✦ The Ferrari LuceThin moat

Ferrari (RACE) — the future bets

The Ferrari Luce is the first Ferrari whose success would prove something the company has never had to prove.

The Ferrari Luce is the first Ferrari whose success would prove something the company has never had to prove.

The Ferrari Luce timelineOct 2025chassis shownshares -16.18%Feb 2026named Luceinterior revealedPhase 3 notyet donelaunch incomplete~20% of the2030 line-upcut from ~40%Used pricestwo years onthe answerFerrari cut the 2030 electric target in half and the shares fell 16.18% the same day.
The first Ferrari whose success would prove something the company has never had to prove. Everything else here is already observable.

It was shown as the Ferrari elettrica in October 2025 and named in February 2026, on a three-phase launch Ferrari has not yet completed; shipments of cars presented in 2025 commence in future years.1 At the same event Ferrari cut its 2030 electric target to about 20% of the line-up, half the 40% of the 2022 plan, attributing the revision to client demand — and the shares fell as much as 16.18% that day, the steepest drop since the 2016 listing.2

Nothing else in this company requires a leap of faith. The waiting list is observable, the margins are audited, the residual values are auctioned in public. The Luce requires believing that a Ferrari client — someone who has bought repeatedly, who values the object as much as the transport, and for whom the engine has been part of the product for seventy-eight years — will pay Ferrari prices for a car that is silent.

The evidence available is unhelpful in both directions. Other manufacturers' electric halo cars have sold poorly. But nobody has launched one with Ferrari's client list, its allocation mechanism, or its ability to make the first examples scarce.

What matters is not whether the Luce sells out — it will, because the first ones always do. It is whether the second and third generations hold their allocation queues and their residual values.

Watch the used market on the Luce two years after launch. If it depreciates like an electric car rather than holding like a Ferrari, the 20% target is optimistic and the moat is narrower than it looks.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Ferrari cut its 2030 electric target from about 40% of the line-up to about 20% on client demand, which is the company telling the market that this bet is smaller than it previously thought.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Total research and development, first half
€534M in H1 2026, from €526M (€234M capitalized)

The electric programme is paid for here; R&D rising well ahead of revenue would mean the transition is costing more than the plan allowed.

Source: Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (SEC 6-K exhibit) ↗
References
  1. ReportedIt was shown as the Ferrari elettrica in October 2025 and named in February 2026, on a three-phase launch Ferrari has not yet completed; shipments of cars presented in 2025 commence in future years. At the same event Ferrari cut its 2030 electric target to about 20% of the line-up, half the 40% of the 2022 plan, attributing the revision to client demand — and the shares fell as much as 16.18% t...
    Reporting on the market reaction to Ferrari Capital Markets Day, 9 October 2025. Ferrari cut its 2030 fully electric target to 20% of production, from 40% in its 2022 plan, with hybrids and combustion models each accounting for 40%. The shares fell as much as 16.18% to EUR350.80, their steepest drop since the company listed in Milan in 2016, erasing about EUR13.5 billion of market value, as investors reacted to lower-than-expected financial targets and the reduced electric-vehicle plan. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAt the same event Ferrari cut its 2030 electric target to about 20% of the line-up, half the 40% of the 2022 plan, attributing the revision to client demand — and the shares fell as much as 16.18% that day, the steepest drop since the 2016 listing. Nothing else in this company requires a leap of faith.
    Reporting on the market reaction to Ferrari Capital Markets Day, 9 October 2025. Ferrari cut its 2030 fully electric target to 20% of production, from 40% in its 2022 plan, with hybrids and combustion models each accounting for 40%. The shares fell as much as 16.18% to EUR350.80, their steepest drop since the company listed in Milan in 2016, erasing about EUR13.5 billion of market value, as investors reacted to lower-than-expected financial targets and the reduced electric-vehicle plan. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026