◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Citigroup (C) — the variant view

The market has stopped pricing Citi below its assets, but it still values the whole bank rather than the Services franchise inside it.

📈 C valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

For most of the last decade the market said Citi was worth less than its tangible assets. At the end of 2018, and at every year end from 2020 to 2024, its market value was below its tangible common equity; at the end of 2022 it was about 0.55 times1234. In 2025 the shares rose about 70%5 and, in the proxy statement's words, "started trading above tangible book value"6. In September 2026 the price was about 1.33 times tangible book value per share7.

Market value to tangible common equity at year end (times)0.8420180.8420200.5520220.7920241.2320251.33Sep 2026Calculated from stockanalysis year-end values and Citigroup Forms 10-K; Sep 2026 per stockanalysis
Below tangible book until 2025.

What the market has paid for so far is the firm's return rising: 13.0% in the second quarter of 2026 against 7.7% for 202589. It has not priced the parts separately. Services, earning 24.6% on $33.0 billion of capital in 202510 and 30.9% in the latest quarter11, is a business that would command a high multiple on its own. All Other, losing $4,454 million on $39.2 billion12, is being sold or shrunk.

A second hidden asset is the gap between tangible equity and regulatory capital. Citi's Investor Day said improved American profitability would use up deferred tax assets and narrow the gap between its tangible common equity, about $170 billion, and its CET1 capital of about $157 billion13. That is capital that becomes distributable as the American businesses earn more.

The market is also cautious for good reasons: the target has moved three times and the consent orders remain. But the price at about 12.6 times trailing earnings14 still reflects a bank earning in the low teens, not one whose best business earns thirty.

One famous investor did not wait. Berkshire Hathaway sold its remaining Citigroup stake, about $1 billion, in the first quarter of 202515, before a year in which the shares rose about 70%16.

The balance sheet is also working harder. Citi's revenue was 6.2% of average risk-weighted assets in 2022 and 7.3% in 202517.

If Citi's return held above 12% for all of 2027 after Banamex left the books, the multiple would be pricing the wrong bank.

