⚠ Mix and Personalisation Are Not the Same LeverModerate threat
Ferrari (RACE) — threat to the moat
Mix runs out; personalisation might not. The reported number blends them, and Ferrari does not separate them.
Ferrari does not disclose revenue per car, which means the single most important number in the investment case has to be inferred.
Cars and spare parts revenue divided by shipments gives roughly €440,000 in 2025 against €417,000 in 2024, and that rise is where nearly all of the year's growth came from.1 But the numerator includes spare parts and the denominator counts every car equally, so the figure blends a €250,000 Roma with a multi-million-euro limited series. A shift in model mix moves it without anything changing about how much a client spends on personalising a given car.
That matters because the two are strategically different. Mix improvement means selling more expensive models — a finite lever, since Ferrari eventually runs out of price points. Personalisation means selling the same models for more — potentially unbounded, but dependent on clients choosing to spend.
Ferrari's guidance language blurs them deliberately, attributing raises to "stronger personalizations" without quantifying the split.2 An investor cannot tell whether the growth engine is durable or a one-off product cycle.
Watch revenue per car through a model transition. If it holds when an expensive limited series rolls off, personalisation is doing the work. If it drops, the growth was mix, and mix runs out.
- ReportedCars and spare parts revenue divided by shipments gives roughly €440,000 in 2025 against €417,000 in 2024, and that rise is where nearly all of the year's growth came from. But the numerator includes spare parts and the denominator counts every car equally, so the figure blends a €250,000 Roma with a multi-million-euro limited series.Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 5, Operating and Financial Review. Total shipments of 13,640 cars against 13,752 in 2024 and 13,663 in 2023; shipment figures exclude strictly limited racing cars such as those in the XX Programme and the 499P Modificata, as well as one-off, pre-owned and other special sales. Net revenues of EUR7,146M, up 7.0%. Net revenues from cars and spare parts were EUR6,005M, an increase of EUR277M or 4.8% on EUR5,728M in 2024 and EUR5,119M in 2023, attributed primarily to a richer product and country mix as well as a higher contribution from personalization, more than offsetting the lower contribution from the Daytona SP3 whose limited series deliveries concluded in the third quarter of 2025; foreign currency effects including hedging were negative. Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenues were EUR820M, up 22.4% from EUR670M and EUR572M in the two prior years, comprising sponsorship of Scuderia Ferrari, Ferrari share of the Formula 1 World Championship commercial revenues distributed to teams, and lifestyle, merchandising, licensing and royalty income; other net revenues were EUR321M, up EUR42M. Selling, general and administrative costs were EUR642M in 2025, an increase of EUR81M or 14.5% on EUR561M, and 9.0% of net revenues against 8.4%, attributed primarily to racing expenses and brand investments as well as organizational development. Net revenues by year run EUR3,105M (2016), EUR3,417M, EUR3,420M, EUR3,766M, EUR3,460M (2020), EUR4,271M, EUR5,095M, EUR5,970M, EUR6,677M and EUR7,146M (2025). — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
- ReportedFerrari's guidance language blurs them deliberately, attributing raises to "stronger personalizations" without quantifying the split. An investor cannot tell whether the growth engine is durable or a one-off product cycle.Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