⚠ These Are the Best Prices KGHM Has Ever SeenHigh threat

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — threat to the moat

Copper averaged 38,7% higher on the half and silver 141% higher, on production from KGHM's own rock up 0,6%.

Almost everything good in KGHM's recent results is a price, and both prices spent the half far above anything KGHM had sold into before.

What actually changed, H1 2026 vs H1 2025x9,6Profit for the period+89,1%Adjusted EBITDA+40,8%Revenue+0,6%Copper fromown concentrateCopper averaged +38,7% on the half and silver +141%; the mine did what it did last year
Nothing underground changed. The cost base that ratcheted up during the good years will still be there when the prices leave.

Copper on the London Metal Exchange averaged 13 083 dollars a tonne over the first half of 2026, 38,7% above the 9 431 of a year earlier, in a half that ranged from 11 826 to 14 0971. Silver averaged 78,83 dollars an ounce against 32,76, up nearly 141%2. KGHM's own 2025 averages were 9 945 dollars a tonne and 40,03 dollars an ounce3.

The effect on results is not subtle. Group profit for the first half of 2026 was 5 579 million złoty against 580 million a year earlier4, on sales volumes that moved 2,7% for copper and 4,2% for silver5. Trailing twelve-month net profit is 8 687 million złoty against 3 688 million for the whole of 2025.

Nothing about the mine changed. Production from own concentrate rose 0,6%6.

What makes this a threat rather than an observation is the cost structure underneath. The wage bill rose 15% over two years7, the pre-credit cost of a tonne of copper rose 14,7% in the last half-year8, and the minerals extraction tax rises with the metal price and does not retreat with it. Those costs stay when the prices leave.

Silver's own half shows how fast that unwinds. It opened the year at 71,99 dollars an ounce, reached 118,45 on 29 January, and ended the half at 58,80 — below where it started, inside the six months that produced the record9. The longer precedent is unambiguous: in 2023, with silver at 23,35 dollars and copper soft, the group lost 3 691 million złoty10.

The number that tests this threat is what the people paid to forecast it believe. Eleven analysts carry an average price target of 318,28 złoty against a market price of 347,25, and five of them rate the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy11. That is what an 8,4-times multiple on record earnings actually means: not that the shares are cheap, but that almost nobody expects this to be the run rate.

The number that tests this threat
Third-party estimate
Analyst view against the market price
average target 318,28 złoty against 347,25 złoty; five strong sells, three strong buys

Group profit for the first half of 2026 was 5 579 million złoty against 580 million, on production from KGHM's own concentrate up 0,6%. Copper averaged 13 083 dollars a tonne on the half against 9 431 a year earlier, and silver 78,83 an ounce against 32,76. The cost base underneath does not retreat with the metals: the wage bill rose 15% in two years and the pre-credit cost of a tonne of copper rose 14,7% in the last half-year. In 2023, with softer prices, the group lost 3 691 million złoty. Eleven analysts have an average target 13% below the market price, which is what an 8,4-times multiple on record earnings means.

