⚠ Paying 33 Times Earnings With No BuybackLow threat

RTX (RTX) — threat to the moat

RTX's share count has started to drift up because the stock now costs 33 times earnings and management has stopped buying.

The 2023 buyback worked because the shares were cheap. The market valued RTX at $120.99 billion at the end of 20231. Today it is worth $255.27 billion2, about 33 times trailing earnings3.

RTX market value at year end ($bn)121202315420242462025255Sep 2026stockanalysis market-cap history
Twice as expensive as at the buyback.

At that price a buyback returns less per dollar, and management has stopped buying: none in the first half of 20264. That removes a source of per-share growth that investors enjoyed in 2023 and 2024.

It also leaves a question about the surplus cash. Free cash flow of $8.50 to $8.75 billion is guided for 20265; after dividends of about $3.6 billion, several billion dollars a year remain for debt reduction, acquisitions or a return to buybacks.

The remaining authorization shows how little capacity is left. About $0.6 billion remains under the October 2023 programme6, less than one percent of the market value. Any meaningful return to buybacks will need a new board authorization, which would be the clearest signal of how management values its own shares.

The share count is the thing to watch. Shares outstanding rose from 1,342,287,676 at the end of 20257 to 1,347,758,144 at 30 June 20268; if it keeps drifting up through employee awards with no buyback, per-share growth will lag the company's.

References
  1. ReportedThe market valued RTX at $120.99 billion at the end of 2023.
    RTX market capitalisation history - year-end values $108.60B (2020), $128.81B (2021), $148.36B (2022), $120.99B (2023), $154.03B (2024), $245.90B (2025), and peer market caps (GE Aerospace $331.81B, Boeing $158.02B, Lockheed Martin $121.09B). — 2020-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedToday it is worth $255.27 billion, about 33 times trailing earnings.
    RTX Corporation (RTX) market data - $189.40 a share at the close on 25 September 2026, market cap $255.27B, revenue (ttm) $93.50B, net income $7.74B, EPS $5.68, 23 analysts with a $234.82 target, 52-week range $155.64-$226.88. — September 2026 · publ. 25 September 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcToday it is worth $255.27 billion, about 33 times trailing earnings.
    Moat Explorer calculation from RTX's Form 10-K FY2025, Q2 2026 earnings release and market data ($ millions unless stated). Goodwill plus intangibles 53,343 + 31,845 = 85,188; 85,188 / 171,079 = 49.8% of total assets; other assets 171,079 - 85,188 = 85,891. Reported against adjusted EPS 2025: 6.29 - 4.96 = 1.33, of which 1.15 acquisition accounting. Return on equity 6,732 / ((65,245 + 60,156) / 2) = 10.7%. Net debt: 37,700 + 204 - 7,435 = 30,469 (December 2025); 31,858 + 5,296 + 229 - 8,305 = 29,078 (June 2026). Net interest 1,749 / operating profit 9,300 = 18.8%. Dividends paid 3,574 / free cash flow 7,940 = 45%; free cash flow covers dividends 7,940 / 3,574 = 2.2 times. Pension items 753 + 1,182 = 1,935; 1,935 / net income 6,732 = 29%. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: revenue 88,603 + 46,784 - 41,887 = 93,500; net income 6,732 + 4,198 - 3,192 = 7,738. P/E 255.27 / 7.738 = 33.0; P/S 255.27 / 93.50 = 2.73. Year-end P/E = market value / net income and P/S = market value / revenue: 2021 128.81 / 3.864 = 33.3 and 128.81 / 64.388 = 2.00; 2022 148.36 / 5.197 = 28.5 and 2.21; 2023 120.99 / 3.195 = 37.9 and 120.99 / 68.920 = 1.76; 2024 154.03 / 4.774 = 32.3 and 1.91; 2025 245.90 / 6.732 = 36.5 and 2.78; 2020 108.60 / 56.587 = 1.92 (loss year). Revenue growth since 2023: 93.50 / 68.92 - 1 = 36%; market value 255.27 / 120.99 = 2.1 times. Share price against 52-week high 189.40 / 226.88 - 1 = -16.5%. Peers: Lockheed Martin plus General Dynamics 121.09 + 92.75 = 213.84 (below RTX's 255.27); RTX / Northrop Grumman 255.27 / 73.08 = 3.5 times. Q2 2026 operating margin 2,811 / 24,708 = 11.4%. Price over 2025 adjusted EPS 189.40 / 6.29 = 30 times. 2024 legal and termination cash 1.5 / free cash flow 4.534 = 33%. Pension sensitivity about 1.0 billion per 25 basis points, so about 4 billion per point; 4,000 / equity 65,245 = 6%. Enterprise value over trailing sales 285.82 / 93.50 = 3.1 times; price over 2026 consensus adjusted EPS 189.40 / 7.24 = 26 times. Purchase obligations after 2026 about 47 - 29 = 18 billion. Forecast extension: 2028 revenue 103.18 x 1.07 = 110.40 and EPS 7.85 x 1.084 = 8.51, extending 2027 consensus growth (not consensus). — 2020-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in RTX's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, earnings releases, earnings call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  4. ReportedAt that price a buyback returns less per dollar, and management has stopped buying: none in the first half of 2026.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $24.7 billion, segment results, cash flow, balance sheet and raised 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedFree cash flow of $8.50 to $8.75 billion is guided for 2026; after dividends of about $3.6 billion, several billion dollars a year remain for debt reduction, acquisitions or a return to buybacks.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $24.7 billion, segment results, cash flow, balance sheet and raised 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAbout $0.6 billion remains under the October 2023 programme, less than one percent of the market value.
    RTX Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog of $289 billion ($170 billion commercial, $119 billion defence), remaining performance obligations, the $0.4 billion powder-metal accrual, the Blue Canyon Technologies sale, Patriot awards and the remaining repurchase authority. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedShares outstanding rose from 1,342,287,676 at the end of 2025 to 1,347,758,144 at 30 June 2026; if it keeps drifting up through employee awards with no buyback, per-share growth will lag the company's.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - consolidated financial statements and notes: income statement, cash flow, dividends and repurchases, long-term debt of $37,700 million, goodwill by segment, pension income, the 2024 resolution of certain legal matters, the Raytheon contract termination and the accelerated share repurchase. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedShares outstanding rose from 1,342,287,676 at the end of 2025 to 1,347,758,144 at 30 June 2026; if it keeps drifting up through employee awards with no buyback, per-share growth will lag the company's.
    RTX Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog of $289 billion ($170 billion commercial, $119 billion defence), remaining performance obligations, the $0.4 billion powder-metal accrual, the Blue Canyon Technologies sale, Patriot awards and the remaining repurchase authority. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026