MS&AD: Two Companies, a Third of the MarketNarrow moat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — moat facet

MS&AD's two companies together are bigger than Tokio Marine in Japan.

MS&AD holds two of Japan's four large non-life insurers: Mitsui Sumitomo with 19% and Aioi Nissay Dowa with 14% of the market1. Together, 33%2, they are larger than Tokio Marine & Nichido's 27%3.

Japan non-life market share (%)19%Mitsui Sumitomo14%Aioi Nissay Dowa27%Tokio Marine & NichidoTokio Marine IR conference, May 2026
Two brands against one.

The group was among those named in the Japan Fair Trade Commission's orders of October 20244. It faces the same pressures: to sell client shareholdings and to compete on price and service.

A rival of similar size with a two-brand structure competes across the market, from auto through corporate lines. Neither group can grow much faster than the market without taking share from the other.

The top three groups together dominate approximately 90% of the market5. In such a market, share moves slowly, and a change of a point or two is significant.

The measure is relative share. A widening gap in either direction would show which group is winning the more competitive market.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Shares unchanged.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
MS&AD combined Japan non-life share
33% against Tokio Marine & Nichido's 27%

The largest group rival; relative share shows who is winning.

Source: Tokio Marine IR conference, May 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedMS&AD holds two of Japan's four large non-life insurers: Mitsui Sumitomo with 19% and Aioi Nissay Dowa with 14% of the market.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcTogether, 33%, they are larger than Tokio Marine & Nichido's 27%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedTogether, 33%, they are larger than Tokio Marine & Nichido's 27%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe group was among those named in the Japan Fair Trade Commission's orders of October 2024.
    Japan Fair Trade Commission, 31 October 2024 - cease and desist orders and surcharge payment orders against non-life insurance companies for price-fixing. — October 2024 · publ. 31 October 2024 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe top three groups together dominate approximately 90% of the market.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026