⚠ Growth Is HalvingModerate threat

Synektik (SNT) — threat to the moat

Synektik's Polish operations are still growing a third a year, half the pace of a year ago.

Polish procedure growth is still high and it is falling fast. It was 67% for the year to September 20251 and 35% in the April-June 2026 quarter2.

Growth rates (%)+67PL procedures, FY2025+35PL procedures,Apr-Jun 2026+61Recurringrevenue, FY2025+26Recurring revenue,Apr-Jun 2026Synektik annual report to September 2025; interim report to June 2026
Both growth rates roughly halved.

Some slowing is inevitable: the base is larger, and the reimbursed indications, prostate, colorectal and uterine cancer3, are finite. Each new robot now joins a larger installed base and adds a smaller share to total procedures.

It matters for the valuation. The shares trade at about 16,9 times continuing earnings4, a price that assumes the recurring stream keeps compounding. Recurring revenue grew 32% over the twelve months to June 2026 and 26% in the latest quarter5, already slower than the 61% of the previous fiscal year6.

The quarter-by-quarter figures are steadier than the annual comparison suggests: 38% in October-December 20257, 33% for the half-year to March8, 35% in April-June9. The slowdown happened between the fiscal years, not within the current one.

A quarter below 20% before new indications are reimbursed would say the easy part of the market is done.

