✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

GPW (GPW) — the future bets

GPW's problem was never the moat — it was that Poland's toll booth sits on a road with too little traffic. Every bet here is an attempt to put more traffic on the road.

GPW's problem has never been its moat. It is that Poland's toll booth sits on a road with too little traffic: the Main Market had 432 listed companies in 2020 and 403 in 20261. Every bet on this page is an attempt to put more traffic on the road.

H1 2026 revenue growth, year on year (%)Group revenue+17,3%Financial market+23,0%Commodity market+4,7%Other+25,6%GPW Q2 2026 results presentation
The financial market carried the half; the commodity market barely grew.

The first is new issuers. In the first half of 2026 seven companies listed on the Main Market and four left2; IPOs and secondary offerings raised 3 070,7 million złoty, less than the 4 612,2 million of a year earlier3. The second is energy: TGE's electricity trading rose in the first half, spot volume up 10,4% and forwards 18,2%4. The third is plumbing: WATS, a new in-house trading system with a budget of 173,0 million złoty5, and GlobalConnect, which lets Polish investors buy foreign shares and ETFs in Warsaw. The fourth is policy: the Personal Investment Account starts on 1 January 20276.

The first half showed what traffic does. Revenue rose 17,3% to 324,2 million złoty and adjusted net profit 18,2% to 127,9 million7. The second quarter showed its limit: revenue up 7,9%, adjusted profit up 1,1%8.

The grading is new listings, not turnover. A positive balance of listings over delistings in a full year would be the first in a decade; the 2025 count, 3 new against 13 out9, is the one to beat.

Moat trajectory: Widening

The IPO window has reopened, energy volumes are at multi-year records, the trading platform is being modernised, and the operating leverage is visibly converting volume into profit. For an exchange whose central weakness was traffic rather than moat, all four move the right variable. What would settle it is listings that persist beyond the boom.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
IPOs and SPOs on the Main Market, H1 2026
3 070,7m zł, from 4 612,2m zł

Issuance is the traffic a boom should bring; it fell in H1 2026 even as trading rose.

Source: GPW H1 2026 interim report ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
The IPO Window Reopens
Turnover is cyclical; a new listing is permanent — which is why net new companies, not gross issuance value, is the number that would actually redeem…
✦ FUTURE BET 02
TGE & the Energy Boom
The half of GPW that has nothing to do with stocks is running at records — and energy trades whether or not anyone wants to buy shares.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
WATS & GlobalConnect
If Poles can't buy global shares in Warsaw they'll buy them abroad, taking the commission and the data — keeping that flow domestic is defensive…
✦ FUTURE BET 04
The Operating Leverage
Profits growing half again as fast as revenue isn't clever management — it's what a toll booth does, and it works exactly as brutally in reverse.
References
  1. ReportedIt is that Poland's toll booth sits on a road with too little traffic: the Main Market had 432 listed companies in 2020 and 403 in 2026.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 seven companies listed on the Main Market and four left; IPOs and secondary offerings raised 3 070,7 million złoty, less than the 4 612,2 million of a year earlier.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 seven companies listed on the Main Market and four left; IPOs and secondary offerings raised 3 070,7 million złoty, less than the 4 612,2 million of a year earlier.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe second is energy: TGE's electricity trading rose in the first half, spot volume up 10,4% and forwards 18,2%.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe third is plumbing: WATS, a new in-house trading system with a budget of 173,0 million złoty, and GlobalConnect, which lets Polish investors buy foreign shares and ETFs in Warsaw.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe fourth is policy: the Personal Investment Account starts on 1 January 2027.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedRevenue rose 17,3% to 324,2 million złoty and adjusted net profit 18,2% to 127,9 million.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe second quarter showed its limit: revenue up 7,9%, adjusted profit up 1,1%.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedA positive balance of listings over delistings in a full year would be the first in a decade; the 2025 count, 3 new against 13 out, is the one to beat.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - market statistics: EOB turnover against European exchanges, investor shares of turnover, listings and delistings, securities accounts, fund inflows, OKI, GlobalConnect, WATS postponement, POLSTR bonds, IPO Academy — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026