⚠ Europe Is Not GrowingModerate threat

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — threat to the moat

A customer base concentrated in the slowest-growing large economy on earth.

A sales book concentrated in Europe is a sales book concentrated in the slowest-growing large economy on earth.

Where the growth came from, H1 2026 vs H1 2025 (zl m)2 445United Kingdom1 345Switzerland457Hong Kong2 815GermanyThe UK roughly doubled and Hong Kong appeared from nothing; Germany grew 11%
Copper finds the buyer, and the buyer moves - which is the quiet answer to a slow European industrial base.

About 78% of the parent's first-half revenue went to European end customers1, with Germany the largest foreign market at 2 815 million złoty2. German industrial production has been broadly flat to declining for several years, and European construction — the other great copper consumer — has been constrained by interest rates and permitting.

The optimistic reading is that the copper Europe needs is not for the old economy but the new one: grid reinforcement, offshore wind connections, electric vehicles and data centres. The NKT relationship, running to December 20363, is precisely a bet on high-voltage cable demand.

The pessimistic reading is that European industrial policy has been better at announcing demand than creating it, and that if the electrification build-out disappoints, KGHM's geography leaves it selling into the weakest region rather than the strongest.

Either way the price is the same everywhere, so the exposure is to volume and to relationships rather than to realisation.

The shift is already visible at the margin. Sales to the United Kingdom roughly doubled to 2 445 million złoty in the first half of 2026, Switzerland went from 510 million to 1 345 million, and Hong Kong went from nothing to 457 million4. Copper finds the buyer, and the buyer moves.

The number to watch is the Polish and German share of revenue against Asia and the Americas. China took 1 097 million złoty in the half and the United States 1 378 million5; if those grow while Europe does not, the geography is quietly rebalancing regardless of the strategy.

References
  1. Moat Explorer calcAbout 78% of the parent's first-half revenue went to European end customers, with Germany the largest foreign market at 2 815 million złoty.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures KGHM reports: ore grade (30 387 thousand tonnes of copper over 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore, and 91 837 tonnes of silver over the same), the by-product credit (52 201 less 17 415 złoty a tonne), the European share of parent sales (about 17 147m of 21 927m), copper and silver as a share of parent revenue (22 378m and 6 133m of 30 964m), the minerals extraction tax against parent net profit (4 693m over 1 946m), the dividend against trailing earnings (1,50 against 43,44 a share), and own concentrate as a share of refined output (183,6 of 291,5 thousand tonnes) — FY2023-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcAbout 78% of the parent's first-half revenue went to European end customers, with Germany the largest foreign market at 2 815 million złoty.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures KGHM reports: ore grade (30 387 thousand tonnes of copper over 1 858 259 thousand tonnes of ore, and 91 837 tonnes of silver over the same), the by-product credit (52 201 less 17 415 złoty a tonne), the European share of parent sales (about 17 147m of 21 927m), copper and silver as a share of parent revenue (22 378m and 6 133m of 30 964m), the minerals extraction tax against parent net profit (4 693m over 1 946m), the dividend against trailing earnings (1,50 against 43,44 a share), and own concentrate as a share of refined output (183,6 of 291,5 thousand tonnes) — FY2023-H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe NKT relationship, running to December 2036, is precisely a bet on high-voltage cable demand.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group condensed consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2026 (the note stating that revenues from no single contractor exceeded 10% of group sales, the geographical breakdown by end-customer location totalling 21 927m złoty with Poland at 4 845m and Germany at 2 815m, parent revenue of 14 430m from copper and 5 843m from silver, the amending act on the minerals extraction tax in force from 1 January 2026, the group structure and equity accounting of Sierra Gorda, and derivative counterparty concentration) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedSales to the United Kingdom roughly doubled to 2 445 million złoty in the first half of 2026, Switzerland went from 510 million to 1 345 million, and Hong Kong went from nothing to 457 million.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, financial results (revenue of 24 711m złoty up 40,8%, profit for the period of 5 579m against 580m, adjusted EBITDA of 9 198m up 89,1%, capital expenditure of 1 663m, net debt down 13,5% to 4 691m, equity of 39 814m, available financing of 16 978m, and the 1 979m złoty increase in the minerals extraction tax on higher copper and silver prices) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedChina took 1 097 million złoty in the half and the United States 1 378 million; if those grow while Europe does not, the geography is quietly rebalancing regardless of the strategy.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group condensed consolidated financial statements for the first half of 2026 (the note stating that revenues from no single contractor exceeded 10% of group sales, the geographical breakdown by end-customer location totalling 21 927m złoty with Poland at 4 845m and Germany at 2 815m, parent revenue of 14 430m from copper and 5 843m from silver, the amending act on the minerals extraction tax in force from 1 January 2026, the group structure and equity accounting of Sierra Gorda, and derivative counterparty concentration) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026