References
  1. ReportedAt the end of 2018, and at every year end from 2020 to 2024, its market value was below its tangible common equity; at the end of 2022 it was about 0.55 times.
    Citigroup market capitalisation history - calendar year-end values 2015-2025, including $208.79 billion at the end of 2025 and $87.60 billion at the end of 2022. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAt the end of 2018, and at every year end from 2020 to 2024, its market value was below its tangible common equity; at the end of 2022 it was about 0.55 times.
    Citigroup Form 10-K for fiscal 2022 - RoTCE and common equity for 2018-2022, and the Australia consumer sale. — FY2022 · publ. February 2023 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAt the end of 2018, and at every year end from 2020 to 2024, its market value was below its tangible common equity; at the end of 2022 it was about 0.55 times.
    Citigroup Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - selected financial data: revenue, net income, EPS, RoTCE, efficiency ratio, deposits, capital ratios and requirements, repurchases and capital returned. — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcAt the end of 2018, and at every year end from 2020 to 2024, its market value was below its tangible common equity; at the end of 2022 it was about 0.55 times.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Citigroup and peer figures ($ millions unless stated). Deposit cost: Bank of America 34,513 / (1,469,705 + 514,477) = 34,513 / 1,984,182 = 1.74%; Citi non-interest-bearing share 202,705 / 1,363,051 = 14.9%, about 15%; gap to JPMorgan 2.57% - 1.80% = 0.77 points; 0.0077 x 1,363,051 = 10,495, about $10.5 billion a year; 10,495 / 19,828 pre-tax income = 53%, more than half; JPMorgan average deposits 2,506,565 / 1,363,051 = 1.84 times. Market value: JPMorgan 911.91 / Citi 225.24 = 4.05, about four times; Citi / JPMorgan 225.24 / 911.91 = 0.247, about a quarter, about 0.25. Card partners: 12% x 85,225 = 10,227, roughly $10.2 billion. Institutional deposits 934 / 1,403.6 = 66.5%, about two-thirds, about 67%; other deposits 1,403.6 - 934 = 469.6. Banamex stake sold 25% + 22.6% = 47.6%. Shares: period-end common shares 1,747.5 / 1,903.1 - 1 = -8.2%, about 8%; average diluted shares 1,873.1 / 3,007.7 - 1 = -37.7%, about 38%. Market value over tangible common equity at year end ($bn): 2018 127.14 / 151.078 = 0.84; 2019 174.42 / 148.809 = 1.17; 2020 128.37 / 153.389 = 0.84; 2021 119.83 / 157.077 = 0.76; 2022 87.60 / 158.151 = 0.55; 2023 98.45 / 164.025 = 0.60; 2024 133.13 / 167.698 = 0.79; 2025 208.79 / 169.618 = 1.23. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 14,306 - 8,083 + 11,616 = 17,839; revenue 85,225 - 43,264 + 49,399 = 91,360; diluted EPS 6.99 - 3.92 + 6.21 = 9.28; P/E 225,250 / 17,839 = 12.6; P/S 225,250 / 91,360 = 2.47. Year-end P/E and P/S (market value over net income and revenue): 2015 154.16 / 17.242 = 8.94, 154.16 / 77.277 = 1.995; 2016 169.36 / 14.912 = 11.36, / 70.797 = 2.392; 2017 196.74 / 73.693 = 2.670 (net loss); 2018 127.14 / 18.045 = 7.05, / 74.036 = 1.717; 2019 174.42 / 19.401 = 8.99, / 75.067 = 2.324; 2020 128.37 / 11.047 = 11.62, / 75.501 = 1.700; 2021 119.83 / 21.952 = 5.46, / 71.574 = 1.674; 2022 87.60 / 14.845 = 5.90, / 74.982 = 1.168; 2023 98.45 / 9.228 = 10.67, / 78.066 = 1.261; 2024 133.13 / 12.682 = 10.50, / 80.722 = 1.649; 2025 208.79 / 14.306 = 14.59, / 85.225 = 2.450. More: end-of-period deposits 1,493 / 1,403.6 - 1 = 6.4%, about 6%; Markets average loans 176 / 794 total loans = 22.2%, about 22%; JPMorgan deposit-cost gap 2.72 - 1.70 = 1.02 points (2023), 3.06 - 2.08 = 0.98 points (2024), about 1.0 point; Bank of America non-interest-bearing share 514,477 / 1,984,182 = 25.9%, about 26%; Services old-basis average deposits 935 / 1,422 = 65.8%, about 66%; AO Citibank assets 13.5 / 2,657.2 = 0.51%, about 0.5%; loss 1.2 / 13.5 = 8.9%, about 9%. Card partners against the card segment: 10,227 / 18,258 = 56%, more than half. Return improvement to target: 14.5 - 8.8 = 5.7 points, roughly six. Forecast extrapolation: 2026 revenue 49,399 x 2 = 98,798; 2026 EPS 134.28 / 11.58 = 11.60; revenue growth (85,225 / 78,066)^(1/2) - 1 = 4.5% a year. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Citigroup's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, JPMorgan's and Bank of America's Forms 10-K, and market data from stockanalysis and companiesmarketcap; operands shown in the source line.
  5. ReportedIn 2025 the shares rose about 70% and, in the proxy statement's words, "started trading above tangible book value".
    companiesmarketcap, Citigroup stock price history - annual price performance, including +70.46% in 2025. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIn 2025 the shares rose about 70% and, in the proxy statement's words, "started trading above tangible book value".
    Citigroup 2026 proxy statement (DEF 14A) - chair and lead independent director, the BlackRock asset-management appointment, 5% holders and the 2025 share price. — April 2026 · publ. 2 April 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedIn September 2026 the price was about 1.33 times tangible book value per share.
    Citigroup (C) statistics - P/B 1.17, P/TBV 1.33, forward P/E 11.58, shares outstanding 1.68 billion. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedWhat the market has paid for so far is the firm's return rising: 13.0% in the second quarter of 2026 against 7.7% for 2025.
    Citigroup second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - firm results, returns, efficiency, capital returned, tangible book value and All Other. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedWhat the market has paid for so far is the firm's return rising: 13.0% in the second quarter of 2026 against 7.7% for 2025.
    Citigroup Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - selected financial data: revenue, net income, EPS, RoTCE, efficiency ratio, deposits, capital ratios and requirements, repurchases and capital returned. — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 20 February 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedServices, earning 24.6% on $33.0 billion of capital in 2025 and 30.9% in the latest quarter, is a business that would command a high multiple on its own.
