⚠ Buybacks at Thirty-Eight Times EarningsModerate threat

Ferrari (RACE) — threat to the moat

Buying your own shares at thirty-eight times earnings is a judgment that the moat holds, made with the shareholders' money.

Returning everything you earn is a virtue with no margin for a bad year.

Buying your own shares at 38 times earnings2025 buybacks€785MH1 2026 buybacks€209M, plus a €599M dividendNet industrial position, 31 Mar 2026Net cash €388MNet industrial position, 30 Jun 2026Net debt €131MTrailing multiple paid38.4x earnings, 8.55x salesAffordable against a €1.55bn industrial free-cash-flow guide - and a judgment, not a formality.
Repurchasing stock at 38 times earnings is a bet that the moat holds, placed with shareholders' money rather than management's.

Ferrari paid €534 million of dividends and repurchased €785 million of shares in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 returned more than €800 million — a €599 million dividend plus €209 million of buybacks.1 That took the company from net industrial cash of €388 million at the end of March to net industrial debt of €131 million by the end of June.2

The amounts are entirely affordable against €1,600 million of net profit and guidance of at least €1.55 billion of industrial free cash flow for 2026.3 The point is not solvency. It is that a policy of returning essentially all of it leaves the balance sheet doing no work, in a company that has an electric transition to fund, a flexible production line to pay for, and a financing book to carry.

Buybacks at 38.4× earnings are also a specific capital-allocation judgment: Ferrari is buying its own shares at a valuation that assumes the moat holds.4 If it does, that is the right trade. If shipments ever have to grow to sustain the numbers, it will look like the most expensive stock Ferrari ever bought.

Watch net industrial debt. A second consecutive half of drawdown while capital spending rises would mean the returns are outrunning the cash.

References
  1. ReportedFerrari paid €534 million of dividends and repurchased €785 million of shares in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 returned more than €800 million — a €599 million dividend plus €209 million of buybacks. That took the company from net industrial cash of €388 million at the end of March to net industrial debt of €131 million by the end of June.
    Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThat took the company from net industrial cash of €388 million at the end of March to net industrial debt of €131 million by the end of June. The amounts are entirely affordable against €1,600 million of net profit and guidance of at least €1.55 billion of industrial free cash flow for 2026.
    Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe amounts are entirely affordable against €1,600 million of net profit and guidance of at least €1.55 billion of industrial free cash flow for 2026. The point is not solvency.
    Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
  4. ReportedBuybacks at 38.4× earnings are also a specific capital-allocation judgment: Ferrari is buying its own shares at a valuation that assumes the moat holds. If it does, that is the right trade.
    Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE) market data — share price about $414, market capitalisation about EUR62.9 billion (about $73 billion) on approximately 177.0 million shares outstanding net of treasury; trailing price/earnings about 38.4 and price/sales about 8.55, on trailing twelve-month revenue of EUR7,353M and net profit of EUR1,639M; dividend yield about 1.0%; 52-week range $312.51 to $504.49, leaving the shares about 18% below the high. The euro/dollar rate used is 1.1652. — August 2026 · publ. 2026-08-28 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026