◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

Text (TXT) — the variant view

Nine times earnings for a company that resolves more conversations automatically than the best-funded firm in its market.

📈 TXT valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

The market has decided Text is a melting ice cube, and the evidence for that view is strong enough that the opposite case has to be made carefully.

Price-to-earnings, financial year end22,16xFY202223,75xFY202313,92xFY20248,28xFY20258,29xFY20269,38xnowMarket value fell from 3 687m zł to 967m zł while revenue rose from 295,7m zł to 329,1m zł
Three-quarters of the market value gone, on a business that resolves more than its rivals do.

The de-rating has been severe and rational. Text was worth 3 687 million złoty at 31 March 2023 and 967 million three years later1 — roughly three-quarters of the market value gone — while revenue rose from 295,7 million złoty to 329,1 million2. The multiple went from 23,8 times earnings to 8,33. Over the same period monthly recurring revenue stopped growing and then fell4, operating margin dropped from around 56% to 38,6%5, and the product that is 83,7% of revenue went into decline6.

Priced at about 9,4 times trailing earnings on a 10,4% dividend yield7, the shares now assume that continues.

Three things sit awkwardly with that assumption.

The first is the resolution rate. Text reports resolving 74% of conversations automatically against a 59% industry average8, and the closest available comparison — Fin, the agent from the company formerly called Intercom, which Text names as a competitor — is reported at 67% across roughly 8 000 businesses9. On the capability this market is currently buying, the melting ice cube appears to be ahead of the leader.

The second is that the pricing model has already been fixed, in the wrong place. Fin's shift to charging 99 cents per resolved outcome took its net revenue retention from 112% to 146%10. Text charges exactly 99 cents per resolution on its new suite11. The meter exists; it simply is not yet attached to the 83,7% of revenue that still bills by the seat12.

The third is that the cash is real and the balance sheet is unencumbered. Operating cash flow of 161,6 million złoty exceeded net profit of 116,6 million13, there is no debt, and the share count has never changed from 25 750 00014.

None of that makes the shares cheap on its own. A company can be technically excellent, correctly priced and still shrink — and the base loses 4% of its customers a month15.

What it does mean is that the market is pricing the trajectory of LiveChat and paying nothing for the possibility that the automation Text has demonstrably built gets attached to a price. The number that would force a repricing is the first quarter of recurring revenue growth that comes from new customers rather than from a price increase.

