Commodity market (TGE)Narrow moat

GPW (GPW) — moat facet

The most profitable business grows slowest, and its second-quarter EBITDA fell 18%.

The commodity market brought in 171,6 million złoty in 2025, 31,1% of GPW's revenue, up 12,5%1. It is the Polish Power Exchange (TGE), its clearing house IRGiT and InfoEngine. Trading was 97,8 million of it, clearing 51,9 million, the registers of certificates and guarantees of origin 19,6 million and information services 2,3 million2.

TGE group, 2026 change year on year (%)Revenue, H1+4,9%Revenue, Q2-6,8%EBITDA, H1+2,7%EBITDA, Q2-18,0%GPW Q2 2026 results presentation, TGE Group results
A growing first quarter, a shrinking second.

Within trading, electricity brought in 25,3 million złoty, gas 24,5 million, property rights to certificates 17,7 million and other fees paid by participants 30,3 million3. The pieces move in opposite directions. Gas revenue rose 54,0% on a record 208,9 terawatt-hours; electricity revenue fell 8,5% as volume fell to 119,5 terawatt-hours, and electricity forwards reached their lowest since 200945.

The line has grown slowly. It was 125,2 million złoty in 2015 and 171,6 million in 2025, about 3,2% a year67, and it fell in 2022, to 138,1 million8, the year electricity volume fell from 225,2 to 141,3 terawatt-hours9. Two policy changes explain much of the slowness: the electricity exchange obligation ended with effect from 2023, and the obligation to redeem green certificates was reduced, which more than halved the property-rights line1011. The TGE pages under The Moat cover both.

It is the most profitable business in the group. The TGE group's EBITDA margin was 48,9% in the first half of 2026, against 41,5% for the Warsaw parent12. Clearing is the steadiest part; its revenue has stayed between 38,5 and 51,9 million złoty for a decade13.

The two latest quarters diverged. The first half of 2026 brought 91,8 million złoty, up 4,7%, but the second quarter fell 7,3%14, and the TGE group's second-quarter EBITDA fell 18,0% to 17,5 million złoty15. Gas turnover fell 28,2% in the quarter16.

The outlook turns on a statute. A draft would reinstate the electricity obligation at 80% and raise the gas obligation from 55% to 85%17. If it passes, volume returns by law. If it does not, the number to watch is the TGE group's quarterly EBITDA, which fell 18,0% in the second quarter.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

TGE group revenue fell 6,8% and EBITDA 18,0% in Q2 2026 after growing in Q1.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
TGE group EBITDA, latest quarter
17,5m zł in Q2 2026, -18,0%

The most profitable business shrank in the quarter; a second fall would mark a turn in energy trading.

Source: GPW Q2 2026 results presentation ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe commodity market brought in 171,6 million złoty in 2025, 31,1% of GPW's revenue, up 12,5%.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTrading was 97,8 million of it, clearing 51,9 million, the registers of certificates and guarantees of origin 19,6 million and information services 2,3 million.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedWithin trading, electricity brought in 25,3 million złoty, gas 24,5 million, property rights to certificates 17,7 million and other fees paid by participants 30,3 million.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedGas revenue rose 54,0% on a record 208,9 terawatt-hours; electricity revenue fell 8,5% as volume fell to 119,5 terawatt-hours, and electricity forwards reached their lowest since 2009.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedGas revenue rose 54,0% on a record 208,9 terawatt-hours; electricity revenue fell 8,5% as volume fell to 119,5 terawatt-hours, and electricity forwards reached their lowest since 2009.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedIt was 125,2 million złoty in 2015 and 171,6 million in 2025, about 3,2% a year, and it fell in 2022, to 138,1 million, the year electricity volume fell from 225,2 to 141,3 terawatt-hours.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcIt was 125,2 million złoty in 2015 and 171,6 million in 2025, about 3,2% a year, and it fell in 2022, to 138,1 million, the year electricity volume fell from 225,2 to 141,3 terawatt-hours.
    Moat Explorer calculations from GPW's filed revenue lines (Basic financial data workbook, 2025 Management Board report, H1 2026 interim report) — 2015 - H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: CAGR = (2025/2015)^(1/10) - 1; shares = line / group revenue; revenue per 1bn zł of turnover = equity trading revenue / Main Market turnover
  8. ReportedIt was 125,2 million złoty in 2015 and 171,6 million in 2025, about 3,2% a year, and it fell in 2022, to 138,1 million, the year electricity volume fell from 225,2 to 141,3 terawatt-hours.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedIt was 125,2 million złoty in 2015 and 171,6 million in 2025, about 3,2% a year, and it fell in 2022, to 138,1 million, the year electricity volume fell from 225,2 to 141,3 terawatt-hours.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedTwo policy changes explain much of the slowness: the electricity exchange obligation ended with effect from 2023, and the obligation to redeem green certificates was reduced, which more than halved the property-rights line.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedTwo policy changes explain much of the slowness: the electricity exchange obligation ended with effect from 2023, and the obligation to redeem green certificates was reduced, which more than halved the property-rights line.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe TGE group's EBITDA margin was 48,9% in the first half of 2026, against 41,5% for the Warsaw parent.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedClearing is the steadiest part; its revenue has stayed between 38,5 and 51,9 million złoty for a decade.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedThe first half of 2026 brought 91,8 million złoty, up 4,7%, but the second quarter fell 7,3%, and the TGE group's second-quarter EBITDA fell 18,0% to 17,5 million złoty.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedThe first half of 2026 brought 91,8 million złoty, up 4,7%, but the second quarter fell 7,3%, and the TGE group's second-quarter EBITDA fell 18,0% to 17,5 million złoty.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  16. ReportedGas turnover fell 28,2% in the quarter.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  17. ReportedA draft would reinstate the electricity obligation at 80% and raise the gas obligation from 55% to 85%.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026