⚠ A Market That Grows 2.5% a YearModerate threat

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) — threat to the moat

Tokio Marine's home market grows 2.5% a year and its two largest rivals together are bigger than it is.

The Japanese non-life market is large and slow. Its premiums grew at a compound rate of about 2.5% over the period Tokio Marine measures, to ¥9,578.2 billion1. Tokio Marine & Nichido's own premiums grew from ¥2,116.1 billion in the year to March 2017 to ¥2,596.3 billion in 20262, and are planned to fall slightly in the current year, to ¥2,573.0 billion3.

Tokio Marine & Nichido net premiums written (¥ bn, years to March)2,116.120172,247.520202,385.220232,596.320262,573.02027 planTokio Marine IR conference, May 2026
About 2% a year for a decade.

The two companies that make up MS&AD, Mitsui Sumitomo and Aioi Nissay Dowa, hold 33% between them45, more than Tokio Marine's 27%. Sompo Japan has 24%6. There is no room to grow faster than the market except by taking share from rivals of similar size.

That is why most of Tokio Marine's growth has come from abroad. The Japanese business earned ¥171.2 billion in the latest year on the company's business-unit measure, against ¥473.9 billion for international7.

Tokio Marine & Nichido's premiums grew about 2% a year over the decade, roughly the market's pace8. Its plan for the current year is a small decline9, as the company prices for profit rather than volume.

The measure is the Japanese premium line. Growth above the market's 2.5% would show share gains; below it would show the home market shrinking in real terms.

References
  1. ReportedIts premiums grew at a compound rate of about 2.5% over the period Tokio Marine measures, to ¥9,578.2 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTokio Marine & Nichido's own premiums grew from ¥2,116.1 billion in the year to March 2017 to ¥2,596.3 billion in 2026, and are planned to fall slightly in the current year, to ¥2,573.0 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedTokio Marine & Nichido's own premiums grew from ¥2,116.1 billion in the year to March 2017 to ¥2,596.3 billion in 2026, and are planned to fall slightly in the current year, to ¥2,573.0 billion.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe two companies that make up MS&AD, Mitsui Sumitomo and Aioi Nissay Dowa, hold 33% between them, more than Tokio Marine's 27%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcThe two companies that make up MS&AD, Mitsui Sumitomo and Aioi Nissay Dowa, hold 33% between them, more than Tokio Marine's 27%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Tokio Marine's reported figures. Market value: ¥7,932 x 1,899,994,045 shares outstanding (1,934,000,000 issued less 34,005,955 treasury at 30 June 2026) = ¥15.07 trillion; over JGAAP net income of ¥980.4bn = 15.4 times; over IFRS adjusted net income guidance of ¥950.0bn = 15.9 times; over ordinary income of ¥8,872.3bn = 1.70. March year-end P/E (company market value over JGAAP net income): 3,536.2 / 273.8 = 12.9 (2017) ... 14,133.7 / 980.4 = 14.4 (2026). IFRS trailing net income: 531.3 - 256.0 + 264.3 = 539.6. Japan non-life shares: MS 19% + AD 14% = 33% against TMNF 27%. Equity-sale gains inside JGAAP adjusted net income: 1,204.8 - 711.6 = 493.2. Strategic equities: 1,964.3 / 3,605.6 - 1 = -45.5%. International share of IFRS adjusted net income: 578.5 / 881.5 = 65.6%; Japan P&C 234.7 / 881.5 = 26.6%. NICO share price against the current price: 7,932 / 5,962 - 1 = +33%. First-quarter progress: 261.4 / 950.0 = 28%; 264.3 / 830.0 = 31.8%. Agrihedge goodwill: 71.8 / 150.0 = 48%; Ignyte 54.5 / 102.8 = 53%. PHLY profit growth: 1,265 / 180 = 7.0 times. Bonds and borrowings over equity: 598.0 / 7,955.6 = 0.075. Segment ordinary profit shares, year to March 2026: domestic non-life 744.5 / 1,348.6 = 55%; international 559.1 / 1,348.6 = 41%. Domestic non-life profit against strategic equity sales: 744.5 against 745.6. Dividends: 218 / 36.7 = 5.9 times since the year to March 2016 (split-adjusted). Market value since March 2017: 14,133.7 / 3,536.2 = 4.0 times. Unrealized loss change: 914.6 - 590.5 = 324.1. Auto rate increases compounded: 1.035 x 1.085 = 1.123. CRE loan book: 8.73 / 11.21 - 1 = -22%. Distributions: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Nat-cat losses against the 10-year average: 131.2 / 160.9 = 82%; 200.7 / 160.9 = 125%. Two combined-ratio points on Japanese premiums: 0.02 x 2,596.3 = ¥51.9bn. Large deals: 94.1 + 473.5 + 215.0 + 898.0 + 356.7 = ¥2,037.3bn. Ignyte and Agrihedge goodwill: 54.5 + 71.8 = 126.3. Distributions since the year to March 2018: 860.6 / 267.6 = 3.2 times. Analysts' target against the price: 8,653 / 7,932 - 1 = 9%. Channel share: 28.5 + 25.0 + 18.4 = 71.9%. Ignyte and Agrihedge prices: 102.8 + 150.0 = 252.8; 10% of that = 25.3. Pure profit growth: 43.2 / 38.0 - 1 = 13.7%. Agency commissions: 19.7% x 2,596.3 = ¥511bn. HCC profit against price: 122.1 / 898.0 = 13.6%. Suncorp against HCC: 14 / 7.5 = 1.9 times. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Tokio Marine's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  6. ReportedSompo Japan has 24%.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe Japanese business earned ¥171.2 billion in the latest year on the company's business-unit measure, against ¥473.9 billion for international.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedTokio Marine & Nichido's premiums grew about 2% a year over the decade, roughly the market's pace.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedIts plan for the current year is a small decline, as the company prices for profit rather than volume.
    Tokio Marine Holdings, Group Business Strategy IR conference, 26 May 2026 - Japan P&C: market share, combined ratios, auto insurance, premiums, sales channels and the regulatory orders. — 2016-2026 · publ. 26 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026