The 22% Customer Nobody Can NameThin moat
Nvidia (NVDA) — moat facet
Revenue this concentrated moves in steps, not curves: one buyer pausing doesn't trim growth, it removes a fifth of the line.
The concentration line in Nvidia's fiscal 2026 annual report is stark: one direct customer at 22% of total revenue, another at 14%1. The year before, the largest direct customer was 12% and two more were 11% apiece; the year before that, a single customer at 13%. Concentration is not a stable background condition here — it is intensifying rapidly as the AI build-out consolidates into fewer, larger orders.
Nvidia identifies these buyers only as Customer A and Customer B. That is standard practice and legally sufficient, but it leaves owners of the business unable to assess their most important counterparties: whether they are financially sound, whether they are building substitutes, whether the orders are for their own use or for resale to someone else. The disclosure tells you the exposure exists without telling you what it is exposed to.
The risk is not that a customer disappears — it is that revenue this concentrated moves in steps rather than curves. One buyer deciding to pause, digest, or shift a generation of spending to a custom part does not trim Nvidia's growth; it removes a fifth of the revenue line. Watch the concentration percentages in each annual filing, because this is the number that converts an AI-demand wobble into an Nvidia earnings shock — and it has been moving the wrong way for two years.
The disclosure has moved the wrong way two years running: a single 13% customer, then 12% plus two at 11%, now 22% plus 14%. Nvidia's own filing says the trend may continue. Concentration this steep converts any demand wobble into a step-change in revenue rather than a gentle deceleration.
Two years of the disclosure moving one way: 13%, then 12% plus two at 11%, now 22% plus 14%. Nvidia identifies them only as Customer A and B, so owners cannot assess whether their largest counterparties are sound or building substitutes. Revenue this concentrated moves in steps, not curves.
Source: NVIDIA Form 10-K FY2026 ↗- ReportedFY2026: 22% and 14% from two direct customers; FY2025: 12% plus two at 11%; FY2024: a single customer at 13%.NVIDIA Form 10-K, FY2026 — "For fiscal year 2026, sales to one direct customer represented 22% of total revenue and sales to another direct customer represented 14% of total revenue"; FY2025: one at 12% and two at 11% each; FY2024: one at 13%. Direct customers include OEMs, ODMs, distributors and system integrators; indirect customers (CSPs, Neocloud builders, AI model makers, enterprises, public sector) buy through them, and NVIDIA "estimate[s] some individually representing 10% or more of our revenue". "Our revenue is concentrated among a limited number of direct and indirect customers and this trend may continue." — FY2026 (ended Jan 25, 2026) · publ. February 2026 · source ↗