⚠ Commercial Real Estate LoansModerate threat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — threat to the moat

Tokio Marine lost ¥124 billion on American commercial real estate loans and is shrinking the book.

Delphi and the other American businesses invest their premiums, including in commercial real estate loans. In the year to March 2025 Tokio Marine recorded expected credit losses of ¥123,911 million on them1. The loan book fell from $11.21 billion at the end of 2024 to $8.73 billion at the end of 20252, down about 22%3.

US commercial real estate loan book ($ bn, December)11.2120248.732025Tokio Marine results presentation, May 2026
A fifth smaller in a year.

Commercial real estate in the United States has suffered from higher interest rates and lower office occupancy. An insurer holding loans against it takes credit losses when borrowers default.

Tokio Marine says its private loan exposure is limited at about $4 billion, about 2% of its investment assets4.

The company says its broader private loan exposure is limited, at about $4 billion or about 2% of its investment assets5. It lists private-credit disruption among its business-environment risks6.

The measure is further credit losses. A second year of large provisions would show the CRE book still deteriorating.

References
  1. ReportedIn the year to March 2025 Tokio Marine recorded expected credit losses of ¥123,911 million on them.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025 - including the expected credit losses on US commercial real estate loans. — FY to March 2025 · publ. May 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe loan book fell from $11.21 billion at the end of 2024 to $8.73 billion at the end of 2025, down about 22%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcThe loan book fell from $11.21 billion at the end of 2024 to $8.73 billion at the end of 2025, down about 22%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedTokio Marine says its private loan exposure is limited at about $4 billion, about 2% of its investment assets.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - international businesses, acquisitions and synergies. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe company says its broader private loan exposure is limited, at about $4 billion or about 2% of its investment assets.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - international businesses, acquisitions and synergies. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt lists private-credit disruption among its business-environment risks.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026