    Citigroup Historical Quarterly Financial Data Supplement 2021-2025 recast to the first-quarter 2026 segments - Services: revenue by line and type, geography, deposits, loans, cross-border transaction value, clearing volume, custody assets and returns. — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 3 April 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedServices, earning 24.6% on $33.0 billion of capital in 2025 and 30.9% in the latest quarter, is a business that would command a high multiple on its own.
    Citigroup second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - Services, Markets and Banking results and key metrics. — Q2 2026 · publ. 14 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedAll Other, losing $4,454 million on $39.2 billion, is being sold or shrunk.
    Citigroup Historical Quarterly Financial Data Supplement 2021-2025 recast to the first-quarter 2026 segments, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 - segment revenue, income, capital and returns, All Other and share counts. — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 3 April 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedCiti's Investor Day said improved American profitability would use up deferred tax assets and narrow the gap between its tangible common equity, about $170 billion, and its CET1 capital of about $157 billion.
    Citigroup 2026 Investor Day financial overview presentation - RoTCE targets, business targets for Services, Cards and Markets, efficiency ratio, transformation, liquidity and capital. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  14. Moat Explorer calcBut the price at about 12.6 times trailing earnings still reflects a bank earning in the low teens, not one whose best business earns thirty.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Citigroup and peer figures ($ millions unless stated). Deposit cost: Bank of America 34,513 / (1,469,705 + 514,477) = 34,513 / 1,984,182 = 1.74%; Citi non-interest-bearing share 202,705 / 1,363,051 = 14.9%, about 15%; gap to JPMorgan 2.57% - 1.80% = 0.77 points; 0.0077 x 1,363,051 = 10,495, about $10.5 billion a year; 10,495 / 19,828 pre-tax income = 53%, more than half; JPMorgan average deposits 2,506,565 / 1,363,051 = 1.84 times. Market value: JPMorgan 911.91 / Citi 225.24 = 4.05, about four times; Citi / JPMorgan 225.24 / 911.91 = 0.247, about a quarter, about 0.25. Card partners: 12% x 85,225 = 10,227, roughly $10.2 billion. Institutional deposits 934 / 1,403.6 = 66.5%, about two-thirds, about 67%; other deposits 1,403.6 - 934 = 469.6. Banamex stake sold 25% + 22.6% = 47.6%. Shares: period-end common shares 1,747.5 / 1,903.1 - 1 = -8.2%, about 8%; average diluted shares 1,873.1 / 3,007.7 - 1 = -37.7%, about 38%. Market value over tangible common equity at year end ($bn): 2018 127.14 / 151.078 = 0.84; 2019 174.42 / 148.809 = 1.17; 2020 128.37 / 153.389 = 0.84; 2021 119.83 / 157.077 = 0.76; 2022 87.60 / 158.151 = 0.55; 2023 98.45 / 164.025 = 0.60; 2024 133.13 / 167.698 = 0.79; 2025 208.79 / 169.618 = 1.23. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net income 14,306 - 8,083 + 11,616 = 17,839; revenue 85,225 - 43,264 + 49,399 = 91,360; diluted EPS 6.99 - 3.92 + 6.21 = 9.28; P/E 225,250 / 17,839 = 12.6; P/S 225,250 / 91,360 = 2.47. Year-end P/E and P/S (market value over net income and revenue): 2015 154.16 / 17.242 = 8.94, 154.16 / 77.277 = 1.995; 2016 169.36 / 14.912 = 11.36, / 70.797 = 2.392; 2017 196.74 / 73.693 = 2.670 (net loss); 2018 127.14 / 18.045 = 7.05, / 74.036 = 1.717; 2019 174.42 / 19.401 = 8.99, / 75.067 = 2.324; 2020 128.37 / 11.047 = 11.62, / 75.501 = 1.700; 2021 119.83 / 21.952 = 5.46, / 71.574 = 1.674; 2022 87.60 / 14.845 = 5.90, / 74.982 = 1.168; 2023 98.45 / 9.228 = 10.67, / 78.066 = 1.261; 2024 133.13 / 12.682 = 10.50, / 80.722 = 1.649; 2025 208.79 / 14.306 = 14.59, / 85.225 = 2.450. More: end-of-period deposits 1,493 / 1,403.6 - 1 = 6.4%, about 6%; Markets average loans 176 / 794 total loans = 22.2%, about 22%; JPMorgan deposit-cost gap 2.72 - 1.70 = 1.02 points (2023), 3.06 - 2.08 = 0.98 points (2024), about 1.0 point; Bank of America non-interest-bearing share 514,477 / 1,984,182 = 25.9%, about 26%; Services old-basis average deposits 935 / 1,422 = 65.8%, about 66%; AO Citibank assets 13.5 / 2,657.2 = 0.51%, about 0.5%; loss 1.2 / 13.5 = 8.9%, about 9%. Card partners against the card segment: 10,227 / 18,258 = 56%, more than half. Return improvement to target: 14.5 - 8.8 = 5.7 points, roughly six. Forecast extrapolation: 2026 revenue 49,399 x 2 = 98,798; 2026 EPS 134.28 / 11.58 = 11.60; revenue growth (85,225 / 78,066)^(1/2) - 1 = 4.5% a year. — FY2015-Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Citigroup's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, JPMorgan's and Bank of America's Forms 10-K, and market data from stockanalysis and companiesmarketcap; operands shown in the source line.
  15. Third-party estimateBerkshire Hathaway sold its remaining Citigroup stake, about $1 billion, in the first quarter of 2025, before a year in which the shares rose about 70%.
    David Kass (University of Maryland) blog, 15 May 2025 - Berkshire Hathaway sold its remaining Citigroup stake (about $1 billion) in the first quarter of 2025, per its 13F. — Q1 2025 · publ. 15 May 2025 · source ↗
  16. ReportedBerkshire Hathaway sold its remaining Citigroup stake, about $1 billion, in the first quarter of 2025, before a year in which the shares rose about 70%.
    companiesmarketcap, Citigroup stock price history - annual price performance, including +70.46% in 2025. — 2015-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedCiti's revenue was 6.2% of average risk-weighted assets in 2022 and 7.3% in 2025.
    Citigroup 2026 Investor Day financial overview presentation - RoTCE targets, business targets for Services, Cards and Markets, efficiency ratio, transformation, liquidity and capital. — May 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026