References
  1. ReportedText was worth 3 687 million złoty at 31 March 2023 and 967 million three years later - roughly three-quarters of the market value gone - while revenue rose from 295,7 million złoty to 329,1 million.
    Market data for Text S.A. (WSE:TXT), stockanalysis.com, cross-checked against a second source (a share price of 41,76 złoty on 25,75 million shares for a market value of about 1,08 billion złoty, roughly 9,4 times trailing earnings and 3,3 times sales, on trailing twelve-month revenue of 327,47m złoty and net income of 114,70m; a dividend of 4,26 złoty at a 10,36% yield; a 52-week range of 35,50 to 55,00; and fiscal-year-end market capitalisations of 2 637m złoty at 31 March 2022, 3 687m at 2023, 2 318m at 2024, 1 362m at 2025 and 967m at 2026) — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedText was worth 3 687 million złoty at 31 March 2023 and 967 million three years later - roughly three-quarters of the market value gone - while revenue rose from 295,7 million złoty to 329,1 million.
    Market data for Text S.A. (WSE:TXT), stockanalysis.com, cross-checked against a second source (a share price of 41,76 złoty on 25,75 million shares for a market value of about 1,08 billion złoty, roughly 9,4 times trailing earnings and 3,3 times sales, on trailing twelve-month revenue of 327,47m złoty and net income of 114,70m; a dividend of 4,26 złoty at a 10,36% yield; a 52-week range of 35,50 to 55,00; and fiscal-year-end market capitalisations of 2 637m złoty at 31 March 2022, 3 687m at 2023, 2 318m at 2024, 1 362m at 2025 and 967m at 2026) — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcThe multiple went from 23,8 times earnings to 8,3.
    Moat Explorer calculation - arithmetic on figures Text reports: monthly churn of 4% compounded over twelve months (1 - 0,96^12 = 38,7% of logos a year); revenue per team member (329 073 thousand złoty over 271 people = 1,21m); third-party services as a share of operating costs (159 821 of 201 291 = 79%) and employee benefits as a share (6 458 of 201 291 = 3,2%); operating cash flow against net profit (161 552 over 116 608 = 1,39); the dividend payout ratio (109,7m over 116,6m = 94%); the gap to the ARR target (100,0 less 89,52 = USD 10,5m); the fall in operating margin (50,1% less 38,6% = 11,5 points); the tax saved under the IP Box (126 680 at 19% less the 10 072 charged = about 14m złoty); the market value in dollars (1,08bn złoty at 0,2688 = USD 0,29bn); Text's share of the live-chat market (89,52 over about 1 100 = a twelfth); the largest new contract against revenue (seven figures over USD 88,2m = about 1%); and 500 dollars a month expressed annually (6 000 dollars); the price-to-earnings multiple at each financial year end (market value over net profit: 3 687 over 155,261 = 23,8 times, and 967 over 116,608 = 8,3); cost of goods sold as a share of revenue (85 588 over 354 178 = 24,2%, and 106 753 over 329 073 = 32,4%); and the effective tax rate (12 323 over 178 876 = 6,89%, and 10 072 over 126 680 = 7,95%) — FY2025/26 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedOver the same period monthly recurring revenue stopped growing and then fell, operating margin dropped from around 56% to 38,6%, and the product that is 83,7% of revenue went into decline.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, key performance indicators (monthly recurring revenue of USD 6,93m at 31 March 2026, down 2,7% year on year and 0,7% on December, giving annual recurring revenue of USD 83,12m; revenue in US dollars of 88,2m against 88,6m, down 0,5%; payments received of USD 87,9m, down 0,7%; Q4 dollar revenue of 22,56m, the highest since Q2 2024/25; a LiveChat customer churn rate of 4% on a monthly basis with net MRR churn described as significantly lower; LiveChat at 83,7% of group revenue with ChatBot 8,7% and HelpDesk with KnowledgeBase 7,5%; and an average USD/PLN translation rate 8,0% lower than the prior period) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedOver the same period monthly recurring revenue stopped growing and then fell, operating margin dropped from around 56% to 38,6%, and the product that is 83,7% of revenue went into decline.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, key performance indicators (monthly recurring revenue of USD 6,93m at 31 March 2026, down 2,7% year on year and 0,7% on December, giving annual recurring revenue of USD 83,12m; revenue in US dollars of 88,2m against 88,6m, down 0,5%; payments received of USD 87,9m, down 0,7%; Q4 dollar revenue of 22,56m, the highest since Q2 2024/25; a LiveChat customer churn rate of 4% on a monthly basis with net MRR churn described as significantly lower; LiveChat at 83,7% of group revenue with ChatBot 8,7% and HelpDesk with KnowledgeBase 7,5%; and an average USD/PLN translation rate 8,0% lower than the prior period) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedOver the same period monthly recurring revenue stopped growing and then fell, operating margin dropped from around 56% to 38,6%, and the product that is 83,7% of revenue went into decline.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, key performance indicators (monthly recurring revenue of USD 6,93m at 31 March 2026, down 2,7% year on year and 0,7% on December, giving annual recurring revenue of USD 83,12m; revenue in US dollars of 88,2m against 88,6m, down 0,5%; payments received of USD 87,9m, down 0,7%; Q4 dollar revenue of 22,56m, the highest since Q2 2024/25; a LiveChat customer churn rate of 4% on a monthly basis with net MRR churn described as significantly lower; LiveChat at 83,7% of group revenue with ChatBot 8,7% and HelpDesk with KnowledgeBase 7,5%; and an average USD/PLN translation rate 8,0% lower than the prior period) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedPriced at about 9,4 times trailing earnings on a 10,4% dividend yield, the shares now assume that continues.
    Market data for Text S.A. (WSE:TXT), stockanalysis.com, cross-checked against a second source (a share price of 41,76 złoty on 25,75 million shares for a market value of about 1,08 billion złoty, roughly 9,4 times trailing earnings and 3,3 times sales, on trailing twelve-month revenue of 327,47m złoty and net income of 114,70m; a dividend of 4,26 złoty at a 10,36% yield; a 52-week range of 35,50 to 55,00; and fiscal-year-end market capitalisations of 2 637m złoty at 31 March 2022, 3 687m at 2023, 2 318m at 2024, 1 362m at 2025 and 967m at 2026) — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedText reports resolving 74% of conversations automatically against a 59% industry average, and the closest available comparison - Fin, the agent from the company formerly called Intercom, which Text names as a competitor - is reported at 67% across roughly 8 000 businesses.