⚠ The Payout Follows a Cyclical Profit DownModerate threat

GPW (GPW) — threat to the moat

A fat payout on a peak-year profit is a promise the next bust renegotiates.

The dividend is a share of a profit that moves with turnover. Net profit was 183,7 million złoty in 2018 and 120,5 million in 20191, a fall of 34% in a year2, and the dividend is set from that number.

Dividend payout rate (% of prior-year profit)77,3%202171,3%202297,1%202379,9%202488,7%202572,2%2026GPW Management Board report 2025; GPW H1 2026 interim report; policy 60-80%
Twice above the policy ceiling: the board protects the dividend, not the ratio.

The board has cushioned the swings by paying above its range: payout rates of 97,1% and 88,7% in two recent years3. That can be done once or twice. It cannot be done in a run of weak years without eating into the 469,5 million złoty of liquid assets the group held in June 20264, some of which the new trading system needs.

The yield has already fallen from 7,5% in 2022 to about 3,4% now56. An income investor buying today is buying a smaller yield on a profit that is near its peak.

Watch dividend per share against profit per share. When the payout rate goes above 80% for two years running, the dividend is being defended rather than earned.

References
  1. ReportedNet profit was 183,7 million złoty in 2018 and 120,5 million in 2019, a fall of 34% in a year, and the dividend is set from that number.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcNet profit was 183,7 million złoty in 2018 and 120,5 million in 2019, a fall of 34% in a year, and the dividend is set from that number.
    Moat Explorer calculations from GPW's filed figures — 2016 - H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Growth rates and shares from the filed series; State Treasury dividend = 14 695 470 shares x 3,40 złoty; KDPW share of net profit = 44,4 / 197,6; WATS budget / 2025 revenue; revenue per employee = TTM revenue / FTEs
  3. ReportedThe board has cushioned the swings by paying above its range: payout rates of 97,1% and 88,7% in two recent years.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - GPW shares and shareholders: EPS, dividend per share 2021-2025, dividend yield, P/E, share price, payout rates, State Treasury 35,01% of shares and 51,80% of votes — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt cannot be done in a run of weak years without eating into the 469,5 million złoty of liquid assets the group held in June 2026, some of which the new trading system needs.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe yield has already fallen from 7,5% in 2022 to about 3,4% now.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - GPW shares and shareholders: EPS, dividend per share 2021-2025, dividend yield, P/E, share price, payout rates, State Treasury 35,01% of shares and 51,80% of votes — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  6. Third-party estimateThe yield has already fallen from 7,5% in 2022 to about 3,4% now.
    stockanalysis.com, WSE:GPW - price 99,00 złoty, market value 4,16bn zł, P/E 19,31, forward P/E 16,75, dividend yield 3,43%, revenue TTM 599,70m zł, average price target 75,57 złoty — 23 September 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026