⚠ The Small, Stagnant Home MarketHigh threat

GPW (GPW) — threat to the moat

A wide moat around a small pond — more delistings than IPOs, and no monopoly can grow traffic that isn't there.

The tension in GPW is a wide moat around a small market. The Main Market had 432 listed companies in 2020 and 403 in 20261; in 2025 three companies joined and thirteen left2. The market capitalisation of domestic companies was 22% of Poland's GDP at the end of 20243.

Capitalisation of domestic Main Market companies (zl bn)760,22023731,920241 037,42025GPW Management Board report 2025; 22% of GDP at end-2024
The boom added 300bn zł of value to a pond that had been shrinking.

For most of its listed life that kept GPW cheap: 10,4 times earnings in 2021 and 11,7 times at the end of 20244. The 2025–26 boom took the multiple to about 195, which prices a larger market than the listing count shows.

There are signs of change. Seven companies listed and four left in the first half of 20266, securities accounts rose by a record 564 900 in 20257, and S&P Dow Jones Indices will treat Poland as a developed market from September 20278.

The bear case is that the drift resumes when the boom ends. Watch the listed-company count at the end of 2026; a figure above 399, the end-2025 level9, would be the first annual rise in years.

The number that tests this threat
Reported
Companies listed on the Main Market, net change since 2020
432 in 2020 to 403 in 2026

The pond shrank by 29 companies in six years; a rising count would contradict this threat.

Source: GPW H1 2026 results presentation ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe Main Market had 432 listed companies in 2020 and 403 in 2026; in 2025 three companies joined and thirteen left.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe Main Market had 432 listed companies in 2020 and 403 in 2026; in 2025 three companies joined and thirteen left.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - market statistics: EOB turnover against European exchanges, investor shares of turnover, listings and delistings, securities accounts, fund inflows, OKI, GlobalConnect, WATS postponement, POLSTR bonds, IPO Academy — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe market capitalisation of domestic companies was 22% of Poland's GDP at the end of 2024.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - market statistics: EOB turnover against European exchanges, investor shares of turnover, listings and delistings, securities accounts, fund inflows, OKI, GlobalConnect, WATS postponement, POLSTR bonds, IPO Academy — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedFor most of its listed life that kept GPW cheap: 10,4 times earnings in 2021 and 11,7 times at the end of 2024.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - GPW shares and shareholders: EPS, dividend per share 2021-2025, dividend yield, P/E, share price, payout rates, State Treasury 35,01% of shares and 51,80% of votes — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. Third-party estimateThe 2025–26 boom took the multiple to about 19, which prices a larger market than the listing count shows.
    stockanalysis.com, WSE:GPW - price 99,00 złoty, market value 4,16bn zł, P/E 19,31, forward P/E 16,75, dividend yield 3,43%, revenue TTM 599,70m zł, average price target 75,57 złoty — 23 September 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSeven companies listed and four left in the first half of 2026, securities accounts rose by a record 564 900 in 2025, and S&P Dow Jones Indices will treat Poland as a developed market from September 2027.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedSeven companies listed and four left in the first half of 2026, securities accounts rose by a record 564 900 in 2025, and S&P Dow Jones Indices will treat Poland as a developed market from September 2027.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - market statistics: EOB turnover against European exchanges, investor shares of turnover, listings and delistings, securities accounts, fund inflows, OKI, GlobalConnect, WATS postponement, POLSTR bonds, IPO Academy — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedSeven companies listed and four left in the first half of 2026, securities accounts rose by a record 564 900 in 2025, and S&P Dow Jones Indices will treat Poland as a developed market from September 2027.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedWatch the listed-company count at the end of 2026; a figure above 399, the end-2025 level, would be the first annual rise in years.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - market statistics: EOB turnover against European exchanges, investor shares of turnover, listings and delistings, securities accounts, fund inflows, OKI, GlobalConnect, WATS postponement, POLSTR bonds, IPO Academy — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026