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Built Where It Is SoldNarrow moat

Deere & Company (DE) — moat facet

Deere builds most of its large U.S. farm machines in the U.S., so the 2025 tariffs hit its parts and steel, about $600 million, rather than whole tractors.

Deere's factories are arranged around its customers. The 10-K says that "most of our large agricultural equipment is assembled in the U.S. for our U.S. customers"1. Most small tractors are made and sold in India, and most mid-size tractors are made and sold in Europe2. Outside the U.S. and Canada, agriculture and turf equipment is sold through distributors and dealers in over 100 countries3.

Deere direct tariff costs and recoveries ($M)about 600FY2025 direct cost5029M FY2026 netof recoveries3829M FY2026 recoveriesabout 1,100FY2026 expected,before refundsDeere Form 10-K FY2025; Form 10-Q Q3 FY2026; Q3 FY2026 call
Tariffs cost about $600 million in 2025 and are guided near $1.1 billion this year.

That footprint is a moat in a trade war. When the U.S. imposed broad tariffs in 2025, a competitor importing finished combines faced a duty on the whole machine. Deere faced duties mostly on components and steel. The bill was still real: about $600 million of direct incremental tariff cost in fiscal 20254, equal to 12.2% of equipment operating profit5. For fiscal 2026 Deere expects about $1.1 billion of direct tariff expense, excluding refunds6.

Part of it is coming back. After the Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs on 20 February 2026, Deere recorded tariff recoveries of $110 million in the third quarter and $382 million in the first nine months7. The direct impact in the nine months, net of recoveries, was $502 million8.

Local assembly also protects the relationship. A dealer can promise delivery dates on machines built a few hundred miles away, and a government buyer can be told the equipment is domestic. The costs are the same as for any manufacturer that builds near its customers: many plants, each running at a fraction of capacity in a downturn.

The physical footprint is weighted toward home. Of Deere's property and equipment at the fiscal 2025 year end, $4,198 million was in the U.S. and $1,435 million in Germany, with $2,446 million elsewhere9. Capital expenditures were $1,304 million in fiscal 2025, against $1,624 million in fiscal 202410, and are estimated at about $1.3 billion for fiscal 202611.

The protection is measured by the tariff bill. Above $1.5 billion in a fiscal year, the footprint would no longer be shielding Deere from trade policy.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Direct tariff expense about $1.1bn in FY2026 excluding refunds; $382M recovered in nine months.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Direct tariff expense, fiscal 2026 estimate
about $1.1bn excluding IEEPA refunds (August 2026), after about $600M in FY2025; $382M recovered in the first nine months

What trade policy costs a company that builds near its customers; above $1.5bn would mean the footprint no longer shields it.

