✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

RTX (RTX) — the future bets

RTX's next years depend on a longer-lasting engine, a bigger defence budget and more repair capacity, not on a new invention.

RTX's next few years depend less on invention than on execution. Its four bets are an engine upgrade that should make the GTF last longer, a defence budget request of $1.1 trillion1, a maintenance network being expanded to clear the grounded fleet, and a new narrowbody engine that may not be needed until well into the next decade.

RTX 2026 adjusted sales guidance, midpoint ($bn)92.5January93.0April95.5JulyRTX earnings releases Q4 2025, Q1 2026, Q2 2026
Raised twice in six months.

The first is already in service. The GTF Advantage was certified by the FAA and EASA in 20252 and, according to management, will "double the time on wing performance" with full production cutover by 20283.

The second depends on Washington converting requests into contracts. RTX is working to turn five munitions framework agreements into definitive contracts4, none of which is yet in its $289 billion backlog5.

The third is the recall's other side. Pratt & Whitney's PW1100 maintenance output rose more than 40% and turnaround time fell 23%6, and RTX spent more than $100 million on GTF repair capacity in the second quarter alone7.

The fourth is the one with the least visible money. RTX's company-funded research and development was $2,807 million in 2025, 3.2% of sales, down from 4.1% in 20238.

Management has already raised its expectations twice this year. The 2026 outlook for adjusted earnings went from $6.60 to $6.80 a share in January to $6.70 to $6.90 in April and $7.10 to $7.25 in July91011. Analysts' consensus for 2027 is $103.18 billion of revenue and $7.85 of adjusted earnings a share12, which assumes the bets keep paying after the recall recovery ends.

The future bets are narrow and widening. The number that would tell whether they are paying is RTX's organic sales growth, guided at 8 to 9% for 202613; growth of that order into 2027, after the recall recovery ends, would mean the budget and the upgrade are doing the work.

Moat trajectory: Widening

2026 organic growth guidance raised to 8-9%.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Organic sales growth guidance, current year
8% to 9% (2026, raised from 5-6%)

Whether the bets are lifting the whole company; a cut would mean the budget or the fleet plan is slipping.

Source: RTX Q2 2026 earnings release ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
GTF Advantage: Double the Time on Wing
The GTF Advantage is meant to double the time the engine stays on the wing, which wins back airlines and, per engine, reduces Pratt's aftermarket.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
A $1.1 Trillion Budget and Five Framework Agreements
A $1.1 trillion budget request and five munitions frameworks are RTX's biggest defence opportunity, and none of it is yet in the backlog.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
Clearing the Grounded Fleet: More Repair Capacity
Pratt & Whitney is building repair capacity to clear its recalled engines, and the same shops will serve the GTF fleet's routine overhauls later.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
The Next Narrowbody Engine, Pushed Right
RTX expects the next narrowbody aircraft to keep slipping, and its own research spending has fallen from 4.1% to 3.2% of sales while it waits.
References
  1. ReportedIts four bets are an engine upgrade that should make the GTF last longer, a defence budget request of $1.1 trillion, a maintenance network being expanded to clear the grounded fleet, and a new narrowbody engine that may not be needed until well into the next decade.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe GTF Advantage was certified by the FAA and EASA in 2025 and, according to management, will "double the time on wing performance" with full production cutover by 2028.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 1 business: the three segments and their products, the GTF family powering more than 2,600 aircraft for over 90 operators, the F135 as sole-source engine on all F-35 variants, GTF Advantage certification, the IAE collaboration shares, employees (about 180,000 in 52 countries, 69% in the U.S.) and the divested businesses. — FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe GTF Advantage was certified by the FAA and EASA in 2025 and, according to management, will "double the time on wing performance" with full production cutover by 2028.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - commercial: GTF fleet, maintenance output, aftermarket, orders, Collins and the outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRTX is working to turn five munitions framework agreements into definitive contracts, none of which is yet in its $289 billion backlog.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedRTX is working to turn five munitions framework agreements into definitive contracts, none of which is yet in its $289 billion backlog.
    RTX Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog of $289 billion ($170 billion commercial, $119 billion defence), remaining performance obligations, the $0.4 billion powder-metal accrual, the Blue Canyon Technologies sale, Patriot awards and the remaining repurchase authority. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedPratt & Whitney's PW1100 maintenance output rose more than 40% and turnaround time fell 23%, and RTX spent more than $100 million on GTF repair capacity in the second quarter alone.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - commercial: GTF fleet, maintenance output, aftermarket, orders, Collins and the outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedPratt & Whitney's PW1100 maintenance output rose more than 40% and turnaround time fell 23%, and RTX spent more than $100 million on GTF repair capacity in the second quarter alone.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - commercial: GTF fleet, maintenance output, aftermarket, orders, Collins and the outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedRTX's company-funded research and development was $2,807 million in 2025, 3.2% of sales, down from 4.1% in 2023.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - consolidated financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, dividends and repurchases, long-term debt of $37,700 million, goodwill by segment, pension income, the 2024 resolution of certain legal matters, the Raytheon contract termination and the accelerated share repurchase. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedThe 2026 outlook for adjusted earnings went from $6.60 to $6.80 a share in January to $6.70 to $6.90 in April and $7.10 to $7.25 in July.
    RTX fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - adjusted EPS of $6.29, free cash flow of $7,940 million, adjusted segment results and the January 2026 outlook. — FY2025 · publ. 27 January 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe 2026 outlook for adjusted earnings went from $6.60 to $6.80 a share in January to $6.70 to $6.90 in April and $7.10 to $7.25 in July.
    RTX first-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $22.1 billion and the April 2026 outlook. — Q1 2026 · publ. 21 April 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedThe 2026 outlook for adjusted earnings went from $6.60 to $6.80 a share in January to $6.70 to $6.90 in April and $7.10 to $7.25 in July.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $24.7 billion, segment results, cash flow, balance sheet and raised 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  12. Third-party estimateAnalysts' consensus for 2027 is $103.18 billion of revenue and $7.85 of adjusted earnings a share, which assumes the bets keep paying after the recall recovery ends.
    RTX analyst forecast - 2026 revenue $96.15B and adjusted EPS $7.24; 2027 revenue $103.18B and EPS $7.85. — 2026-2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  13. ReportedThe number that would tell whether they are paying is RTX's organic sales growth, guided at 8 to 9% for 2026; growth of that order into 2027, after the recall recovery ends, would mean the budget and the upgrade are doing the work.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $24.7 billion, segment results, cash flow, balance sheet and raised 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026