Natural Catastrophes and the ¥200 Billion BudgetNarrow moat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — moat facet

Tokio Marine budgets ¥200 billion a year for catastrophes and has spent between ¥131 billion and ¥201 billion in the last two years.

Tokio Marine budgets ¥200.0 billion before tax for natural catastrophe losses in the current year, ¥105.0 billion in Japan and ¥95.0 billion abroad1. Actual losses were ¥200.7 billion in the year to March 2025 and ¥131.2 billion in 2026, against a ten-year average of ¥160.9 billion23. Domestic catastrophe losses were ¥115.9 billion and ¥55.5 billion4.

Natural catastrophe losses before tax (¥ bn)200.7Yr to Mar 2025131.2Yr to Mar 2026160.910-year average200.0Current budgetTokio Marine results presentation and IFRS results, 2026
A budget at the top of the recent range.

Pricing catastrophe risk correctly is part of the underwriting moat: an insurer that charges enough in good years survives the bad ones. Tokio Marine's budget above the average suggests caution.

In the first quarter of the current year catastrophe losses were ¥23.6 billion5, well below a quarter of the budget.

In the first quarter of the current year, catastrophe losses were ¥23.6 billion against ¥18.0 billion a year earlier6. The heaviest months for Japanese typhoons are later in the year, so the first quarter says little about the full-year outcome.

The measure is actual losses against the budget. A year well below ¥200 billion adds to profit; a year above it, like 2025, takes it away.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Losses fell in the latest year; the budget is unchanged.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Natural catastrophe losses, latest year
¥131.2bn against ¥200.7bn a year earlier

Against a ¥200.0 billion budget and a ¥160.9 billion ten-year average.

Source: Tokio Marine results presentation, May 2026 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
A Year Above Budget
Tokio Marine's catastrophe losses reached its full budget two years ago, and the climate is not getting calmer.
References
  1. ReportedTokio Marine budgets ¥200.0 billion before tax for natural catastrophe losses in the current year, ¥105.0 billion in Japan and ¥95.0 billion abroad.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Consolidated Financial Results (IFRS) for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 - insurance revenue, net income, segment results, the Japan Life investment loss, acquisitions, the NICO share disposal and the buybacks. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 26 June 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedActual losses were ¥200.7 billion in the year to March 2025 and ¥131.2 billion in 2026, against a ten-year average of ¥160.9 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedActual losses were ¥200.7 billion in the year to March 2025 and ¥131.2 billion in 2026, against a ten-year average of ¥160.9 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDomestic catastrophe losses were ¥115.9 billion and ¥55.5 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIn the first quarter of the current year catastrophe losses were ¥23.6 billion, well below a quarter of the budget.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, overview of first-quarter FY2026 results - progress against the plan, large losses, the Middle East, strategic equity sales and natural catastrophes. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn the first quarter of the current year, catastrophe losses were ¥23.6 billion against ¥18.0 billion a year earlier.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, overview of first-quarter FY2026 results - progress against the plan, large losses, the Middle East, strategic equity sales and natural catastrophes. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026