Source: Deere & Company Q3 FY2026 earnings call transcript ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Tariffs on the Parts, Not the Tractor
Deere's tariff bill nearly doubles to about $1.1 billion in fiscal 2026 because local assembly does not cover imported parts and European-built…
References
  1. ReportedThe 10-K says that "most of our large agricultural equipment is assembled in the U.S. for our U.S. customers".
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - Item 1 business: dealers, distribution, parts, used-equipment trade-ins, sales incentives and manufacturing. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedMost small tractors are made and sold in India, and most mid-size tractors are made and sold in Europe.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - segment net sales and operating profit (Note 27), revenue by product line and geography (Note 5), backlog and goodwill. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedOutside the U.S. and Canada, agriculture and turf equipment is sold through distributors and dealers in over 100 countries.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - Item 1 business: dealers, distribution, parts, used-equipment trade-ins, sales incentives and manufacturing. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe bill was still real: about $600 million of direct incremental tariff cost in fiscal 2025, equal to 12.2% of equipment operating profit.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - Item 1A risk factors and legal proceedings: the farm cycle, interest rates, tariffs, technology adoption, competition and the right-to-repair litigation. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  5. Moat Explorer calcThe bill was still real: about $600 million of direct incremental tariff cost in fiscal 2025, equal to 12.2% of equipment operating profit.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Deere & Company reported figures ($ millions unless stated; fiscal years end on the Sunday nearest 31 October). Cycle: net income FY2025 over FY2023 5,027 / 10,166 - 1 = -50.6%; net sales and revenues 45,684 / 61,251 - 1 = -25.4%; FY2025 over FY2024 45,684 / 51,716 - 1 = -11.7%; equipment net sales 38,917 / 55,565 - 1 = -30.0%; Production & Precision Ag sales 17,311 / 26,790 - 1 = -35.4%, FY2025 over FY2024 17,311 / 20,834 - 1 = -16.9%; Small Ag & Turf 10,224 / 13,980 - 1 = -26.9%; Construction & Forestry 11,382 / 14,795 - 1 = -23.1%; PPA operating profit 2,671 / 6,996 - 1 = -61.8%; PPA sales 2020-2023 26,790 / 12,962 = 2.07 times, more than double; PPA U.S. net sales and revenues 7,753 / 13,917 - 1 = -44.3%; U.S. net sales and revenues 23,974 / 34,105 - 1 = -29.7%; Latin America 5,607 / 8,197 - 1 = -31.6%; production agriculture product line 16,960 / 26,450 - 1 = -35.9%; roadbuilding 3,552 / 3,794 - 1 = -6.4%; roadbuilding over Construction & Forestry net sales 3,552 / 11,382 = 31.2%. Construction & Forestry product lines FY2023 to FY2025: construction 4,570 / 6,842 - 1 = -33.2%; compact construction 1,922 / 2,451 - 1 = -21.6%; forestry 1,124 / 1,429 - 1 = -21.3%; roadbuilding -6.4%. Segment margins (operating profit over segment net sales): PPA 2020 1,969 / 12,962 = 15.2%; 2021 3,334 / 16,509 = 20.2%; 2022 4,386 / 22,002 = 19.9%; 2023 6,996 / 26,790 = 26.1%; 2024 4,514 / 20,834 = 21.7%; 2025 2,671 / 17,311 = 15.4%. SAT 2020 1,000 / 9,363 = 10.7%; 2021 2,045 / 11,860 = 17.2%; 2022 1,949 / 13,381 = 14.6%; 2023 2,472 / 13,980 = 17.7%; 2024 1,627 / 10,969 = 14.8%; 2025 1,207 / 10,224 = 11.8%. CF 2020 590 / 8,947 = 6.6%; 2021 1,489 / 11,368 = 13.1%; 2022 2,014 / 12,534 = 16.1%; 2023 2,695 / 14,795 = 18.2%; 2024 2,009 / 12,956 = 15.5%; 2025 1,028 / 11,382 = 9.0%. Equipment operations operating profit 2,671 + 1,207 + 1,028 = 4,906 (FY2025), 4,514 + 1,627 + 2,009 = 8,150 (FY2024), 6,996 + 2,472 + 2,695 = 12,163 (FY2023); equipment operating margin 4,906 / 38,917 = 12.6%, 8,150 / 44,759 = 18.2%, 12,163 / 55,565 = 21.9%; first nine months FY2026 (1,372 + 1,538 + 