◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — the variant view

Eight times earnings with five strong-sell ratings against three strong-buy: the multiple and the analysts are one opinion.

📈 KGH valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

KGHM trades at about 8,0 times trailing earnings and 1,7 times book1 after rising about two and a half times in a year. Eleven analysts have an average target of 318,28 złoty against a price of 347,25, and five rate the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy2. The market and the people paid to analyse it disagree, and the interesting question is what each side is looking at.

Price-to-earnings, year-end4,53x20215,31x20228,02x202415,23x20258,42x20262023 omitted - a loss year. The 2025 re-rating ran ahead of the earnings; 2026 delivered them
Eight times earnings with five strong-sell ratings against three strong-buy: the multiple and the analysts are one opinion.

Start with what the multiple is really saying. A mining company on 8 times earnings at the top of a metal cycle is not cheap; it is being told its earnings will not repeat. Consensus has 2026 revenue at 48,67 billion złoty and earnings of 44,49 złoty a share3 — roughly this year's run rate — and an average target 13% below the market price. The low multiple and the sell ratings are the same opinion: that this is a peak.

Three things sit underneath that consensus which are less widely discussed.

The first is that a third of the group's cash profit is invisible in its revenue. Sierra Gorda produced 3 115 million złoty of the group's 10 276 million of adjusted EBITDA in 20254 and contributes no revenue at all, because it is equity-accounted. Anyone valuing KGHM on a sales multiple is valuing about 70% of the business — and the group's non-current assets in Chile are 395 million złoty5 against a real exposure of 10 250 million in equity and loans6.

The second is the tax timetable. The minerals extraction tax coefficient for copper and silver is reduced for 2026 to 2028, with a capital-expenditure deduction from 20297. On a charge of 4 693 million złoty in 20258, that is the largest single swing factor in the next three years of earnings and it requires nothing of management.

The third is the composition of the recovery. Silver revenue at the parent roughly doubled in the first half of 2026 while copper rose 32,3%9, and silver volumes did not move10. The company is becoming more of a silver business every year without mining an ounce more of it.

What the market may be underweighting, then, is that KGHM is not really a copper cycle bet. It is a levered claim on two prices and one tax rate, and the tax rate is the only one moving in the shareholders' favour on a published schedule.

What it may be overlooking on the other side is that the cost base ratcheted during the good years and does not ratchet back: employee benefits up 15% in two years11, the pre-credit cost of copper up 14,7% in a half-year12.

The number to carry is the one that has decided every year of this company's history — the by-product credit. At 52 201 złoty a tonne before it and 17 415 after13, the silver price is not a detail of the KGHM investment case. It is most of it.

