Forty Years of Ore, Already PermittedNarrow moat

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — moat facet

The concessions exist, the shafts are sunk, and the environmental argument was had decades ago.

The single most valuable sentence KGHM publishes is an unglamorous one: current deposits will suffice for the next forty to fifty years of mining activities1.

Sixty years mined, forty to fifty left60 yrsAlready mined40 yrsRemaining, low case50 yrsRemaining, high caseMore ore remains than sixty years of mining has already removed
A working life longer than most of the people who will spend it there, with the permits already granted.

Behind it sit 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore holding 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver2. At the rate the Polish mines actually work — 570,9 thousand tonnes of electrolytic copper in 20253 — that is not a resource statement designed to flatter a share price. It is a working life longer than most of the people who will spend it there.

What makes it a barrier rather than merely an asset is that the permitting is done. A copper deposit under a populated European region is worth nothing until a state agrees it may be mined, and Poland agreed decades ago. The concessions exist, the mining areas are defined, the surface infrastructure is built, and the environmental and social arguments that would attend a new application have already been had.

The honest qualification is that reserve life is calculated at an assumed price, and a boom lengthens it on paper without anyone drilling. But KGHM's grades are high enough that the calculation is not delicate: at roughly 1,6% copper, the ore stays economic across a far wider price band than a 0,4% open pit does.

The measure is the reserve life restated each year against production. If forty to fifty becomes thirty to forty without a corresponding fall in output, the deposit is depleting faster than the disclosure suggests.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

The reserve life statement has not changed and the concessions are not in question. This is the most durable single fact about the company.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Copper contained in the licensed deposits
30 387 thousand tonnes

Against Polish output of 570,9 thousand tonnes of electrolytic copper in 2025, the contained metal is measured in decades rather than years - and the permits, mining areas and surface infrastructure already exist. A reserve is calculated at an assumed price, so watch whether the stated life moves when the copper price does.

Source: KGHM - mining and enrichment ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
A Reserve Is Not a Plan
Output fell 3,6% in two years against a reserve that did not shrink - the constraint was never the rock.
References
  1. ReportedThe single most valuable sentence KGHM publishes is an unglamorous one: current deposits will suffice for the next forty to fifty years of mining activities.
    KGHM Polska Miedz - mining and enrichment (geological resources at 31 December 2025 of 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore containing 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver; a deposit dipping from a few hundred metres to 1 500; the statement that current deposits will suffice for the next 40-50 years of mining activities; concentrator output of about two million tonnes of concentrate at 23% copper a year; and more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper produced over sixty years) — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedBehind it sit 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore holding 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver.
    KGHM Polska Miedz - mining and enrichment (geological resources at 31 December 2025 of 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore containing 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver; a deposit dipping from a few hundred metres to 1 500; the statement that current deposits will suffice for the next 40-50 years of mining activities; concentrator output of about two million tonnes of concentrate at 23% copper a year; and more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper produced over sixty years) — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAt the rate the Polish mines actually work — 570,9 thousand tonnes of electrolytic copper in 2025 — that is not a resource statement designed to flatter a share price.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the production and unit-cost record (electrolytic copper of 570,9 thousand tonnes against 588,7 in 2024, 592,4 in 2023 and 560,4 in 2020; metallic silver of 1 323 tonnes against 1 403 in 2023; C1 payable copper production cost of 3,16 USD/lb for the Polish assets against 1,03 for KGHM INTERNATIONAL and 0,86 for Sierra Gorda; group payable copper of 710,0 thousand tonnes against 753,7 in 2021; wire rod and wire production of 279,9 thousand tonnes; and world mined silver production of about 25,3 thousand tonnes) — FY2018-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026