains on selling strategic equities to other comprehensive income rather than to profit, and that the IFRS Japan Life segment recorded a large investment loss.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe trailing price-to-earnings ratio on IFRS earnings is 28.90, and the forward ratio 16.90.
    Tokio Marine Holdings (TYO: 8766) statistics - trailing P/E 28.90, forward P/E 16.90, price-to-book 1.87, dividend yield 3.09%, 52-week price change +26.43%. — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcOn the company's own adjusted measure the shares trade at about 15.9 times the ¥950.0 billion guided for the current year.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedBut it means that the earnings history investors know, including the ¥1,055.3 billion peak under Japanese GAAP, is not the basis on which the company will now be judged.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (Japanese GAAP) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - ordinary income, net income, segment profit, dividends, cash flows and securities. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 20 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe Japanese GAAP history includes a sharp dip: net income fell to ¥161.8 billion in the year to March 2021.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2021. — FY to March 2021 · publ. May 2021 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe company's three-for-one share split of October 2022 also means that per-share figures before it have to be adjusted, adding a further complication to comparing past and present.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2023 - including the three-for-one share split. — FY to March 2023 · publ. May 2023 · source ↗
  9. ReportedReaching ¥950.0 billion would show the business earning its valuation without the gains; missing it would expose how much of the old profit was liquidation.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, adjusted net income by segment and the balance sheet. — April-June 2026 · publ. 12 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026