References
  1. ReportedKGHM trades at about 8,0 times trailing earnings and 1,7 times book after rising about two and a half times in a year.
    Market data (stockanalysis.com, cross-checked against a second source) - a close of 347,25 złoty a share on 22 September 2026, within a day that ranged 339,45 to 350,60, on 200 million shares for a market value of about 69,5bn złoty, roughly 8,0 times trailing net profit of 8 687m złoty and 1,7 times book, on trailing twelve-month revenue of 43 521m złoty and earnings of 43,44 złoty a share; eleven analysts average a 318,28 target, five rating the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy — 22 September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedEleven analysts have an average target of 318,28 złoty against a price of 347,25, and five rate the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy.
    Market data (stockanalysis.com, cross-checked against a second source) - a close of 347,25 złoty a share on 22 September 2026, within a day that ranged 339,45 to 350,60, on 200 million shares for a market value of about 69,5bn złoty, roughly 8,0 times trailing net profit of 8 687m złoty and 1,7 times book, on trailing twelve-month revenue of 43 521m złoty and earnings of 43,44 złoty a share; eleven analysts average a 318,28 target, five rating the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy — 22 September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Third-party estimateConsensus has 2026 revenue at 48,67 billion złoty and earnings of 44,49 złoty a share — roughly this year's run rate — and an average target 13% below the market price.
    Analyst consensus for KGHM (stockanalysis.com) - eleven analysts with an average price target of 318,28 złoty, a high of 450 and a low of 209, of whom five rate the shares a strong sell and three a strong buy; consensus 2026 revenue of 48,67bn złoty and earnings of 44,49 złoty a share — 2026-2028 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedSierra Gorda produced 3 115 million złoty of the group's 10 276 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 and contributes no revenue at all, because it is equity-accounted.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the financial review and metal markets (adjusted EBITDA of 10 276m złoty against 8 457m in 2024, 5 362m in 2023, 8 865m in 2022 and 10 327m in 2021, of which Sierra Gorda contributed 3 115m and KGHM INTERNATIONAL 1 860m; average copper of 9 945 USD/t against 8 478 in 2023; average silver of 40,03 USD/oz against 28,27 in 2024 and 23,35 in 2023; and an average USD/PLN rate of 3,76 against 4,20 in 2023) — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedAnyone valuing KGHM on a sales multiple is valuing about 70% of the business — and the group's non-current assets in Chile are 395 million złoty against a real exposure of 10 250 million in equity and loans.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group consolidated financial statements for 2025 (group revenue of 36 366m złoty with the parent at 30 964m and KGHM INTERNATIONAL at 3 439m; parent copper revenue of 22 378m and silver revenue of 6 133m; minerals extraction tax of 4 693m against 3 865m in 2024 and 3 496m in 2023; employee benefits of 6 303m; purchased metal-bearing materials of 8 335m; parent net profit of 1 946m against a group profit of 3 688m; total assets of 58 240m, equity of 32 898m and involvement in the Sierra Gorda joint venture of 10 250m including 8 436m of loans) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAnyone valuing KGHM on a sales multiple is valuing about 70% of the business — and the group's non-current assets in Chile are 395 million złoty against a real exposure of 10 250 million in equity and loans.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group consolidated financial statements for 2025 (group revenue of 36 366m złoty with the parent at 30 964m and KGHM INTERNATIONAL at 3 439m; parent copper revenue of 22 378m and silver revenue of 6 133m; minerals extraction tax of 4 693m against 3 865m in 2024 and 3 496m in 2023; employee benefits of 6 303m; purchased metal-bearing materials of 8 335m; parent net profit of 1 946m against a group profit of 3 688m; total assets of 58 240m, equity of 32 898m and involvement in the Sierra Gorda joint venture of 10 250m including 8 436m of loans) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe minerals extraction tax coefficient for copper and silver is reduced for 2026 to 2028, with a capital-expenditure deduction from 2029.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group condensed consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2026 (the note stating that revenues from no single contractor exceeded 10% of group sales, the geographical breakdown by end-customer location totalling 21 927m złoty with Poland at 4 845m and Germany at 2 815m, parent revenue of 14 430m from copper and 5 843m from silver, the amending act on the minerals extraction tax in force from 1 January 2026, the group structure and equity accounting of Sierra Gorda, and derivative counterparty concentration) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedOn a charge of 4 693 million złoty in 2025, that is the largest single swing factor in the next three years of earnings and it requires nothing of management.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group consolidated financial statements for 2025 (group revenue of 36 366m złoty with the parent at 30 964m and KGHM INTERNATIONAL at 3 439m; parent copper revenue of 22 378m and silver revenue of 6 133m; minerals extraction tax of 4 693m against 3 865m in 2024 and 3 496m in 2023; employee benefits of 6 303m; purchased metal-bearing materials of 8 335m; parent net profit of 1 946m against a group profit of 3 688m; total assets of 58 240m, equity of 32 898m and involvement in the Sierra Gorda joint venture of 10 250m including 8 436m of loans) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedSilver revenue at the parent roughly doubled in the first half of 2026 while copper rose 32,3%, and silver volumes did not move.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, financial results (revenue of 24 711m złoty up 40,8%, profit for the period of 5 579m against 580m, adjusted EBITDA of 9 198m up 89,1%, capital expenditure of 1 663m, net debt down 13,5% to 4 691m, equity of 39 814m, available financing of 16 978m, and the 1 979m złoty increase in the minerals extraction tax on higher copper and silver prices) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedSilver revenue at the parent roughly doubled in the first half of 2026 while copper rose 32,3%, and silver volumes did not move.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, financial results (revenue of 24 711m złoty up 40,8%, profit for the period of 5 579m against 580m, adjusted EBITDA of 9 198m up 89,1%, capital expenditure of 1 663m, net debt down 13,5% to 4 691m, equity of 39 814m, available financing of 16 978m, and the 1 979m złoty increase in the minerals extraction tax on higher copper and silver prices) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedWhat it may be overlooking on the other side is that the cost base ratcheted during the good years and does not ratchet back: employee benefits up 15% in two years, the pre-credit cost of copper up 14,7% in a half-year.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, production, unit costs and employment (electrolytic copper of 291,5 thousand tonnes of which 183,6 thousand from own concentrate, metallic silver of 696,7 tonnes, the pre-precious-metals-credit unit cost of 52 201 złoty a tonne against a total unit cost of 17,415, C1 of 2,44 USD/lb, average group employment of 34 543 including 18 870 at the parent, and payable copper from the international assets of 59,5 thousand tonnes of which Sierra Gorda 40,2 and Robinson 17,7) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedWhat it may be overlooking on the other side is that the cost base ratcheted during the good years and does not ratchet back: employee benefits up 15% in two years, the pre-credit cost of copper up 14,7% in a half-year.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, production, unit costs and employment (electrolytic copper of 291,5 thousand tonnes of which 183,6 thousand from own concentrate, metallic silver of 696,7 tonnes, the pre-precious-metals-credit unit cost of 52 201 złoty a tonne against a total unit cost of 17,415, C1 of 2,44 USD/lb, average group employment of 34 543 including 18 870 at the parent, and payable copper from the international assets of 59,5 thousand tonnes of which Sierra Gorda 40,2 and Robinson 17,7) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedAt 52 201 złoty a tonne before it and 17 415 after, the silver price is not a detail of the KGHM investment case.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, production, unit costs and employment (electrolytic copper of 291,5 thousand tonnes of which 183,6 thousand from own concentrate, metallic silver of 696,7 tonnes, the pre-precious-metals-credit unit cost of 52 201 złoty a tonne against a total unit cost of 17,415, C1 of 2,44 USD/lb, average group employment of 34 543 including 18 870 at the parent, and payable copper from the international assets of 59,5 thousand tonnes of which Sierra Gorda 40,2 and Robinson 17,7) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026