References
  1. ReportedIt was 67% for the year to September 2025 and 35% in the April-June 2026 quarter.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - financial review: margins, net debt, return on equity, working capital and deferred income. — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt was 67% for the year to September 2025 and 35% in the April-June 2026 quarter.
    Synektik S.A. and Synektik Group interim condensed financial statements for 1 October 2025 - 30 June 2026 (third quarter of the fiscal year) - income statement, segment note, cash flow and balance sheet. — October 2025 - June 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedSome slowing is inevitable: the base is larger, and the reimbursed indications, prostate, colorectal and uterine cancer, are finite.
    Polityka Zdrowotna - NFZ spending on robotic cancer operations: 2 100 operations for 59 million złoty in 2022, 5 400 for 167 million złoty in 2023, about 300 million złoty on nearly 11 000 in 2024; only prostate, colorectal and uterine cancer reimbursed; average cost about 30 thousand złoty. — 2022-2024 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcThe shares trade at about 16,9 times continuing earnings, a price that assumes the recurring stream keeps compounding.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Synektik's reported figures (thousands of złoty unless stated). Market value: 352,60 złoty x 8 529 129 shares = 3 007,4 million złoty (about 3,0 billion złoty); at the NBP rate of 3,8570 = $779,7 million (about $780 million). Trailing revenue to June 2026: 681 598,6 - 482 060,1 + 733 427,1 = 932 965,6 (about 933 million złoty). Trailing continuing net profit: 126 019,2 - 85 705,2 + 137 952,7 = 178 266,7; over 8 529 129 shares = 20,90 złoty; P/E 352,60 / 20,90 = 16,9. Equipment and IT segment EBITDA over segment revenue: 187 190,7 / 631 915,5 = 29,6% (FY2025); 143 577,5 / 579 299,1 = 24,8% (FY2024); 98 943,8 / 410 834,1 = 24,1% (FY2023); 29 865,3 / 139 272,7 = 21,4% (FY2022); 18 636,4 / 100 878,6 = 18,5% (FY2021); 19 605,9 / 112 126,1 = 17,5% (FY2019). Radiopharmaceutical segment EBITDA margin: 16 061,3 / 52 937,4 = 30,3% (FY2025); 16 276,6 / 46 615,7 = 34,9% (FY2024). Recurring revenue, trailing: 374,7 / 59,8 = 6,3 times (September 2022 to June 2026); installed base 142 / 37 = 3,8 times. Recurring revenue per year-end robot: 311,3 / 113 = 2,75 million złoty (FY2025); 193,9 / 86 = 2,25 million złoty (FY2024). Procedures per year-end robot, FY2025: Poland 19 800 / 75 = 264; Czechia and Slovakia 12 500 / 38 = 329. Revenue per average employee: 681,6 / 221 = 3,08 million złoty. Export share: 183,7 / 681,6 = 27,0%. Equipment segment share of revenue excluding intragroup sales: 631,1 / 681,6 = 92,6% (about 93%). Intuitive products: 44,9% x 681,6 = 306,0 million złoty; other equipment, IT and service 681,6 - 306,0 - 50,5 = 325,1 million złoty. Synektik market value over the Estonian contract: 3 007,4 / 41 = 73 (roughly seventy). Dividend paid February 2026: 10,75 x 8 529 129 = 91,7 million złoty; dividend per share 10,75 / 0,45 = 23,9 times since 2021. Free cash flow: FY2025 78,3 - 17,4 = 60,9 million złoty; FY2024 89,6 - 44,9 = 44,7 million złoty. IT4KAN price over market value: 4,15 / 3 007,4 = 0,14%. Recurring revenue, April-June 2025: 103,6 / 1,26 = 82,2 million złoty. Backlog plus active offers at June 2026: 44,2 + 160,8 = 205,0 million złoty. NFZ spending per robotic operation: 59 / 2,1 = 28 thousand złoty (2022); 167 / 5,4 = 31 thousand złoty (2023); 300 / 11 = 27 thousand złoty (2024). NFZ-funded PET studies: 96,1 / 89,3 - 1 = 7,6% (about 8%); per scanner 96 100 / 37 = about 2 600. Affidea: 29,0% x 52,9 = 15,3 million złoty, against segment EBITDA of 16,1 million złoty. Synektik's installed base as a share of Intuitive's: 142 / 11 710 = 1,2%. Czech and Slovak installed base: 42 / 16 = 2,6 times. Equipment segment purchases from others: 100 - 80,2 - 6,8 = 13,0%. Years of exclusivity from September 2026 to 31 December 2031: about 5,3. Year-end P/E and P/S (market value at 30 September over net profit and revenue; continuing profit from FY2024): 122,8 / 9,136 = 13,4 and 122,8 / 134,8 = 0,91 (FY2019); 190,2 / 8,811 = 21,6 and 1,52 (FY2020); 252,5 / 8,384 = 30,1 and 1,96 (FY2021); 237,5 / 10,709 = 22,2 and 1,42 (FY2022); 516,9 / 52,452 = 9,9 and 1,16 (FY2023); 1 635,9 / 98,909 = 16,5 and 2,62 (FY2024); 2 149,3 / 126,019 = 17,1 and 3,15 (FY2025); market values from closing prices of 14,40 złoty, 22,30, 29,60, 27,85, 60,60, 191,80 and 252,00 x 8 529 129. — October 2018 - June 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Synektik's financial statements, management board reports, factsheet and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedRecurring revenue grew 32% over the twelve months to June 2026 and 26% in the latest quarter, already slower than the 61% of the previous fiscal year.
    Synektik S.A. and Synektik Group interim condensed financial statements for 1 October 2025 - 30 June 2026 (third quarter of the fiscal year) - income statement, segment note, cash flow and balance sheet. — October 2025 - June 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedRecurring revenue grew 32% over the twelve months to June 2026 and 26% in the latest quarter, already slower than the 61% of the previous fiscal year.
    Synektik annual management board report for the fiscal year to 30 September 2025 - financial review: margins, net debt, return on equity, working capital and deferred income. — October 2024 - September 2025 · publ. December 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe quarter-by-quarter figures are steadier than the annual comparison suggests: 38% in October-December 2025, 33% for the half-year to March, 35% in April-June.
    Synektik interim financial statements for 1 October - 31 December 2025 - including the annex extending the da Vinci distribution agreement to 31 December 2031 and adding Ukraine, and the 10,75 złoty dividend. — October - December 2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe quarter-by-quarter figures are steadier than the annual comparison suggests: 38% in October-December 2025, 33% for the half-year to March, 35% in April-June.
    Synektik management board report for the half-year 1 October 2025 - 31 March 2026 - including the HistoSonics Edison exclusive distribution agreement and the installed base at March 2026. — October 2025 - March 2026 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe quarter-by-quarter figures are steadier than the annual comparison suggests: 38% in October-December 2025, 33% for the half-year to March, 35% in April-June.
    Synektik S.A. and Synektik Group interim condensed financial statements for 1 October 2025 - 30 June 2026 (third quarter of the fiscal year) - income statement, segment note, cash flow and balance sheet. — October 2025 - June 2026 · publ. 5 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026