⚠ Personalised Cars Depreciate More, and Ferrari Says SoModerate threat

Ferrari (RACE) — threat to the moat

Ferrari's own filing says personalised cars depreciate faster — so the growth engine is running against the residual-value loop that makes the queue possible.

1. ReportedIt is why 2026 guidance was raised on "stronger personalizations than initially expected." The cost is in the filing.
   Ferrari N.V., second-quarter 2026 results press release (filed with the SEC as an exhibit to Form 6-K). Net revenues of EUR1,938M, up 8% and up 11% at constant currency; EBIT of EUR605M at a 31.2% margin, up 10% and up 16% at constant currency; EBITDA of EUR755M at a 39.0% margin; net profit of EUR463M; diluted earnings per share of EUR2.62; industrial free cash flow of EUR276M, up 39%. For the first half, net revenues of EUR3,786M (up 6%), EBIT of EUR1,153M at a 30.5% margin, net profit of EUR876M, diluted EPS of EUR4.95 and industrial free cash flow of EUR929M (up 14%). Second-quarter shipments totalled 3,366 cars against 3,494, with EMEA up 210 to 1,856, the Americas down 206 to 787, Greater China down 89 to 185 and the rest of Asia-Pacific down 43 to 538; first-half shipments were 6,802 against 7,087, with EMEA 3,314 (down 33), the Americas 1,817 (down 198), Greater China 440 (down 71) and the rest of Asia-Pacific 1,231 (up 17). Results were attributed to personalisations and mix, with deliveries of the 12Cilindri, 12Cilindri Spider, Purosangue and 296 Speciale families rising while the 296 GTS, Roma Spider and SF90 XX families phased out and the Amalfi and 849 Testarossa ramped; racing revenue rose on sponsorship and on the supply of power units to other Formula 1 teams. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to net revenues of about EUR7.60bn from about EUR7.50bn, adjusted EBITDA of at least EUR2.97bn (at least 39.0% of revenue), adjusted EBIT of at least EUR2.26bn (at least 29.5%), adjusted diluted EPS of at least EUR9.68 and industrial free cash flow of at least EUR1.55bn, on stronger personalizations than initially expected and lower than anticipated currency headwinds, net of hedges. Chief executive Benedetto Vigna stated that the order book entirely covers 2027. More than EUR800M was returned during the quarter — a EUR599M dividend instalment and EUR209M of share repurchases — taking the company from net industrial cash of EUR388M at 31 March 2026 to net industrial debt of EUR131M at 30 June 2026. Trailing twelve-month figures to June 2026 are net revenues of EUR7,353M, net profit of EUR1,639M and diluted EPS of EUR9.23. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07 · source ↗
2. ReportedHigher personalisation content "may also adversely affect residual value" because "personalized content generally depreciates substantially with change of ownership." The next buyer did not choose the colour, the stitching or the plaque, and will not pay for them.
   Ferrari N.V., Form 20-F FY2025 — Item 3.D, Risk Factors. The filing states that its focus on maintaining exclusivity limits its potential sales growth and profits. It warns that increasing production relative to the number of collectors may adversely affect the value of its cars as collectible items and their value in the secondary market, and that the resilience of the value of its cars after a period of ownership promotes repeat purchases. On personalisation, it warns that a higher level of personalization content may also adversely affect residual value, because personalized content generally depreciates substantially with change of ownership. On electrification, it states that electric technology is a core component of its strategy and that if the introduction of such technology proves too costly or is unsuccessful in the market its results of operations could be materially adversely affected, and that other manufacturers of luxury sports cars may be more successful at implementing it; it also warns that the shift to hybrid and electric models may adversely affect residual values if secondary sales occur at wider discounts than for combustion cars. Additional risk factors address dependence on a single production site in Maranello, the performance of independent dealers, and the risk that the interests of its largest shareholders may differ from those of other shareholders. Among the named risks and uncertainties are the success of its racing activities, and the sponsorship and commercial revenues and expenses of its racing activities as well as the popularity of motor sports more broadly. The filing states that revenues from sponsorship, commercial and brand activities are influenced by the strength and appeal of the brand, the historical success and current performance of its racing teams through Scuderia Ferrari in the FIA Formula 1 World Championship and the Ferrari Endurance Team in the World Endurance Championship, and the overall popularity of Formula 1 and other racing competitions. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02 · source ↗
3. ReportedFerrari is expanding the programme, with new Tailor Made centres in Tokyo and Los Angeles by 2027, alongside the existing ones in Maranello, New York and Shanghai. Watch used prices on heavily specified cars against standard ones.
   Ferrari N.V., Capital Markets Day 2030 Strategic Plan — business section, filed with the SEC as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 6-K on 9 October 2025. An average of four new car launches per year is planned between 2026 and 2030. The Ferrari elettrica will be an addition to the range product offering. In 2030 the product line-up will be 40% ICE, 40% hybrid and 20% electric. Ferrari targets 90,000 active clients, a 20% increase compared to 2022. New Tailor Made centers will open in Tokyo and Los Angeles to get closer to clients, and two new flagship stores in London and New York. The audience is described as ranging from 180,000 Ferraristi to more than 400 million tifosi. Strategic electric components are designed, engineered and handcrafted in Maranello. — October 2025 · publ. 2025-10-09 · source ↗

• Ferrari N.V. Form 20-F, FY2025 (SEC EDGAR)