⚠ The State-Ownership OverhangHigh threat

GPW (GPW) — threat to the moat

The Treasury controls the exchange and writes its market's rules — owner, regulator, and policymaker in one chair.

The State Treasury holds 35,01% of GPW's shares and, through preference shares carrying two votes each, 51,80% of the votes at the general meeting1. That is not an overhang; it is control. The state owns the exchange, writes the regulations it operates under, and controls many of the companies listed on it and the energy producers that trade on TGE.

Dividends paid by GPW (zl m)104,92021115,02022113,32023125,92024132,22025142,72026GPW Management Board report 2025; GPW H1 2026 interim report; Treasury share 35,01%
The state collects about a third of every dividend and controls the vote that sets it.

For a minority shareholder the risks are the usual ones: strategy steered by policy, management that changes with the political cycle, and conflicts between the state's roles. GPW's ventures outside its core business, from logistics to media auctions to agricultural venture capital funded by a ministry agency, are the kind of project a policy-minded owner starts; several have since been written off or are being wound down23.

The alignment that exists is financial. The state received about 50 million złoty of the August 2026 dividend4, and it wants a well-regarded national exchange. That alignment is a matter of shared interest rather than governance rights.

Watch the dividend policy and the non-core spending. A payout below 60% of profit, or new ventures outside the exchange, would show the state's priorities diverging from the minority's.

The number that tests this threat
Moat Explorer calc
Dividend paid to the State Treasury
50,0m zł in August 2026 (14 695 470 shares at 3,40 złoty)

The state holds 35,01% of the shares and 51,80% of the votes; its dividend interest rises with every raise.

How it's calculated: 14 695 470 State Treasury shares x 3,40 złoty dividend per share
Source: GPW H1 2026 interim report ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe State Treasury holds 35,01% of GPW's shares and, through preference shares carrying two votes each, 51,80% of the votes at the general meeting.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - GPW shares and shareholders: EPS, dividend per share 2021-2025, dividend yield, P/E, share price, payout rates, State Treasury 35,01% of shares and 51,80% of votes — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedGPW's ventures outside its core business, from logistics to media auctions to agricultural venture capital funded by a ministry agency, are the kind of project a policy-minded owner starts; several have since been written off or are being wound down.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedGPW's ventures outside its core business, from logistics to media auctions to agricultural venture capital funded by a ministry agency, are the kind of project a policy-minded owner starts; several have since been written off or are being wound down.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcThe state received about 50 million złoty of the August 2026 dividend, and it wants a well-regarded national exchange.
    Moat Explorer calculations from GPW's filed figures — 2016 - H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Growth rates and shares from the filed series; State Treasury dividend = 14 695 470 shares x 3,40 złoty; KDPW share of net profit = 44,4 / 197,6; WATS budget / 2025 revenue; revenue per employee = TTM revenue / FTEs
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026