1,134 = 4,044) / 30,779 = 13.1%; Q3 FY2026 527 + 622 + 436 = 1,585 against Q3 FY2025 580 + 485 + 237 = 1,302, an increase of 283. Nine-month operating profit change: PPA 1,372 / 2,066 - 1 = -33.6%; SAT 1,538 / 1,182 - 1 = +30.1%; CF 1,134 / 681 - 1 = +66.5%. PPA share of segment operating profit FY2023 6,996 / 12,958 = 54.0%; FY2025 2,671 / 6,020 = 44.4%. FS segment operating profit 1,114 / 795 - 1 = +40.1%. Equipment gross margin (net sales less consolidated cost of sales): FY2023 55,565 - 37,715 = 17,850, / 55,565 = 32.1%; FY2024 (44,759 - 30,775) / 44,759 = 31.2%; FY2025 38,917 - 28,159 = 10,758, / 38,917 = 27.6%. Equipment share of net sales and revenues 38,917 / 45,684 = 85.2% (FY2025); 55,565 / 61,251 = 90.7% (FY2023). Financial Services band (total net sales and revenues less equipment net sales): 2020 35,540 - (12,962 + 9,363 + 8,947 = 31,272) = 4,268; 2021 44,024 - (16,509 + 11,860 + 11,368 = 39,737) = 4,287; 2022 52,577 - (22,002 + 13,381 + 12,534 = 47,917) = 4,660; 2023 61,251 - 55,565 = 5,686; 2024 51,716 - 44,759 = 6,957; 2025 45,684 - 38,917 = 6,767 = finance and interest income 5,748 + other income 1,019; share of revenue 6,767 / 45,684 = 14.8% (FY2025), 5,686 / 61,251 = 9.3% (FY2023). Financial Services share of consolidated assets 70,021 / 105,996 = 66.1%; share of net income 890 / 5,027 = 17.7%; return on equity 890 / ((7,069 + 7,454) / 2 = 7,262) = 12.3%; Financial Services borrowings 13,382 + 6,595 + 34,788 = 54,765; consolidated borrowings 13,796 + 6,596 + 43,544 = 63,936; FS share 54,765 / 63,936 = 85.7%; Financial Services equity over assets 7,069 / 70,021 = 10.1%, about a tenth (debt to equity 8.6 to 1). Interest compensation to Financial Services 414 / 687 - 1 = -39.7%. Financing receivables 44,575 (about $44.6bn) / 23,702 = 1.88 times. Write-offs six months FY2026 150 / 44,575 = 0.3%. Equipment operations: net debt 9,171 - 6,557 = 2,614 (FY2025); 2,614 / 4,137 = 0.63 years of net income, less than eight months; return on invested capital estimate FY2025 (4,137 + 372 x 0.8 = 4,435) / (18,887 + 9,171 - 6,557 = 21,501) = 20.6%; FY2024 (6,404 + 396 x 0.8 = 6,721) / (15,389 + 7,516 - 5,740 = 17,165) = 39.2%; 20% tax on interest is an approximation. Equipment operations cash flow 5,100 / 11,919 - 1 = -57.2%. Costs and people: R&D over equipment net sales 2,177 / 55,565 = 3.9% (FY2023), 2,290 / 44,759 = 5.1% (FY2024), 2,311 / 38,917 = 5.9% (FY2025), 1,704 / 30,779 = 5.5% (nine months FY2026); nine-month R&D 1,704 / 1,631 - 1 = +4.5%; R&D at the FY2023 ratio 38,917 x 3.9% = about 1,520, difference 2,311 - 1,520 = about 790, about 2 points of 38,917. Employees 82,956 - 73,146 = 9,810, about 9,800, 9,810 / 82,956 = 11.8%. Tariff cost about 600 / 4,906 = 12.2% of equipment operating profit; 1,100 / 4,906 = 22%, about a fifth. Trade receivables 7,723 / 6,103 - 1 = +26.5%. Wirtgen first-year operating profit 116 / 5,327 = 2.2%; CF operating profit 1,028 / 5,327 = 19.3%, about a fifth; CF goodwill 3,051 / 4,188 = 72.9%. Tenna goodwill 286 / 439 = 65%. Backlog CF 3.8 / 2.2 - 1 = +73%. Engaged acres per connected machine 520 million / 1.2 million = about 433. Capital returns: cash returned FY2023 dividends paid 1,427 + repurchases 7,216 = 8,643; FY2025 1,720 + 1,138 = 2,858; 2,858 / 8,643 - 1 = -66.9%; diluted shares 271.7 / 316.6 - 1 = -14.2%; dividend payout 6.48 / 18.50 = 35.0%. Fiscal 2016 net margin 1,523.9 / 26,644.0 = 5.7%. Diluted EPS FY2025 over FY2023 18.50 / 34.63 - 1 = -46.6%. Equipment segment identifiable assets 8,787 + 3,987 + 7,792 = 20,566, over Financial Services 70,021 = 29.4%, less than a third. Valuation: trailing twelve months to 2 August 2026 net sales and revenues 45,684 - 33,290 + 35,589 = 47,983; net income 5,027 - 3,962 + 3,808 = 4,873; diluted EPS 18.50 - 14.57 + 14.06 = 17.99; P/E 185,230 / 4,873 = 38.0; P/S 185,230 / 47,983 = 3.86; market value over FY2023 net income 185,230 / 10,166 = 18.2 times; market value change since FY2025 year end 185,230 / 124,792 - 1 = +48.4%; trailing net income 4,873 / 5,027 - 1 = -3.1%; analyst target 691.83 / 687.00 - 1 = +0.7%; Deere over CNH and AGCO 185.23 / (16.67 + 8.03 = 24.70) = 7.5 times; Deere over Caterpillar 185.23 / 388.62 = 47.7%, about half; Caterpillar over Deere 388.62 / 185.23 = 2.1 times. Year-end P/E and P/S: 2015 24.15bn / 1,940 = 12.45, / 28,863 = 0.837; 2016 32.65 / 1,524 = 21.42, / 26,644 = 1.225; 2017 50.49 / 2,159 = 23.39, / 29,738 = 1.698; 2018 47.52 / 2,368 = 20.07, / 37,358 = 1.272; 2019 54.28 / 3,253 = 16.69, / 39,258 = 1.383; 2020 84.31 / 2,751 = 30.65, / 35,540 = 2.372; 2021 106.137 / 5,963 = 17.80, / 44,024 = 2.411; 2022 119.777 / 7,131 = 16.80, / 52,577 = 2.278; 2023 104.011 / 10,166 = 10.23, / 61,251 = 1.698; 2024 111.610 / 7,100 = 15.72, / 51,716 = 2.158; 2025 124.792 / 5,027 = 24.82, / 45,684 = 2.732. Guidance: fiscal 2026 net income midpoints (4,000 + 4,750) / 2 = 4,375 (November 2025); (4,500 + 5,000) / 2 = 4,750 (February and May 2026); (4,750 + 5,000) / 2 = 4,875, $4.875bn (August 2026); 4,875 / 5,027 - 1 = -3.0%; nine months 3,808 / 4,875 = 78.1%; implied fourth quarter 4,750 - 3,808 = 942 to 5,000 - 3,808 = 1,192. U.S. share of net sales and revenues 23,974 / 45,684 = 52.5% (FY2025), 34,105 / 61,251 = 55.7% (FY2023) - cycle, costs, people, capital returns and geography. — FY2015-Q3 FY2026 · publ. October 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Deere & Company Forms 10-K, 10-Q, results releases, the 2026 proxy statement, the Q3 FY2026 call, and stockanalysis.com market data; each operand is stated in the source line.
  6. ReportedFor fiscal 2026 Deere expects about $1.1 billion of direct tariff expense, excluding refunds.
    Deere & Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, FactSet corrected transcript - engaged and highly engaged acres, See & Spray adoption, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, equipment cash flow guidance and the FTC settlement - outlook, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, cash flow and the FTC settlement. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 20 August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAfter the Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs on 20 February 2026, Deere recorded tariff recoveries of $110 million in the third quarter and $382 million in the first nine months.
    Deere & Company Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026, $ millions - the FTC settlement, legal matters and tariff recoveries. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe direct impact in the nine months, net of recoveries, was $502 million.
    Deere & Company Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026, $ millions - the FTC settlement, legal matters and tariff recoveries. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedOf Deere's property and equipment at the fiscal 2025 year end, $4,198 million was in the U.S. and $1,435 million in Germany, with $2,446 million elsewhere.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - selected financial data, MD&A and the supplemental consolidating data for equipment operations and financial services. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  10. ReportedCapital expenditures were $1,304 million in fiscal 2025, against $1,624 million in fiscal 2024, and are estimated at about $1.3 billion for fiscal 2026.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - capital allocation: dividends, share repurchases, the repurchase plan, capital expenditures and book value per share. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  11. ReportedCapital expenditures were $1,304 million in fiscal 2025, against $1,624 million in fiscal 2024, and are estimated at about $1.3 billion for fiscal 2026.
    Deere & Company Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026, $ millions - income statement, balance sheet, receivables, financing receivables, cash returned and the outlook. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 27 August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 5, 2026