Seventy-Eight Percent of It Goes to EuropeThin moat
KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — moat facet
KGHM ships cathode and rod to European industry, not concentrate to Chinese smelters.
Where KGHM's metal ends up is unusual for a miner and increasingly relevant.
In the first half of 2026 the parent's 21 927 million złoty of revenue went, by end-customer location, mainly to Europe: 4 845 million to Poland, 2 815 million to Germany, 2 445 million to the United Kingdom, 1 554 million to Czechia, 1 497 million to Italy and 1 345 million to Switzerland, with smaller amounts across the rest of the continent1. China took 1 097 million and the United States 1 378 million2.
Roughly 78% of the parent's sales are to European end customers, and about 22% never leave Poland3.
That matters for two reasons. The first is commercial: European cable and industrial customers value short, secure supply chains, and a supplier three hundred kilometres away with its own smelters is worth a relationship rather than a spot order. The second is political: the European Union has spent several years designating copper and its co-products as strategic, and KGHM's own strategy names ensuring raw materials for Poland and Europe as a priority4.
The qualification is that a European sales book does not make a European price. Copper sells at the London price everywhere, and the geography of the customers changes the logistics rather than the economics.
The measure is whether that European share converts into anything — a premium, a contract, a policy benefit. The NKT agreement to 20365 is the first real evidence that it does.
The European share of parent sales is roughly unchanged, though the mix inside it is moving: the United Kingdom roughly doubled and Hong Kong appeared from nothing.
By end-customer location the parent's first-half revenue went 4 845m złoty to Poland, 2 815m to Germany and 2 445m to the United Kingdom, against 1 097m to China. Most of the world's mined copper goes to Chinese smelters; KGHM sells finished metal to European industry. Watch whether that share converts into a premium, a contract or a policy benefit.
Source: KGHM Group condensed consolidated financial statements for H1 2026 ↗- ReportedIn the first half of 2026 the parent's 21 927 million złoty of revenue went, by end-customer location, mainly to Europe: 4 845 million to Poland, 2 815 million to Germany, 2 445 million to the United Kingdom, 1 554 million to Czechia,...KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, financial results (revenue of 24 711m złoty up 40,8%, profit for the period of 5 579m against 580m, adjusted EBITDA of 9 198m up 89,1%, capital expenditure of 1 663m, net debt down 13,5% to 4 691m, equity of 39 814m, available financing of 16 978m, and the 1 979m złoty increase in the minerals extraction tax on higher copper and silver prices) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedChina took 1 097 million and the United States 1 378 million.KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group condensed consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2026 (the note stating that revenues from no single contractor exceeded 10% of group sales, the geographical breakdown by end-customer location totalling 21 927m złoty with Poland at 4 845m and Germany at 2 815m, parent revenue of 14 430m from copper and 5 843m from silver, the amending act on the minerals extraction tax in force from 1 January 2026, the group structure and equity accounting of Sierra Gorda, and derivative counterparty concentration) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
- Moat Explorer calcRoughly 78% of the parent's sales are to European end customers, and about 22% never leave Poland.Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures KGHM reports: ore grade (30 387 thousand tonnes of copper over 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore, and 91 837 tonnes of silver over the same), the by-product credit (52 201 less 17 415 złoty a tonne), the European share of parent sales (about 17 147m of 21 927m), copper and silver as a share of parent revenue (22 378m and 6 133m of 30 964m), the minerals extraction tax against parent net profit (4 693m over 1 946m), the dividend against trailing earnings (1,50 against 43,44 a share), and own concentrate as a share of refined output (183,6 of 291,5 thousand tonnes) — FY2023-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe second is political: the European Union has spent several years designating copper and its co-products as strategic, and KGHM's own strategy names ensuring raw materials for Poland and Europe as a priority.KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, the Strategy of the KGHM Group 2055+ approved on 3 July 2026 and its targets (payable copper production above 730 thousand tonnes a year of which about 590 thousand from Polish assets including 180 thousand from scrap, adjusted EBITDA averaging 12 billion złoty at a 25,6% margin, capital expenditure above 32 billion złoty across 2026-2030, at least 220 MW of installed renewable capacity, the Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line at 725 million dollars raising output about 20% while shortening the life of mine by three years, the Deep Glogow Deposit Access Program, and shareholders including the State Treasury at 31,79%) — 2026-2030 and beyond · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe NKT agreement to 2036 is the first real evidence that it does.KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group condensed consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2026 (the note stating that revenues from no single contractor exceeded 10% of group sales, the geographical breakdown by end-customer location totalling 21 927m złoty with Poland at 4 845m and Germany at 2 815m, parent revenue of 14 430m from copper and 5 843m from silver, the amending act on the minerals extraction tax in force from 1 January 2026, the group structure and equity accounting of Sierra Gorda, and derivative counterparty concentration) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