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, the chief executive's letter (the statement that on the financial results the past fiscal year was not a successful one, with dollar revenue similar to the prior year but lower after conversion to złoty and costs incurred in both currencies; an artificial-intelligence resolution rate of 74% against an industry average of 59%, a figure said to include customers who have not yet trained the models on their own data; the intention to measure success in dollars earned rather than dollars saved on customer support, building an ecosystem that becomes a growth engine for customers rather than a cost centre; and the assessment that Text operates in a market with strong competitors, many with enormous resources they can and sometimes must allocate to customer acquisition, that Text must be smarter, more creative, harder-working and more efficient, and that success is not guaranteed) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedText reports resolving 74% of conversations automatically against a 59% industry average, and the closest available comparison - Fin, the agent from the company formerly called Intercom, which Text names as a competitor - is reported at 67% across roughly 8 000 businesses.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, the chief executive's letter (the statement that on the financial results the past fiscal year was not a successful one, with dollar revenue similar to the prior year but lower after conversion to złoty and costs incurred in both currencies; an artificial-intelligence resolution rate of 74% against an industry average of 59%, a figure said to include customers who have not yet trained the models on their own data; the intention to measure success in dollars earned rather than dollars saved on customer support, building an ecosystem that becomes a growth engine for customers rather than a cost centre; and the assessment that Text operates in a market with strong competitors, many with enormous resources they can and sometimes must allocate to customer acquisition, that Text must be smarter, more creative, harder-working and more efficient, and that success is not guaranteed) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedFin's shift to charging 99 cents per resolved outcome took its net revenue retention from 112% to 146%.
    Text pricing (Essential at USD 19 per user per month billed annually, or 25 monthly, including 10 AI Agent resolutions a month; Growth at USD 79 per user per month, or 99 monthly, including 200 resolutions a month; Enterprise on custom pricing; additional resolutions at USD 49,50 for a package of 50, or 0,99 each; a resolution counted when the AI Agent provides an answer that directly solves at least one customer question; and a 14-day free trial with full platform access and no credit card required) — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedText charges exactly 99 cents per resolution on its new suite.
    Text pricing (Essential at USD 19 per user per month billed annually, or 25 monthly, including 10 AI Agent resolutions a month; Growth at USD 79 per user per month, or 99 monthly, including 200 resolutions a month; Enterprise on custom pricing; additional resolutions at USD 49,50 for a package of 50, or 0,99 each; a resolution counted when the AI Agent provides an answer that directly solves at least one customer question; and a 14-day free trial with full platform access and no credit card required) — September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  12. ReportedThe meter exists; it simply is not yet attached to the 83,7% of revenue that still bills by the seat.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, key performance indicators (monthly recurring revenue of USD 6,93m at 31 March 2026, down 2,7% year on year and 0,7% on December, giving annual recurring revenue of USD 83,12m; revenue in US dollars of 88,2m against 88,6m, down 0,5%; payments received of USD 87,9m, down 0,7%; Q4 dollar revenue of 22,56m, the highest since Q2 2024/25; a LiveChat customer churn rate of 4% on a monthly basis with net MRR churn described as significantly lower; LiveChat at 83,7% of group revenue with ChatBot 8,7% and HelpDesk with KnowledgeBase 7,5%; and an average USD/PLN translation rate 8,0% lower than the prior period) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedOperating cash flow of 161,6 million złoty exceeded net profit of 116,6 million, there is no debt, and the share count has never changed from 25 750 000.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, team, intellectual property and shareholders (a team of 271 people at 31 March 2026, up 6,7%, consisting of independent persons and sole proprietors called Partners on civil-law contracts, with the company having no employees under employment contracts, a rotation rate of 22% and turnover of 15%, mostly working from Wroclaw on a hybrid basis with 95% Polish citizens; the disclosed risk that because no team member works under an employment contract copyright does not vest automatically, transfers require individual agreements, Polish law forbids contracting for all future works of a given type, and an absent contract leaves the company dependent on the creator's will and open to dispute; a seventh United States patent granted in June 2026 for configuring a communication widget directly on a website; and 25 750 000 shares of 0,02 złoty each, one vote per share and none privileged, with a shareholders' consortium holding 10 625 752 shares or 41,27% of votes and two Polish pension funds above 5%) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedOperating cash flow of 161,6 million złoty exceeded net profit of 116,6 million, there is no debt, and the share count has never changed from 25 750 000.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, team, intellectual property and shareholders (a team of 271 people at 31 March 2026, up 6,7%, consisting of independent persons and sole proprietors called Partners on civil-law contracts, with the company having no employees under employment contracts, a rotation rate of 22% and turnover of 15%, mostly working from Wroclaw on a hybrid basis with 95% Polish citizens; the disclosed risk that because no team member works under an employment contract copyright does not vest automatically, transfers require individual agreements, Polish law forbids contracting for all future works of a given type, and an absent contract leaves the company dependent on the creator's will and open to dispute; a seventh United States patent granted in June 2026 for configuring a communication widget directly on a website; and 25 750 000 shares of 0,02 złoty each, one vote per share and none privileged, with a shareholders' consortium holding 10 625 752 shares or 41,27% of votes and two Polish pension funds above 5%) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  15. ReportedA company can be technically excellent, correctly priced and still shrink - and the base loses 4% of its customers a month.
    Text Group Management Board report for 2025/26, key performance indicators (monthly recurring revenue of USD 6,93m at 31 March 2026, down 2,7% year on year and 0,7% on December, giving annual recurring revenue of USD 83,12m; revenue in US dollars of 88,2m against 88,6m, down 0,5%; payments received of USD 87,9m, down 0,7%; Q4 dollar revenue of 22,56m, the highest since Q2 2024/25; a LiveChat customer churn rate of 4% on a monthly basis with net MRR churn described as significantly lower; LiveChat at 83,7% of group revenue with ChatBot 8,7% and HelpDesk with KnowledgeBase 7,5%; and an average USD/PLN translation rate 8,0% lower than the prior period) — FY2025/26 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026