⚠ Claims Rise Faster Than RatesModerate threat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — threat to the moat

Tokio Marine's auto claims are rising 7.5% a year, about as fast as it can raise prices.

The unit cost of auto claims rose 7.5% in April-June 20261. Tokio Marine's rate increases, +3.5% and +8.5% in 20252, compound to about 12.3%3, but they apply as policies renew, over a year.

Auto rate increases (%)+3.5Jan 2025+8.5Oct 2025+6.5Oct 2026+7.5Claim unit cost,Apr-Jun 2026Tokio Marine IR conference, May 2026, and first-quarter overview
Prices and claims rising together.

If claims inflation continues at that pace, the rate increases only keep up rather than restoring margin. A further +6.5% is scheduled for October 20264.

Japanese customers also shop more when prices rise, which tests the market share of 26.3%5.

The company's plan for an auto combined ratio of 94.9% in the current year6 assumes the rate increases outpace claim costs. In the first quarter the Japanese combined ratio was 88.7%7, which suggests the plan is achievable if large losses do not recur.

The measure is the gap between rate increases and claim inflation. Claims rising faster than 7.5% would push the auto combined ratio back toward 100%.

References
  1. ReportedThe unit cost of auto claims rose 7.5% in April-June 2026.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, overview of first-quarter FY2026 results - progress against the plan, large losses, the Middle East, strategic equity sales and natural catastrophes. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTokio Marine's rate increases, +3.5% and +8.5% in 2025, compound to about 12.3%, but they apply as policies renew, over a year.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcTokio Marine's rate increases, +3.5% and +8.5% in 2025, compound to about 12.3%, but they apply as policies renew, over a year.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedA further +6.5% is scheduled for October 2026.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedJapanese customers also shop more when prices rise, which tests the market share of 26.3%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe company's plan for an auto combined ratio of 94.9% in the current year assumes the rate increases outpace claim costs.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn the first quarter the Japanese combined ratio was 88.7%, which suggests the plan is achievable if large losses do not recur.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, overview of first-quarter FY2026 results - progress against the plan, large losses, the Middle East, strategic equity sales and natural catastrophes. — April-June 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026