⚠ The Best Ore Was Mined FirstModerate threat

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — threat to the moat

More money, the same copper: own-concentrate output rose 0,6% on a plan spending 6,5bn złoty a year.

Sixty years of production has a corollary nobody enjoys stating: the tonnes taken were, on average, the better ones.

More capital, the same copper+0,6%Own-concentrate output growth, H1 20266,5Planned capex, zl bn a yearSixty years of mining works outward and downward from the most accessible ore
The observable proxy for depletion is output against effort, and effort is winning.

KGHM has extracted more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper1 from the shallowest and richest parts of the deposit it could reach. The ore that remains is deeper, which is why the GG-1 shaft goes to 1 348 metres2 and why the access programme is building refrigeration underground3.

Whether it is also poorer is the question the disclosure does not answer directly. The resource statement gives 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper in 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore4, an average of roughly 1,6%, but an average across a whole deposit says nothing about the sequence in which the parts of it get mined.

The observable proxy is the trend in output against effort: production from own concentrate rose 0,6% in the first half of 20265 while capital spending ran at more than 6,5 billion złoty a year across the plan period6. More money, the same copper.

One reassurance is that the resource statement is not shrinking. At the end of 2025 it still held 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore7, which is more than sixty years of mining has already removed8 - so whatever the sequencing has cost in grade, it has not cost KGHM the scale of the deposit.

The number to watch is copper produced from own concentrate per złoty of capital expenditure. It is not a ratio KGHM publishes, but both halves are disclosed, and the direction it has taken over five years is the honest measure of whether the deposit is getting harder.

References
  1. ReportedKGHM has extracted more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper from the shallowest and richest parts of the deposit it could reach.
    KGHM Polska Miedz - mining and enrichment (geological resources at 31 December 2025 of 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore containing 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver; a deposit dipping from a few hundred metres to 1 500; the statement that current deposits will suffice for the next 40-50 years of mining activities; concentrator output of about two million tonnes of concentrate at 23% copper a year; and more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper produced over sixty years) — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe ore that remains is deeper, which is why the GG-1 shaft goes to 1 348 metres and why the access programme is building refrigeration underground.
    KGHM press office - the GG-1 shaft at Kwielice, at 1 348 metres the deepest mining pit in Poland, connecting the Polkowice-Sieroszowice and Rudna mines — 2023 · publ. 30 June 2023 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe ore that remains is deeper, which is why the GG-1 shaft goes to 1 348 metres and why the access programme is building refrigeration underground.
    KGHM press office - the GG-1 shaft at Kwielice, at 1 348 metres the deepest mining pit in Poland, connecting the Polkowice-Sieroszowice and Rudna mines — 2023 · publ. 30 June 2023 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe resource statement gives 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper in 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore, an average of roughly 1,6%, but an average across a whole deposit says nothing about the sequence in which the parts of it get mined.
    KGHM Polska Miedz - mining and enrichment (geological resources at 31 December 2025 of 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore containing 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver; a deposit dipping from a few hundred metres to 1 500; the statement that current deposits will suffice for the next 40-50 years of mining activities; concentrator output of about two million tonnes of concentrate at 23% copper a year; and more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper produced over sixty years) — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe observable proxy is the trend in output against effort: production from own concentrate rose 0,6% in the first half of 2026 while capital spending ran at more than 6,5 billion złoty a year across the plan period.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, the Strategy of the KGHM Group 2055+ approved on 3 July 2026 and its targets (payable copper production above 730 thousand tonnes a year of which about 590 thousand from Polish assets including 180 thousand from scrap, adjusted EBITDA averaging 12 billion złoty at a 25,6% margin, capital expenditure above 32 billion złoty across 2026-2030, at least 220 MW of installed renewable capacity, the Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line at 725 million dollars raising output about 20% while shortening the life of mine by three years, the Deep Glogow Deposit Access Program, and shareholders including the State Treasury at 31,79%) — 2026-2030 and beyond · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe observable proxy is the trend in output against effort: production from own concentrate rose 0,6% in the first half of 2026 while capital spending ran at more than 6,5 billion złoty a year across the plan period.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, the Strategy of the KGHM Group 2055+ approved on 3 July 2026 and its targets (payable copper production above 730 thousand tonnes a year of which about 590 thousand from Polish assets including 180 thousand from scrap, adjusted EBITDA averaging 12 billion złoty at a 25,6% margin, capital expenditure above 32 billion złoty across 2026-2030, at least 220 MW of installed renewable capacity, the Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line at 725 million dollars raising output about 20% while shortening the life of mine by three years, the Deep Glogow Deposit Access Program, and shareholders including the State Treasury at 31,79%) — 2026-2030 and beyond · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAt the end of 2025 it still held 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore, which is more than sixty years of mining has already removed - so whatever the sequencing has cost in grade, it has not cost KGHM the scale of the deposit.
    KGHM Polska Miedz - mining and enrichment (geological resources at 31 December 2025 of 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore containing 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver; a deposit dipping from a few hundred metres to 1 500; the statement that current deposits will suffice for the next 40-50 years of mining activities; concentrator output of about two million tonnes of concentrate at 23% copper a year; and more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper produced over sixty years) — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedAt the end of 2025 it still held 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore, which is more than sixty years of mining has already removed - so whatever the sequencing has cost in grade, it has not cost KGHM the scale of the deposit.
    KGHM Polska Miedz - mining and enrichment (geological resources at 31 December 2025 of 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore containing 30 387 thousand tonnes of copper and 91 837 tonnes of silver; a deposit dipping from a few hundred metres to 1 500; the statement that current deposits will suffice for the next 40-50 years of mining activities; concentrator output of about two million tonnes of concentrate at 23% copper a year; and more than one and a half billion tonnes of output and 23 million tonnes of copper produced over sixty years) — 2025 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026