The MoatWide moat

GPW (GPW) — moat facet

GPW owns the only toll road through Polish capital markets — a legal-and-network monopoly with textbook toll-booth economics, wrapped around a small, slow pond and a state that owns the gate.

GPW has a genuinely wide moat, and the reason is structural. It runs the only regulated securities market in Poland, under a licence from the financial supervisor, and it runs the market everyone must use to reach Polish shares at home. In 2025 its main market handled 111,6 billion euros of order-book equity turnover, against a median of 46,3 billion for European exchanges1. No rival venue has ever been licensed alongside it.

Order-book equity turnover, GPW (EUR bn)70,0202161,5202261,0202377,42024111,62025GPW Management Board report 2025; FESE median EUR 46,3bn in 2025
More than twice the median European exchange in 2025, after two flat years.

The moat has two layers. The first is liquidity: traders go where other traders are, and a new venue starts with an empty order book. The second is law. A regulated market needs a licence, a rulebook, surveillance and a link to the national depository, KDPW, of which GPW itself owns a third2. Network effects plus a licence is as durable a combination as moats come.

GPW also owns TGE, the Polish Power Exchange, with its own clearing house. That is a second toll booth on different traffic: electricity, gas and the certificates the energy system runs on. It brought in 171,6 million złoty in 2025, 31,1% of group revenue3.

What the moat does not guarantee is margin. The reported EBITDA margin fell from 61,1% in 2017 to 26,9% in 2024 as salaries rose from 50,8 million złoty to 126,9 million and outside services from 53,2 million to 103,5 million4, and it recovered to 39,2% in 2025 only because turnover boomed5. A toll booth whose operating costs more than double in eight years is still a monopoly; it is a less profitable one.

The shares have been re-rated on the boom. At the end of 2024 they traded at 11,7 times earnings with a 6,4% dividend yield6; at 99,00 złoty in September 2026 they trade at about 19 times, with a yield near 3,4%7. The verdict is a wide but small moat under political ownership, now priced as a quality business rather than a cheap one.

The number that tests it is the EBITDA margin through the next quiet year. It was 43,1% in the first half of 20268. If it falls back toward the 27% of 2024 when turnover cools, the moat protects the franchise but not the profits, and 19 times earnings is too much.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Holding steady. This is a wide, durable monopoly moat — a legal-and-network lock on Polish securities trading plus the TGE energy exchange — but it sits around a small, slow-growing home market. The core equity franchise drifts sideways (few IPOs, some blue-chip leakage) while the energy, data, and benchmark vectors expand; the two roughly offset. A superb narrow-market monopoly holding its ground, which at this size is what a wide moat should do.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Return on equity, 12 months to June 2026
20,1%, from 17,8% a year earlier

The toll booth earns a fifth of its equity only in a boom; a fall back to the 14% of 2024 would show how much of the moat is the market.

Source: GPW H1 2026 interim report ↗
Aspects of the moat
DIG DEEPER 01
The Exchange Monopoly
One licensed venue, by law and by liquidity — the textbook exchange moat in its purest Polish form.
DIG DEEPER 02
The Commodity & Energy Exchange (TGE)
A second monopoly inside the first — Poland's power, gas, and carbon all trade through GPW's energy exchange.
DIG DEEPER 03
The Toll-Booth Economics
A toll road whose running costs rose 143% in nine years against revenue up 78%; the monopoly held, the margin did not.
DIG DEEPER 04
Diversification & Growth Beyond Trading
Data, benchmarks, new platforms — the growth vectors that must outrun a stagnant core.
References
  1. ReportedIn 2025 its main market handled 111,6 billion euros of order-book equity turnover, against a median of 46,3 billion for European exchanges.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - market statistics: EOB turnover against European exchanges, investor shares of turnover, listings and delistings, securities accounts, fund inflows, OKI, GlobalConnect, WATS postponement, POLSTR bonds, IPO Academy — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedA regulated market needs a licence, a rulebook, surveillance and a link to the national depository, KDPW, of which GPW itself owns a third.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIt brought in 171,6 million złoty in 2025, 31,1% of group revenue.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe reported EBITDA margin fell from 61,1% in 2017 to 26,9% in 2024 as salaries rose from 50,8 million złoty to 126,9 million and outside services from 53,2 million to 103,5 million, and it recovered to 39,2% in 2025 only because turnover boomed.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe reported EBITDA margin fell from 61,1% in 2017 to 26,9% in 2024 as salaries rose from 50,8 million złoty to 126,9 million and outside services from 53,2 million to 103,5 million, and it recovered to 39,2% in 2025 only because turnover boomed.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAt the end of 2024 they traded at 11,7 times earnings with a 6,4% dividend yield; at 99,00 złoty in September 2026 they trade at about 19 times, with a yield near 3,4%.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - GPW shares and shareholders: EPS, dividend per share 2021-2025, dividend yield, P/E, share price, payout rates, State Treasury 35,01% of shares and 51,80% of votes — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  7. Third-party estimateAt the end of 2024 they traded at 11,7 times earnings with a 6,4% dividend yield; at 99,00 złoty in September 2026 they trade at about 19 times, with a yield near 3,4%.
    stockanalysis.com, WSE:GPW - price 99,00 złoty, market value 4,16bn zł, P/E 19,31, forward P/E 16,75, dividend yield 3,43%, revenue TTM 599,70m zł, average price target 75,57 złoty — 23 September 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  8. ReportedIt was 43,1% in the first half of 2026.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026