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⚠ The UAW Contract Ends in November 2027Moderate threat

Deere & Company (DE) — threat to the moat

Deere's UAW contract covering about 7,600 workers expires on 1 November 2027, as the recovery is expected to begin.

The labour cost Deere cut in the trough could come back in one negotiation. About 7,600 of its active U.S. production and maintenance workers are covered by a collective bargaining agreement with the United Auto Workers that expires on 1 November 20271, and about 77% of U.S. production and maintenance workers are unionised2.

Deere U.S. union coverageWorkers under UAW contractabout 7,600Contract expiry1 Nov 2027Share of U.S. production and maintenance workers unionisedabout 77%Total U.S. employees27,000Deere Form 10-K FY2025, human capital
A negotiation timed for the upturn.

The timing is awkward. Management describes 2026 as the bottom of the agricultural cycle and expects "a measured recovery rather than a sharp rebound in 2027"3. A contract expiring just as orders recover gives the union leverage: a strike in late 2027 would interrupt the first strong production year in four.

Labour is one cost among many, but it is the one most visible to customers when it stops. A farmer who cannot get a combine for harvest buys the nearest alternative.

Unions are certified as bargaining agents for about 77% of Deere's U.S. production and maintenance employees4, and U.S. employees number 27,000 of about 73,1005. A dispute would reach most of the plants that build large equipment for American customers.

If the 2027 negotiation produces a strike, or a settlement that Deere says will raise production costs materially, the trough savings described on Ten Thousand Fewer People will have been temporary.

References
  1. ReportedAbout 7,600 of its active U.S. production and maintenance workers are covered by a collective bargaining agreement with the United Auto Workers that expires on 1 November 2027, and about 77% of U.S. production and maintenance workers are unionised.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - human capital: employees, unions and the UAW agreement, and the selected-data employee series. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAbout 7,600 of its active U.S. production and maintenance workers are covered by a collective bargaining agreement with the United Auto Workers that expires on 1 November 2027, and about 77% of U.S. production and maintenance workers are unionised.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - human capital: employees, unions and the UAW agreement, and the selected-data employee series. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  3. ReportedManagement describes 2026 as the bottom of the agricultural cycle and expects "a measured recovery rather than a sharp rebound in 2027".
    Deere & Company third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, FactSet corrected transcript - engaged and highly engaged acres, See & Spray adoption, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, equipment cash flow guidance and the FTC settlement - outlook, early order programs, construction backlogs, tariffs, cash flow and the FTC settlement. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 20 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedUnions are certified as bargaining agents for about 77% of Deere's U.S. production and maintenance employees, and U.S. employees number 27,000 of about 73,100.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - human capital: employees, unions and the UAW agreement, and the selected-data employee series. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedUnions are certified as bargaining agents for about 77% of Deere's U.S. production and maintenance employees, and U.S. employees number 27,000 of about 73,100.
    Deere & Company Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 (year ended 2 November 2025), $ millions - human capital: employees, unions and the UAW agreement, and the selected-data employee series. — FY2025 · publ. 18 December 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated October 5, 2026