⚠ The Next Generation's HabitsLow threat

Nvidia (NVDA) — threat to the moat

A habit never formed cannot bind — and the next generation increasingly learns at a level that never touches CUDA.

Muscle memory protects Nvidia only so long as new practitioners keep forming it, and the quiet danger is that the next generation may learn at a level of abstraction that never touches CUDA at all. Increasingly, students and new engineers work through high-level libraries and hosted services where the hardware is entirely hidden, so they never acquire the low-level Nvidia-specific instincts their predecessors did — and a habit never formed cannot bind.

Change in papers citing each NVIDIA chip, 2025 vs 2024H100 / H200+115%RTX 4090 (consumer)+30%All NVIDIA chips-13%Air Street Press, State of AI Compute Index v4, June 2025
Researchers still reach for NVIDIA hardware, including a consumer gaming card, even as the total number of chip-citing papers fell.

If the imprinting moves up the stack, the specific loyalty to Nvidia weakens even as the field grows. A practitioner fluent only in a high-level framework has no particular attachment to what runs beneath it; whichever hardware the framework or the cloud selects is invisible and therefore interchangeable to them. The muscle memory that once ran all the way down to the metal now stops at the API.

The floor under Nvidia is that someone, somewhere, still has to make the low-level tools fast, and those someones — the systems engineers, the performance specialists, the framework builders — remain steeped in CUDA and remain the people whose choices decide the hardware. The abstraction hides the chip from the many while a skilled few still choose it, and those few are exactly the ones Nvidia has courted for years.

Low, and slow. Rising abstraction genuinely thins the layer of practitioners who form hardware-specific habits, and over a long horizon that could loosen the grip — but the experts who actually determine the hardware — drawn from CUDA's millions of registered developers1 — remain firmly in Nvidia's world, and habits at that level change at the pace of careers, not quarters.

References
  1. ReportedCUDA counts millions of registered developers.
    NVIDIA — CUDA platform (introduced 2006–2007; millions of registered developers, management-disclosed) — 2006–present · publ. 2006–2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 18, 2026