⚠ The Comparable History Is Five Years LongLow threat

RTX (RTX) — threat to the moat

RTX in its present shape has only five comparable years of results, all but one of them in a favourable market.

Anyone judging RTX's moat has a short record to work with. United Technologies spun off Carrier and Otis and merged with Raytheon Company on 3 April 20201, so figures before 2020 describe a different company. The 2020 results include Raytheon only from April and a $3,183 million goodwill impairment2. The segments were reorganised from four to three in July 2023, and the 2023 annual report recast only 2021 and 20223.

Why RTX history breaksApril 2020Carrier andOtis spun offApril 2020Raytheon mergerJuly 2023three segments2021-2025comparable yearsRTX Forms 10-K FY2020 and FY2023
Five usable years.

That leaves five comparable years, 2021 to 2025, and one of them, 2023, carries the powder-metal charge. A moat is supposed to show over a full cycle; RTX's has been observed through a pandemic recovery and a defence upcycle, both favourable.

The risk is overconfidence in a trend built on good years. Operating profit rose from $5,136 million to $9,300 million over the period45, in a period of recovering air travel and rising defence budgets.

The share count jumped with the merger as well. Diluted shares were 863.9 million in 2019 and 1,357.8 million in 20206, so per-share figures before and after the merger describe different ownership bases. Earnings per share series that run back past 2020 compare two different companies.

The first genuine test will be a commercial downturn. Until one arrives, the fair measure is Collins's aftermarket growth in any year of flat air traffic; if it falls sharply, the recovery was doing more of the work than the moat.

References
  1. ReportedUnited Technologies spun off Carrier and Otis and merged with Raytheon Company on 3 April 2020, so figures before 2020 describe a different company.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - the three-segment recast of 2021-2022, the GTF family powering more than 1,700 aircraft for 70 operators, backlog of $196 billion, the Carrier and Otis separation and Chinese sanctions on Raytheon Missiles & Defense. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe 2020 results include Raytheon only from April and a $3,183 million goodwill impairment.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 - continuing-operations results for 2018-2020 and the $3,183 million goodwill impairment. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe segments were reorganised from four to three in July 2023, and the 2023 annual report recast only 2021 and 2022.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - the three-segment recast of 2021-2022, the GTF family powering more than 1,700 aircraft for 70 operators, backlog of $196 billion, the Carrier and Otis separation and Chinese sanctions on Raytheon Missiles & Defense. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  4. ReportedOperating profit rose from $5,136 million to $9,300 million over the period, in a period of recovering air travel and rising defence budgets.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2023 - the three-segment recast of 2021-2022, the GTF family powering more than 1,700 aircraft for 70 operators, backlog of $196 billion, the Carrier and Otis separation and Chinese sanctions on Raytheon Missiles & Defense. — FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  5. ReportedOperating profit rose from $5,136 million to $9,300 million over the period, in a period of recovering air travel and rising defence budgets.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - consolidated financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, dividends and repurchases, long-term debt of $37,700 million, goodwill by segment, pension income, the 2024 resolution of certain legal matters, the Raytheon contract termination and the accelerated share repurchase. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedDiluted shares were 863.9 million in 2019 and 1,357.8 million in 2020, so per-share figures before and after the merger describe different ownership bases.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2020 - continuing-operations results for 2018-2020 and the $3,183 million goodwill impairment. — FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026