Source: Analyst consensus for KGHM (stockanalysis.com) ↗
References
  1. ReportedCopper on the London Metal Exchange averaged 13 083 dollars a tonne over the first half of 2026, 38,7% above the 9 431 of a year earlier, in a half that ranged from 11 826 to 14 097.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, market factors (an average LME copper cash settlement price of 13 083 USD/t against 9 431 a year earlier, up 38,7%, in a half ranging from 11 826 to 14 097; an average LBMA silver price of 78,83 USD/troz against 32,76, nearly 141% higher, which opened the year at 71,99, reached 118,45 on 29 January and ended the half at 58,80; gold at 4 693 USD/troz against 3 067; and molybdenum at 27,42 USD/lb) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedSilver averaged 78,83 dollars an ounce against 32,76, up nearly 141%.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, market factors (an average LME copper cash settlement price of 13 083 USD/t against 9 431 a year earlier, up 38,7%, in a half ranging from 11 826 to 14 097; an average LBMA silver price of 78,83 USD/troz against 32,76, nearly 141% higher, which opened the year at 71,99, reached 118,45 on 29 January and ended the half at 58,80; gold at 4 693 USD/troz against 3 067; and molybdenum at 27,42 USD/lb) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAgainst that, KGHM's 2025 averages were 9 945 dollars a tonne and 40,03 dollars an ounce.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the financial review and metal markets (adjusted EBITDA of 10 276m złoty against 8 457m in 2024, 5 362m in 2023, 8 865m in 2022 and 10 327m in 2021, of which Sierra Gorda contributed 3 115m and KGHM INTERNATIONAL 1 860m; average copper of 9 945 USD/t against 8 478 in 2023; average silver of 40,03 USD/oz against 28,27 in 2024 and 23,35 in 2023; and an average USD/PLN rate of 3,76 against 4,20 in 2023) — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedGroup profit for the first half of 2026 was 5 579 million złoty against 580 million a year earlier, on sales volumes that moved 2,7% for copper and 4,2% for silver.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, financial results (revenue of 24 711m złoty up 40,8%, profit for the period of 5 579m against 580m, adjusted EBITDA of 9 198m up 89,1%, capital expenditure of 1 663m, net debt down 13,5% to 4 691m, equity of 39 814m, available financing of 16 978m, and the 1 979m złoty increase in the minerals extraction tax on higher copper and silver prices) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedGroup profit for the first half of 2026 was 5 579 million złoty against 580 million a year earlier, on sales volumes that moved 2,7% for copper and 4,2% for silver.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, financial results (revenue of 24 711m złoty up 40,8%, profit for the period of 5 579m against 580m, adjusted EBITDA of 9 198m up 89,1%, capital expenditure of 1 663m, net debt down 13,5% to 4 691m, equity of 39 814m, available financing of 16 978m, and the 1 979m złoty increase in the minerals extraction tax on higher copper and silver prices) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedProduction from own concentrate rose 0,6%.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the production and unit-cost record (electrolytic copper of 570,9 thousand tonnes against 588,7 in 2024, 592,4 in 2023 and 560,4 in 2020; metallic silver of 1 323 tonnes against 1 403 in 2023; C1 payable copper production cost of 3,16 USD/lb for the Polish assets against 1,03 for KGHM INTERNATIONAL and 0,86 for Sierra Gorda; group payable copper of 710,0 thousand tonnes against 753,7 in 2021; wire rod and wire production of 279,9 thousand tonnes; and world mined silver production of about 25,3 thousand tonnes) — FY2018-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe wage bill rose 15% over two years, the pre-credit cost of a tonne of copper rose 14,7% in the last half-year, and the minerals extraction tax rises with the metal price and does not retreat with it.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, production, unit costs and employment (electrolytic copper of 291,5 thousand tonnes of which 183,6 thousand from own concentrate, metallic silver of 696,7 tonnes, the pre-precious-metals-credit unit cost of 52 201 złoty a tonne against a total unit cost of 17,415, C1 of 2,44 USD/lb, average group employment of 34 543 including 18 870 at the parent, and payable copper from the international assets of 59,5 thousand tonnes of which Sierra Gorda 40,2 and Robinson 17,7) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe wage bill rose 15% over two years, the pre-credit cost of a tonne of copper rose 14,7% in the last half-year, and the minerals extraction tax rises with the metal price and does not retreat with it.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, production, unit costs and employment (electrolytic copper of 291,5 thousand tonnes of which 183,6 thousand from own concentrate, metallic silver of 696,7 tonnes, the pre-precious-metals-credit unit cost of 52 201 złoty a tonne against a total unit cost of 17,415, C1 of 2,44 USD/lb, average group employment of 34 543 including 18 870 at the parent, and payable copper from the international assets of 59,5 thousand tonnes of which Sierra Gorda 40,2 and Robinson 17,7) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedSilver's own half shows how fast that unwinds: it opened the year at 71,99 dollars an ounce, reached 118,45 on 29 January, and ended the half at 58,80 - below where it started.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, market factors (an average LME copper cash settlement price of 13 083 USD/t against 9 431 a year earlier, up 38,7%, in a half ranging from 11 826 to 14 097; an average LBMA silver price of 78,83 USD/troz against 32,76, nearly 141% higher, which opened the year at 71,99, reached 118,45 on 29 January and ended the half at 58,80; gold at 4 693 USD/troz against 3 067; and molybdenum at 27,42 USD/lb) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe longer precedent is unambiguous: in 2023, with silver at 23,35 dollars and copper soft, the group lost 3 691 million złoty.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the financial review and metal markets (adjusted EBITDA of 10 276m złoty against 8 457m in 2024, 5 362m in 2023, 8 865m in 2022 and 10 327m in 2021, of which Sierra Gorda contributed 3 115m and KGHM INTERNATIONAL 1 860m; average copper of 9 945 USD/t against 8 478 in 2023; average silver of 40,03 USD/oz against 28,27 in 2024 and 23,35 in 2023; and an average USD/PLN rate of 3,76 against 4,20 in 2023) — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedEleven analysts carry an average price target of 318,28 złoty against a market price of 347,25, and five of them rate the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy.
    Market data (stockanalysis.com, cross-checked against a second source) - a close of 347,25 złoty a share on 22 September 2026, within a day that ranged 339,45 to 350,60, on 200 million shares for a market value of about 69,5bn złoty, roughly 8,0 times trailing net profit of 8 687m złoty and 1,7 times book, on trailing twelve-month revenue of 43 521m złoty and earnings of 43,44 złoty a share; eleven analysts average a 318,28 target, five rating the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy — 22 September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026