A 93% Combined Ratio Over Ten YearsNarrow moat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — moat facet

Tokio Marine's Japanese underwriting has beaten the market by two points a year for a decade, and the recent years have been its weakest.

Tokio Marine & Nichido's combined ratio averaged 93.2% over ten years, against 95.3% for the Japanese market and 99.9% for North America1. Year by year it ran 90.4% in the year to March 2017, 93.9%, 102.2%, 98.7%, 92.5%, 90.6%, 95.8%, 97.7%, 96.1% and 95.6% in 20262.

Tokio Marine & Nichido combined ratio (%, years to March)90.42017102.2201992.5202195.8202396.1202595.6202695.310-yrmarket avgTokio Marine IR conference, May 2026
One underwriting loss, and four years above 95%.

Two points of combined ratio on Japanese premiums of about ¥2.6 trillion3 is worth roughly ¥50 billion a year before tax4. That is the value of being better at pricing and claims than the market, and it is the core of the Japanese moat.

The recent years have been harder: the ratio has not been below 95% since the year to March 20225, as natural catastrophes, inflation in repair costs and auto claims pushed it up.

The North American comparison is striking. The company puts the ten-year average combined ratio there at 99.9%6, which means American property and casualty insurers as a group barely break even on underwriting. Tokio Marine's American specialists run well below that: HCC at 87.8% and Philadelphia at 92.3% in the latest year7.

The measure is the current year's plan of 91.9%8. Reaching it would put the ratio back at its best level in five years.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Above 95% for four years; the plan is 91.9%.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Japan P&C ten-year average combined ratio
93.2% against the market's 95.3%

The underwriting edge; the recent years have been above the average.

Source: Tokio Marine IR conference, May 2026 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
An Underwriting Loss in 2019
Two bad typhoon years took Tokio Marine's Japanese profit from ¥168 billion to ¥19 billion.
References
  1. ReportedTokio Marine & Nichido's combined ratio averaged 93.2% over ten years, against 95.3% for the Japanese market and 99.9% for North America.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - international businesses, acquisitions and synergies. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedYear by year it ran 90.4% in the year to March 2017, 93.9%, 102.2%, 98.7%, 92.5%, 90.6%, 95.8%, 97.7%, 96.1% and 95.6% in 2026.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedTwo points of combined ratio on Japanese premiums of about ¥2.6 trillion is worth roughly ¥50 billion a year before tax.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcTwo points of combined ratio on Japanese premiums of about ¥2.6 trillion is worth roughly ¥50 billion a year before tax.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedThe recent years have been harder: the ratio has not been below 95% since the year to March 2022, as natural catastrophes, inflation in repair costs and auto claims pushed it up.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe company puts the ten-year average combined ratio there at 99.9%, which means American property and casualty insurers as a group barely break even on underwriting.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedTokio Marine's American specialists run well below that: HCC at 87.8% and Philadelphia at 92.3% in the latest year.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, FY2025 results and FY2026 projections presentation - Japan P&C results: premiums, auto, natural catastrophes and expense ratios. — FY to March 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe measure is the current year's plan of 91.9%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026