✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Procter & Gamble (PG) — the future bets

P&G's next moves are a supplement brand, fewer office jobs and more marketing: continuations of the model, not a new one.

P&G's future bets are modest by design. The company's plan for fiscal 2027 is organic sales growth of 1% to 3% and core EPS of $6.89 to $7.11, a midpoint of $7.001. Its long-term aim is core EPS growth of mid-to-high single digits2. The gap between the two is what the bets are meant to close.

P&G core EPS ($)6.83FY20256.89FY20266.89FY2027 low7.00FY2027 mid7.11FY2027 highP&G Q4 FY2026 earnings release; FY2027 is company guidance
A plan for flat to slightly higher.

There are four. The first is Thorne, a premium wellness and supplement brand P&G agreed to buy for $3.8 billion in August 20263, its largest health purchase since Merck KGaA's over-the-counter business for $3.7 billion in fiscal 20194. The second is restructuring: up to 7,000 non-manufacturing overhead roles cut by the end of fiscal 20275. The third is a change of leadership, with Shailesh Jejurikar chief executive from 1 January 2026 and chairman from 1 August 20266. The fourth is spending: P&G reinvested 410 basis points of sales in the June 2026 quarter, primarily in marketing7, on the view that superiority wins share.

None of these changes the business. They are a continuation of the model: buy a leader in a daily-use category, take out cost, spend it on the brands.

The fiscal 2027 plan also fixes the cash. P&G expects a core effective tax rate of about 20%, capital spending of 4.5% to 5.5% of sales, adjusted free cash flow productivity of 85% to 90%, about $10 billion of dividends and about $5 billion of share repurchases8. The bets have to be paid for out of what remains after those commitments.

These are bets that can restore mid-single-digit earnings growth but not transform P&G. The falsifier is fiscal 2027 core EPS; the guidance midpoint of $7.009 is only about 1.5% above fiscal 2026, and landing at or below $6.89 would mean the bets have not yet paid for the costs P&G expects in the year.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

FY2027 core EPS guided $6.89-7.11; Thorne pending; restructuring more than half done.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Core EPS guidance midpoint, FY2027
$7.00 (+1.5%)

What the bets are expected to deliver next year; a cut below $6.89 would mean they are not yet paying.

Source: P&G Q4 FY2026 results release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
Thorne: $3.8 Billion for Supplements
P&G is paying $3.8 billion for Thorne, a supplement brand, betting its playbook works in wellness as it did in cold remedies and fibre.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
Seven Thousand Roles by 2027
P&G is cutting up to 7,000 office jobs by 2027 and has already reduced its workforce 4% in a year.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
Jejurikar's First Full Year
P&G handed the company to the executive who ran its most profitable business, just as growth fell to 1%.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
Beauty: Growth Bought With Marketing
Beauty grew volume 4% in fiscal 2026, the only P&G segment to do so, and earned less doing it.
References
  1. ReportedThe company's plan for fiscal 2027 is organic sales growth of 1% to 3% and core EPS of $6.89 to $7.11, a midpoint of $7.00.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIts long-term aim is core EPS growth of mid-to-high single digits.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - Item 1 business and Item 2 properties: employees, manufacturing sites, customers, channels, competition and strategy. — FY2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe first is Thorne, a premium wellness and supplement brand P&G agreed to buy for $3.8 billion in August 2026, its largest health purchase since Merck KGaA's over-the-counter business for $3.7 billion in fiscal 2019.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - notes: restructuring, goodwill and intangibles, acquisitions and divestitures, subsequent events and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe first is Thorne, a premium wellness and supplement brand P&G agreed to buy for $3.8 billion in August 2026, its largest health purchase since Merck KGaA's over-the-counter business for $3.7 billion in fiscal 2019.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2019 - the $8.3 billion Shave Care impairment, the Merck KGaA over-the-counter acquisition, five-year financial summary, segment shares, Walmart and top-ten customers. — FY2019 · publ. August 2019 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe second is restructuring: up to 7,000 non-manufacturing overhead roles cut by the end of fiscal 2027.
    Procter & Gamble Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) - notes: restructuring, goodwill and intangibles, acquisitions and divestitures, subsequent events and commitments. — FY2026 · publ. 4 August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe third is a change of leadership, with Shailesh Jejurikar chief executive from 1 January 2026 and chairman from 1 August 2026.
    Procter & Gamble release: Jejurikar named Chairman effective 1 August 2026; Jon Moeller retires. — July 2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe fourth is spending: P&G reinvested 410 basis points of sales in the June 2026 quarter, primarily in marketing, on the view that superiority wins share.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - quarterly and fiscal-year headline results and cash flow. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedP&G expects a core effective tax rate of about 20%, capital spending of 4.5% to 5.5% of sales, adjusted free cash flow productivity of 85% to 90%, about $10 billion of dividends and about $5 billion of share repurchases.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThese are bets that can restore mid-single-digit earnings growth but not transform P&G. The falsifier is fiscal 2027 core EPS; the guidance midpoint of $7.00 is only about 1.5% above fiscal 2026, and landing at or below $6.89 would mean the bets have not yet paid for the costs P&G expects in the year.
    Procter & Gamble fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, with fiscal 2027 guidance - fiscal 2027 guidance. — Q4 FY2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 26, 2026